【09.05.06澳大利亚人报】澳洲央行行长称：中国将使澳洲脱离困境

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【中文标题】澳洲央行行长称：中国将使澳洲脱离困境
【原文标题】China will save the day for Australia, says RBA chief
【来源地址】http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25435536-643,00.html
【译者】nbnbren
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【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。  V5 T( O5 }7 |5 W
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-162666-1-1.html

Scott Murdoch | May 06, 2009
Article from:  The Australian


THE Reserve Bank has refreshed the prospect that traditional safeguards of China and commodity prices will lead Australia's recovery from recession in the next year.

澳洲联邦储备银行做出了令人振奋的预测，基于来之中国和矿产价格的贸易保障，将于明年引领澳大利亚走出经济衰退的从新恢复。

The bank met the expectations of the financial markets yesterday by leaving interest rates on hold at 3 per cent despite some economists expecting a 25-basis-point cut.

昨日，在银行金融市场的前景预测会上，仍然保持3%的利率，而之前许多经济学家预测会降低25个基点。

The RBA has cut 425 basis points from the official cash rate since September last year, taking rates from a peak of 7.25 per cent to the current rate, which is a 50-year low.

联邦储备银行（RAB)至去年九月以来，官方现金利率已经消减了 425个基本点，现金利息从高峰的7.25%到现行的3%，创50年新低。

The majority of economists expect rates to be pared back to 2 per cent before the end of the year, but the RBA indicated future reductions would not necessarily be automatic.

大多数经济学家希望在年内利率消减到2%，但RBA指出将来仍然没有必要自动削减。

In a statement, RBA governor Glenn Stevens said the Australian economy and the world economy as a whole were front-loaded with stimulus through the co-ordinated rescue package led by the G20.

RBA 行长Glenn Stevens认为，G20以后，澳洲经济和全球经济在同等的经济救援计划下，经济刺激紧锣密鼓的进行着。

"The global economy contracted further during the first few months of this year. While the near-term outlook remains weak, there are further signs of stabilisation in several countries," Mr Stevens said.

Stevens先生说:“经过今年前几个月，全球经济还将紧缩，在近期前景仍然维持疲惫的时候，有些国家有稳定的迹象。”

"The Chinese economy in particular has picked up speed in recent months and many commodity prices have firmed a little.

“独特的中国经济近几个月加快了速度，许多矿产价格稳定了一点。”

"The considerable economic policy stimulus in train in most countries should help contain the downturn and support an eventual recovery."

“考虑到大多数国家的经济刺激政策已经准备就绪，应该对抑制低迷和支持复苏有帮助。”

The Australian dollar strengthened on the rates decision, given that the move to stay on hold maintains the differential between Australia and US, where the official interest rates are virtually zero.

澳元汇率强劲反弹，和官方利率几乎为零的美元相比截然不同。

The currency moved from US73.80c up to US74.20c before it was sold off slightly. At the local close it was at US73.96c.

汇率轻微升高，从US73.8到74.2（译者：100澳元换美元），当地闭盘时是US73.96.

The interbank futures market is now tipping that rates could stay on hold for the rest of the year.

银行间的远期拆借在本年度也会保持不变。

UBS economist George Tharenou said the RBA's emphasis on China showed the central bank thought the return of the world economic superpower could propel Australia's prospects in the next few years.

UBS 的经济学家George Tharenou说，RBA强调中国因素，显示了央行关切这个能扭转世界经济的超强力量，在未来几年能推进澳洲的前景。

"We think the RBA is seeing some signs of the outlook improving globally and stability in several places," he said. "They are placing more weight on China given our trade experience and they are seeing improvement in commodity prices.

他说“我们认为ＲＢＡ看到了一些地方稳定和全球前景改进的一些迹象，他们把更多的砝码压在中国给我们以往的贸易经历，和他们看到了矿产品价格的回升。”

"There are signs China is picking up and if there is the same pick-up in commodity prices then that would give a direct boost to the income side of the Australian economy."

“如果矿产品价格上升，那就迹象表明中国好转，同时对澳洲经济的收入方面带来直接的促进。”

In the statement, Mr Stevens said world markets had gained slightly in confidence and sentiment but there were still concerns about the strength of corporate balance sheets.

在声明里，Mr Stevens说，国际市场上面赢得了一些信心和情绪，但是仍然要关注法人负载表的力度。

"Conditions in global financial markets remain generally on a path of gradual improvement, with equity prices off their lows, term spreads declining and capital markets reopening," he said.

“全球金融市场小幅改善，股价仍在低位，收益下降，资本市场重新开始。”

"Confidence remains fragile and balance sheets remain under pressure from the effects of economic weakness on asset quality."

“信心仍然是脆弱的，资产负载表仍然面对来自资产品质方面经济虚弱而受的压力。”

Economists interpreted Mr Stevens' comments as foreshadowing further action by the major US banks to restructure their balance sheets, after the results of the Government's stress tests of 19 major financial institutions are published on Thursday.

经济学家解释了Mr Stevens的评论，未来的行动取决于美国主要银行重组他们的资产负债表，这个结果在政府对１９个非银行金融机构施压后将于周四公布。

"Now I don't want to overplay it and I'm sure the RBA doesn't either. There are certainly some very serious near-term risks, and as the bank points out, we need to see ongoing progress in balance sheet repair, particularly for US banks," Icap senior economist Adam Carr said.

ICAP高级经济学家Adam Carr说道“我不想夸大其重要性，我相信ＲＢＡ也如此，但是近期风险的确很严重，因此银行报告出来，我要看看其对资产负载表的修补取得的进展，特别是美国银行。”

"The RBA has already cut rates aggressively to deal with the fallout from these issues, and we have substantial stimulus to deal with."

“RBA已经准备随着这些公告的发布，消减利率，我们有坚固的措施来处理。”

"Prior to even seeing the maximum impact from this stimulus, we are starting to see the green shoots of recovery in both the global and domestic economy."

“首要的是看这些刺激措施产生的最大影响，我们开始看到了全球和国内经济复苏的萌芽。”

JPMorgan chief economist Stephen Walters said while the RBA had indicated rates could remain on hold, the expected rise in unemployment would be one of the main drivers of the bank's future decisions.

JPMorgan的首席经济学家Stephen Walters 认为，虽然ＲＢＡ指出维持现行利率不变，但未来上升的失业率将成为未来驱使银行利率调整的重要因素。

"Board members probably enjoy having the option of delivering modest interest rate relief as unemployment soars," he said.

他说“董事会成员也许面对失业率攀升的时候，也许将选择现行利率的降低。”

JPMorgan has forecast unemployment will reach 9 per cent, which would mean a million people out of work in Australia.

JPMorgan预测澳洲失业率将升到９％，即有一百万人失业。