【09.05.16 澳大利亚人报】中国经济恢复在不稳定层次

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【中文标题】中国经济恢复在不稳定层次
【原文标题】China's recovery is on shaky ground
【登载媒体】澳大利亚人报
【来源地址】http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25489885-5018066,00.html
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-165836-1-2.html
【译文】

CHINA'S economic turnaround, on the back of its spectacular boom, is not looking so assured after all.

中国经济已经好转，在其令人惊讶的繁荣外，毕竟看起来不是那么确定。

A glut of disappointing data emerged this week highlighting the narrow focus of the Government's 4 trillion-plus yuan ($770 billion) stimulus package, fuelling concerns it is not a sustainable base for the longer term.

本周，一些充满失望的数据出台，聚焦在政府4万亿元（7千7百亿美元）的经济刺激计划，激起更多关注，他不一定能长期支撑。

The questions are not about whether gross domestic product growth will be 7 or 8 per cent this year, but about more fundamental and longer-term issues.

问题不在于今年的GDP增长是否到7或8，而是基础的和长期的问题。

Perhaps the biggest near-term problem is that the country's once booming private sector is struggling.

也许最大的近期问题是国家曾经兴旺的私有企业目前苦苦挣扎。

The huge licks of cash coming from the Government are being mainly directed at the 170 state-owned enterprises controlled by the State Assets Supervision Commission and a raft of provincial-owned SOEs.

政府大量的现金重要给了170个由国资委控制的国有企业和大量的省属国企。

While the factory closures and pain in the export-orientated provinces in the south and coastal east of the country have been well documented, the problems are continuing to spread across the country.

与此同时，工厂关闭和在中国南方及东部沿海以出口为主的省份的痛苦已经很好证明，也许问题还将持续扩散到整个中国。

Beijing Hitech Company, in the suburbs of the Chinese capital, which specialises in using high-end technologies to stick together different materials such as glass to steel and alumina to silicon, has been forced to cut half its 70 workers.

在中国首都郊区的北京Hitech公司，他们专门从事运用高科技把不同物质像玻璃，钢铁，铝，硅粘合在一起，现在不得不消减其一半的70位工人。

"Business is no good, and my neighbouring factories complain that there is no business too," the company's production manager Yu Yongmiao said.

公司生产负责人于永苗说：“生意不是很好，临近的工厂公司也没什么生意。”

"Our best time was in 2006 and 2007, the first half of 2008 was not so bad, but the Olympics was a turning point."

“我们黄金时间是2006，2007，2008上半年也还行，但是奥运会是转折点。”

His company lost more than 2million yuan when all factories were forced to close during the Olympics. "Then the crisis came before our business could recover," Yu says.

在奥运期间不得不停运，他的公司失去了200万生意，于先生说：“当我们能从新开张时，经济危机来临了。”

"The central Government is investing, but mainly in infrastructure, not many buildings. Our products are used in building interiors and exterior decorations, not on roads and bridges.

“中央政府是在投资，但主要是基础建设，不是造楼宇，我们的产品主要用于楼房的内外装饰，没法用于道路和桥梁。”

"We cannot see the bottom."

“我们看不到尽头啊。”

Yet only one month ago, the country's cheerleaders, including many investment banks eager for deals, were convinced they were on the winning side on the back of first-quarter economic data.

但是仅仅在一月前，这个国家的啦啦队长，包括许多渴望交易的投资银行，在第一季度数据发布前，都确信胜利属于他们。

While gross domestic product hit a 17-year low, the underlying trend indicated that the dramatic slump in growth down from 13.1 per cent in 2007 and 9 per cent last year had bottomed. The Chinese Government's 4 trillion yuan stimulus package -- the biggest single boost to any country in global financial history -- was hailed as a resounding success.

同时，GDP增长位于17年新低，潜在性的延伸揭示了增长从2007年13.1%到去年9%的戏剧性下跌已经到了尽头，中国政府4万亿的刺激计划---全球任何一个国家的金融史上史无前例的最大单一促进计划----作为一个彻底成功典范获得热烈欢呼。

Australia and the free-spending Treasurer Wayne Swan have a lot -- possibly even their jobs -- riding on a sustained recovery by China, which has had, until recently, an insatiable appetite for Australia's resources. But after growing at an average of 9.8 per cent each year for the past 30 years, China's medium-term growth over the next few years will be more like 7 per cent than 10 per cent, Royal Bank of Scotland analyst Ben Stimpendorfer says.

澳大利亚和挥金如土的财政部长Wayne Swan有很多----甚至也许他们的工作-----得靠中国稳定的回复，其实已经有了，直到最近，中国对澳大利亚矿产表现贪得无厌的大胃口。苏格兰皇家银行分析师Ben Stimpendorfer认为，在中国经济过去三十年平均每年达9.8%的增长后，在以后几年的中期增长，更可能在7-10%。

Data for April saw exports continuing their slump, down 22.6 per cent from a year ago, industrial production growth weaker than expected and there was continued deflationary pressure.

4月数据显示出口持续下降，去年同比下降22.6%，工业增长比预期虚弱，还有持续通货紧缩的压力。

The only bright spot, really, was surging government-backed fixed asset investment. While no one is suggesting.

实际上，唯一的亮点是政府强大的固定投资支持。

China will stop growing soon, the recovery is patchy so far. Beyond the Chinese Government's impressive fiscal viagra, private investment is struggling, demand from the West will not return soon, reform has slowed and trade imbalances remain a problem.

没人暗示中国会马上停止发展，尽管目前回复不是那么和谐，除了中国政府影响深刻的财政指标，私有企业苦苦挣扎，来自西方的需求不会马上恢复，改革缓慢，贸易不平衡始终是个问题。

There have been less than encouraging signs from China and other north Asian steelmakers, which are among the biggest consumers of Australian minerals.

这里没有任何鼓舞人心的消息来自中国和北亚的钢厂，他们是澳洲矿石的大买主。

China's biggest steelmaker, Baosteel, which is leading iron ore price negotiations with Australia's producers, has cut its prices twice in the past two months.

宝钢——中国最大钢厂，他牵头和澳洲矿场谈判铁矿石价格的，在过去两月已经降价两次。

As well, China has stockpiled iron ore and other commodities and continues to demand a 40 per cent cut in iron ore prices -- none of which is good news for Australia's tax revenues and mining sector related employment.

还有，中国铁矿石和其他日用品的库存，要求降低40%的铁矿石价格--对澳洲的税收和矿产的就业没有一样是好消息。

Problematically too for the Rudd Government, it is now discovering, like its predecessors, just how hard it is to secure a free trade agreement with China.

对于陆克文政府来说，有太多问题，现在才发觉，就像他的前任，和中国安全的自由贸易协定是多么困难啊。

After blazing into office spouting Mandarin and lecturing the country about human rights on its home soil, Kevin Rudd declared the talks unfrozen last year. Yet Trade Minister Simon Crean was forced to change strategy on his recent visit to China, instigating a two-track approach that brings in a bottom-up business-to-business strategy as well as continuing to pursue fading FTA hopes at government level.

虽然陆克文大张旗鼓地用流利的普通话在他母语国土上讲人权（引起中国的不满），他公开宣称已经解冻，但是贸易部长Simon Crean在最近访问中国后不得不改变策略，鼓励双规制接近生意对生意的干杯（双赢）策略，同时在政府层面上那个继续推进希望渺茫的自由贸易协定。

There are real difficulties trying to get a good read on the Chinese economy, which is why most failed to predict its sudden downturn last year. It reflects the rest of the central command system: its operations are opaque and the powers that be only issue data that tells half the story.

试图很好解读中国经济的确很困难，这也就是为什么去年突然下滑没人能预测一样。他的反应像休眠的中央处理系统：运作迟缓，公布数据的动力只能讲一半故事。

The private sector, which makes up about 70 per cent of the Chinese economy, is in many ways near invisible. There are no unemployment figures, payroll figures, private consumption numbers or unemployment statistics beyond a single number.

私有企业，创造了中国经济70%，在很多方面是接近无声无息的。他们没有失业登记，工资簿，私人消费数字，或者失业人数统计仅仅是一个简单的数字。

China's share markets in Shanghai and Shenzen have risen faster than anywhere else, with a 57 per cent surge since November 20. But Jiang Xuewen, a Beijing-based private investor, is not sure the stimulus will have more effects than that in the market.

中国深圳和上海的股票市场比任何地方升的都快，自11月20以来，升了57%，但是北京的一个个人投资者江雪文，不太确信刺激计划会比股票市场更有用。

"Four trillion or 8 trillion yuan is like spraying sesame seeds into the ocean," he says. "Did you see that the hotels near the National Development and Reform Commission used to be full of officials from provinces and municipalities asking for investment? The government projects and state-owned enterprises got all the investment, but not private businessmen.

他说：“4万亿或者8万亿元就像在大海里撒芝麻一样，你看见过发改委附近的宾馆一直住满这各省自治区的官员要投资没有？政府部门和国有企业拿着所有的投资，没有私有企业的。”

"The full effect (of the downturn) has not yet fully come to the surface. There is worse to come with millions of peasants losing their jobs."

“经济低迷的影响还没有完全浮出水面，最坏的是数百万农民失去了工作。” （译者注:其实据说是2千万，差不多澳洲全部人口了，估计作者都不敢相信。）

Beyond the immediate effects, there is also growing concern that reforms are too slow and structural economic problems will take longer to repair.

透过那些直接影响，还是需要更加关注那些：改革太慢，经济结构问题还的花长时间修补。

"China is not likely to collapse economically, and we may see one or more rebounds over the next few years, but the glory days of growth are well and truly behind us until, I suspect, the financial system is sufficiently reformed that it leaves behind governance constraints that almost automatically assure systematic and massive capital misallocation," Beijing University economics Professor Michael Pettis writes in his China Financial Markets blog.

北大经济学教授Michael Pettis 在他关于中国金融市场的博客写道：“中国经济不可能垮塌，在未来几年我们将会看到一个或者更多的反弹，但是那种光荣的增长已经确实离我们而去，我怀疑，金融系统需要彻底改革，远离政府强制执行的自行担保和巨额资金的不当分配。”

"That will take many years. Meanwhile the transition to a healthier and more balanced economy, which was slated to be long and difficult in the best of cases, is likely to be longer and more difficult as a consequence of the fiscal and banking response to the crisis."

“这需要很多年，期间转换成更健康更平衡的经济，在最佳的期间中创建的更持久和坚实。就有可能面对危机，金融业和银行能做出更长久和更强硬的反应。”

There's still growth in China, Wayne, but not as we know it.

中国依然保持增长，但不是我们所知的那样。

大帅

类似言语我看了几十年了，结果是中国在不断发展。

玄奘

酸酸的葡萄，酸得那些人胃里充满了胆汁。