【09.04.06 纽约每日新闻】 中国穷人救助美国富人

崬小裳

Real price of the bailout
http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2009/04/06/2009-04-06_real_price_of_the_bailout.html

Peter Siris Monday, April 6th 2009, 8:10 AM

Do you get angry when you realize you have to pay higher taxes to bailout multimillionaires from AIG and other financial institutions who plunged our country into a financial crisis? Do you get enraged that real estate speculators broke all the rules and now you, after working hard all your life, have to help clean up their mess?

Now think about how a Chinese peasant feels. Why a Chinese peasant? Because that is who is actually coming up with the money to bail out America.

In the U.S., the average income is $48,000 a year, and the people who caused the economic problems earn far more. Yet we have a mountain of debts and virtually no savings. This year alone we have to borrow an astounding $1.3 trillion just to finance our deficit.

In China, the average income is $2,100 a year and the average savings rate is 35%. That means people earning $2,100 a year are scrimping so they can lend money to people making $48,000 a year.

Has there ever before been such a case of poor people bailing out rich people? There have been military conquests, as in Roman Empire days, but there is no threat of military force here. China has money. We need money. Never before has one nation owed as much to another as we owe to China.

The argument in favor of bailing out Citigroup, AIG, GM, Fannie and Freddie is that they were too big to fail. That was the same argument the U.S. made to other nations to get them to keep bailing us out. OPEC needed to sell us oil.

China needed to sell us exports. American consumers supported the world and the world had to bailout the American consumer.

But that does not mean others are not mad. Many leaders in China think the U.S. financial system is AIG on steroids. They do not understand why they have to take their hard-earned money and invest it in Treasury bills that pay almost no interest and go down in value when currency fluctuations are included.

The massive stimulus package in China is convincing leaders their economy can survive even if ours is in a sharp recession. As a result, look for the Chinese to assert themselves politically and economically.

The Chinese have moved cautiously, but there are signs they are starting to use their leverage. A key issue will be the dollar’s role as the world currency. Countries like China believe we forfeited this right through our irresponsible spending and lack of regulatory controls. For now, they don’t have a good alternative. But over time, there is likely to either be a world currency or a series of regional currencies.

The means the dollar will begin a long decline. Commodity prices will begin to increase. Investments in emerging markets will outperform those in the U.S.

Interest rates will go up, perhaps substantially, creating risk for long-term bonds and, politically, we will lose much of our leverage.

I believe this will be the unfolding economic story of the next decade, and it will change many of the rules of investing.
Your Money columnist Peter Siris is an investment manager at Guerrilla Capital in Manhattan.

译文转自：http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_48670cb20100cv5r.html

当你意识到为救助AIG等金融机构里那些将美国带入金融危机的千万富翁，你不得不缴纳更高的税款时，会火冒三丈吗？当你得知辛辛苦苦工作了一辈子，却要帮那些无法无天的房产投机者收拾烂摊子时，你会被激怒吗？现在，来想想中国农民的（这种）感受吧。为什么是中国农民？因为他们正是花钱救助美国的人。

美国人均年收入4.8万美元，那些引发经济问题的人挣得远比这个多。然而，我们有堆积如山的债务，却没一分钱存款。仅仅为了填补财政赤字，我们今年一年的借债额度就高达令人震惊的1.3万亿美元。在中国，人均年收入为2100美元，储蓄率为35％。这意味着，为了借钱给人均收入4.8万美元的人群，年收入2100美元的人们正节俭度日。以前有过这种穷人援助富人的先例吗？从来没有哪个国家像我们欠中国这样欠别国那么多钱。

有人称之所以救助花旗、AIG和通用等公司，是因为它们规模巨大容不得破产。在关于其他国家向美国提供援助方面也存在相同论调：欧佩克需要向我们出售石油,中国需要向我们销售出口产品。美国消费者支撑着世界，世界就必须救助美国消费者。中国有钱，我们需要钱。

但是，这并不意味着其他国家的人不生气。在许多中国人看来，美国的金融系统是疯狂的AIG的翻版。他们搞不懂为什么要将辛苦挣到的钱投资到美国国债，那不但几乎没什么利息，考虑到币值波动时，甚至还会贬值。

中国人一直在谨慎行事，但有迹象表明他们正开始利用自己的杠杆。即使在美国经济急剧衰退时，中国亦相信在庞大经济刺激计划推动下其经济能恢复活力，中国将因此获取更大的政治和经济影响力。

一个关键是美元的世界货币地位。中国等国家相信，由于美国不负责任的支出和管理措施的缺失，美元已丧失了继续享有世界货币地位的权利。他们暂时没有更好的选项。但随着时间推移，很有可能出现一个新的世界货币或一系列地区性货币。那意味着美元将开始长时间衰落，大宗原料产品价格将上扬，在新兴市场的投资表现将使对美国的投资相形见绌。随着利率的上升，长期证券将面临风险并使美国丧失相当程度的政治影响力。我深信这是在下一个10年在经济领域所要发生的事，许多投资规则会被改变。