本帖最后由 aha 于 2009-4-17 23:38 编辑
【原文标题】China's pride to cause new fall?
【译文标题】中国的骄傲将引发新的危机？
【来源地址】http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article6109007.ece
【译者】aha
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
中国的骄傲将引发新的危机？
昨天从中国传来的经济消息，就像一份酸酸甜甜的酱汁满足了各家的胃口。乐观者们听到三月份工业生产的回升，及令人鼓舞的零售业反弹，一块糖就在口中融化。而悲观者们看到斗大的GDP增加数据，离1999年的最低值只一线之隔，舌尖就泛起苦涩。
大多经济学家似乎更关注甜的部分。中国强大的财政刺激方案看来已经出拳到肉，这比人们预计的要早得多。虽然出口仍是一片惨淡，不过或许不是那么至关重要。
还记得那个说法吗？说中国已经“减缓了震波”，西方就要从衰退中走出来。这说法当时颇为流行，结果去年中国也遭遇下滑，一时就没人再提起，如今这说法又登上风头浪尖。
城市中固定资产投资正在迸发，裁员的步伐明显减退，许多人将昨天的新闻视为中国经济触底的信号。
可是这个刺激方案——以及伴随而来的命令使银行像醉鬼一样大手大脚——也许会给以后带来隐患。
越来越多的观察者对于刺激金额的庞大规模以及银行空前的泄洪般的放款力度表示担心。UBS的经济学家Weng Tao就是其中一位。银行的放款规模远远超过实体经济能够提供的投资限度。
除非当局再次收紧，不然很可能造成一波的坏账潮和股市泡沫，房地产泡沫及其他资产泡沫。
中国为了证明她能够第一个从全球金融危机中摆脱出来，两眼一闭的往前冲，最后说不定又一手造就一轮新的危机。
China's pride to cause new fall?
David Wighton: Business Editor's commentary
Like sweet and sour sauce, the economic news dished up by China yesterday offered something to suit all tastes. The optimists savoured the sugary March rise in industrial production and the comforting rebound in retail sales. The pessimists chewed on the bitter reality that the headline GDP growth number was only a hair's breadth away from its lowest level since 1999.
Most economists appeared to focus on the sweet. China's mighty fiscal package appears to be stimulating things far sooner than many had expected. Exports are still horrendous. But maybe that doesn't matter so much.
Remember the idea that the Chinese had “decoupled” and would shrug off a slowdown in the west? The once popular notion, which was quickly dumped as China slowed last year, is back in fashion.
Urban fixed-asset investment is going gangbusters, and with the pace of layoffs apparently falling, many heard yesterday's news as the sound of China hitting bottom.
Yet the stimulus package - and the accompanying order that the banks lend like drunkards - may be storing up problems for the future.
Weng Tao, an economist at UBS, is among a growing number of observers who are concerned at the scale of the stimulus money and the unprecedented deluge of bank lending. Bank lending is rising many times faster than the real economy is creating places to invest.
Unless the authorities pull back again, it risks generating a wave of bad debts and inflating stock, property and other asset bubbles.
China's headlong rush to prove that it can be the first to emerge from the global financial crisis may end up creating a new one all of its own.
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发表于 2009-4-17 23:08
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