欧洲害怕自己被扔在一边，因为它们所有的公共媒体都在鼓吹欧洲的未来之势。欧盟有可能对中国没那么大的吸引力，一想起这个就令人伤脑筋。但毕竟，21实际本来就该不一样。确实，对于早先的那些领导人，如法国的雅克·希拉克，一个崛起的中国应该当作另一个撼动美国统治的力量来欢迎，这将引领我们进入“多极世界”，在这样一个世界中，欧盟将占据一个重要角色。即便那意味着对中国惟命是从——台湾该回避就回避，达赖喇嘛该撇开就撇——照做就是了。大多数的欧盟国家注重跟中国的商业外交，保证他们的领导对中国的访问能够赢得媒体关注和有利可图的合同。
Meanwhile, Europe’s trade deficit with China hit nearly €170 billion ($250 billion) last year. China has erected myriad barriers to European firms, notes a scathing new audit of EU-China relations by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), a think-tank. The trend is ominous. In five years, China wants 60% of car parts in new Chinese vehicles to be locally made. This is alarming news for Germany, the leading European exporter to China thanks to car parts, machine tools and other widgets.
与此同时，上一年欧洲对中国的贸易逆差将近1700亿欧元（2500亿美元）。中国已经针对欧洲公司设立了层层关卡，注意到了欧洲对外关系委员会（一个智库ECFR）对中欧关系进行地严苛的新评审。趋势不容乐观。未来5年时间内，中国希望60%中国新车的零配件由中国当地制造。对德国来说，这是个可怕的消息，因为汽车零部件，工作母机，还有其它小器具，是德国成为欧洲对华出口贸易的大户的原因。
As ever, Europeans disagree over how to respond. Some are willing to challenge China politically—for example, Germany, Britain, Sweden and the Netherlands. But they are mostly free traders. That makes them hostile when other countries call for protection against alleged Chinese cheating. In contrast, a block of mostly southern and central Europeans, dubbed “accommodating mercantilists” by the ECFR, are quick to call for anti-dumping measures. But that makes them anxious to keep broader relations sweet by bowing to China on political issues.
和过去一样，欧洲国家无法就怎样对付中国达成一致意见。一些国家希望在政治上挑战中国——如，德国，英国，瑞典，荷兰。但是它们多半赞同自由贸易。这就在别的国家因为所谓的“中国作弊”而要求（实行）贸易保护措施时，使它们显得亲敌。相比之下，大半欧洲中部和南部的国家则认同ECFR提出的“适当的重商主义者”说法，它们迅速要求采取反倾销措施。这样的话，为了拓宽与中国的关系，他们就需要在一些政治问题上向中国妥协。
The result is that European politicians often find themselves defending unconditional engagement with China. The usual claim is that this will slowly transform the country into a freer, more responsible stakeholder in the world. The secret, it is murmured, is to let Europe weave China into an entangling web of agreements and sectoral dialogues. In 2007 no fewer than 450 European delegations visited China. Big countries like France and Britain add their own bilateral dialogues, not trusting the EU to protect their interests or do the job properly. There are now six parallel EU and national “dialogues” with China on climate change, for example.
其结果就是，欧洲的政客们经常发现他们和中国争辩无条件交往。他们通常声称这样可以让中国慢慢变成一个更加自由，更具责任心的世界利益相关者。这嘀嘀咕咕中藏的秘密就是，让欧洲把中国绕进一个由协议和部门对话织成的网中。2007年，不少于450个欧洲代表团访问中国。像法国和英国这样的大国更是各自举行双边会谈，他们不相信欧盟能帮他们争取权益或者做好这项任务。目前有6个平行的欧盟和单个国家跟中国的“对话”，比如，关于气候变化的。
Alas, familiarity with Europeans does not preclude contempt. EU-China dialogues on human rights or the rule of law are a way of tying Europeans down with process, avoiding substance. China abruptly cancelled an EU-China summit scheduled for last December. The astonishing snub was presented by Chinese diplomats as punishment for France’s Nicolas Sarkozy for meeting the Dalai Lama when his country held the rotating presidency of the EU (with other EU countries left to take note).
哎呀，（中国）跟欧洲人套近乎并不妨碍他轻视他们。中欧关于人权和法治的对话将欧洲人束缚在悬而未决的过程当中，避免实质性的内容。中国去年11月突然取消了中欧峰会的计划。中国外交官采取这种令人惊讶的怠慢行为来惩罚法国总统萨科奇在其任欧盟轮值主席（其它欧盟国家只有记笔记的份儿）之时会见达赖喇嘛的做法。
Chinese interest in the EU peaked in 2003, when it looked as if the club would soon acquire a constitution, a foreign minister and a full-time president. But the honeymoon had ended by 2006, after China failed to get the EU to lift an arms embargo imposed after the Tiananmen Square killings of 1989. At policy seminars and closed-door conferences, state-sponsored Chinese analysts now drip condescension. America is a strong man and China a growing teenager, said one at a 2008 conference in Stockholm; Europe is a “rich old guy”, heading for his dotage. At a recent Wilton Park conference in Britain, a Chinese academic called the EU a weak power, unprepared to challenge American hegemony: China was not about to work with it on a new world order.
中国对欧盟的兴趣在2003年是个顶峰，在当时看来，这个团体仿佛会很快制订一部宪法，一个外交官，还有一个全职总统。但是蜜月期在2006年结束，中国没能使欧盟解除因为1989年的天安门事件（原文是天安门屠杀事件）而采取的对华武器禁运政策。在政策研讨会上，非公开的会议上，国家资助的中国分析家们都不怎么谦虚了。2008年斯德哥尔摩大会上有人说，美国是个强壮的人，中国是个成长中的青少年，而欧洲则是一个“有钱的老头”，正在变得越来越糊涂。在最近英国的威尔顿公园会议上，一位中国学者把欧盟称为一股微弱力量，还没准备好挑战美国的统治地位，而中国也不准备和他（欧盟）合作来维持新的世界秩序。
Unity meets disunity
联合还是瓦解
If you wanted to design a competitor to show up European weaknesses most painfully, you would come up with something a lot like China. It is a centralised, unitary state, which is patient and relentless in the pursuit of national goals that often matter more to the Chinese than anyone else. European governments do not even agree on what they want from China. They are fuzzily committed to EU “values”, but will readily trample on those in a scramble to secure jobs and cheap goods for their voters. They do not share the same vision of trade policy, or how best to press China on climate change. Worse, the biggest countries, especially France, Germany and Britain, compete to be China’s favourite European partner. This causes damage. It was mad that the British and Germans did not rush to back Mr Sarkozy when he was bullied over the Dalai Lama. They could easily have insisted that EU leaders meet whomsoever they want.
如果你想设计个竞争者来充分地显示欧洲人的劣势，结果肯定是像极了中国。这个中央集权的单一国，耐心地不屈不挠地追求国家的目标，这些目标通常对中国人更重要。欧洲的政府想从中国得到点什么，可是连这个问题他们自己都不能达成一致。他们晕晕乎乎地为自己树立了欧盟“价值观”，但是为了保证选民的工作和便宜的商品，他们也乐意摒弃那些条条框框。他们没有一致的贸易政策，或如何以最佳方式来就气候变化对中国施压。最糟糕的是，一些大国，特别是法国，德国和英国，竟然比赛谁是中国最喜爱的合作伙伴。这样害处多多。当萨科奇先生因为达赖喇嘛而受到威胁的时候，英国人和德国人竟然没有冲过去支持他，这着实很反常。他们本可以毫不费力的坚持说，欧盟的领导人想见谁就见谁。
Yet talk of a “Chi-merican” G2 running the world is overblown. For one thing, China will probably prefer to keep its own global options open. For another, senior Brussels figures rightly insist that the EU’s voice cannot be ignored in global economic discussions. It is China’s largest trading partner, after all, with two-way trade worth a huge €300 billion.
但是，“中美国”控制世界的说法被过分吹捧了。首先，中国大概更希望保持他的全球选择权的开放。另外，老辈的布鲁塞尔成员毫无疑问地会坚持欧盟的声音在全球经济商讨中不能被忽略。欧盟是中国最大的贸易伙伴，毕竟双边贸易的额度达到了3000亿欧元之多。
Ideally, European governments would be less feeble and fractious. Failing that, Europe could set itself more modest goals. Chinese officials are reportedly fascinated by European welfare and public-health systems, as well as by EU product regulation. Providing a model for red-tape or welfare reform may not be as much fun as jointly running a multipolar world. But with its pathetic record of handling partners such as China, Europe should welcome recognition of its relevance, however it is offered.
假如欧洲政府能够不再衰弱下去，沉得住气，这样最好。如果做不到这点，欧洲可以给自己制定一些适度的目标。据报道，中国的官员们都对欧洲的福利制度和公共卫生系统，还有欧盟的产品规章很着迷。（可是）提供一个官样和福利改革的模板一点儿都不如直接参与对多极世界的控制来得有趣。但是，看看欧盟和其伙伴，比如说中国，交往的可悲的记录，他应该乐于接受对自己参与性质的认识，不管是以什么形式被告知的。
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