【09.05.20 ABC】中国和澳洲的经济

nbnbren

【中文标题】中国和澳洲的经济
【原文标题】China and Australia's economic
【登载媒体】abc
【来源地址】http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2576362.htm
【译者】nbnbren
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-168472-1-1.html
【译文】

MARK COLVIN:

And while Japan's been a key economic partner for Australia for decades now, China has been looming ever larger on our economic horizon.

近十年来，当日本一直是澳大利亚的关键经济伙伴，中国曾经在我们的经济视野更加辉煌。

Now the question of China's economic survival in the downturn is crucial to Australia's economic future.

现在，在经济低迷时期，中国经济幸存的问题对于澳大利亚的未来经济至关重要。

Last night on PM we heard the Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens saying the Chinese recovery was real.

昨晚在PM，我们听到央行行长Glenn Stevens所说中国经济恢复是真实的。

Stephen Joske is China forecasting director for the Economist Intelligence Unit in London, and he's back in Australia for the China Australia Business Congress.

Stephen Joske是位于伦敦的Economist Intelligence Unit （有翻成：经济学人信息部，或经济学人智库的）中国预测部主任，他为中澳商务委员会而在澳大利亚。

I asked him about China's economic prospects in light of the disastrous Japanese figures.

我问他根据惨不忍睹的日本情况，预测一下中国经济远景。

STEPHEN JOSKE: Japan and China are in very different circumstances. Japan's been very heavily exposed to the global downturn in trade and of course this is coming from the basis of an already fairly weak economy. It never truly recovered from that, that lost decade.

STEPHEN JOSKE说：日本和中国情况完全不一样。日本贸易受到全球低迷而深受其害，当然是由于其已经十分虚弱的经济基础，他从没有从那失去的十年中恢复过来。

China's is very different circumstances. It came off a much higher base. It can take a hit and still grow fairly strongly. I think the other thing in China is it's just such a big domestic economy, that the true story in China is actually what's happening with the domestic investment, not what's happening with global trade.

中国情况特殊，他还远离那个较高的基础，他能收住冲击，而且发展势头良好 。我思考的是另外一个中国的事情，那就是如此庞大的国内经济，在中国的真相是其国内投资发生了什么，而不是和全球贸易发生了什么。

MARK COLVIN: We are in the middle here of a political debate which does involve china, political economic debate and Glenn Stevens, who heads the Reserve Bank yesterday was talking about how the Chinese revival would aid Australia. What's your take?

MARK COLVIN（记者）：我们对于相关中国的政治争论，政治经济和Glenn Stevens的争论（央行头儿，昨天说中国经济复苏有利于澳大利亚）感到左右为难，你有何思路？

STEPHEN JOSKE: Glenn's quite right. I mean China's the oasis of growth in the world at the moment. The only major parts of the world economy outgrowing are China and India and China's twice the size of India; so China's where the action is. Growth in China will certainly help Australia but it's quite wrong to think we can just sit back and wait for China.

STEPHEN JOSKE：GLENN说的非常对，我的意思是在目前中国是世界上增长的绿洲，世界上经济重要成长部分主要是中国额印度，中国的规模2倍于印度。因此，这也是中国其作用的地方，中国的成长当然能帮澳大利亚，但是想当然我们能坐下来休息或者等着中国，那绝对是错误的。

Basically the other 85 plus per cent of the world is in extremely severe synchronised recession and until we get a much broader recovery, particularly in the developed world we're not going to see that crucial strengthening of commodity prices in a sustained way.

基本上其他85%以上的都极其严重的不景气，直到我们得到全面的恢复，特别是发达世界里，我们将看不到用持久的方式加强关键的矿产品价格。

MARK COLVIN: But a huge amount of our exports were commodities going to China?

MARK COLVIN：但是巨额的矿产我们都出口到了中国啊？

STEPHEN JOSKE: That's right.

STEPHEN JOSKE：是的

MARK COLVIN: but you're saying that it's the overall world price that's going to affect it?

MARK COLVIN：你在说全世界的价格都受其影响？

STEPHEN JOSKE: In such a depressed global environment, China can't really set prices. Can't really stimulate strong price growth because there's such low demand elsewhere.

STEPHEN JOSKE：在如此失望的全球经济环境，中国不可能设定价格。真的不能刺激强劲的价格增长，因为其他地方的需求不高。

MARK COLVIN: What do you think is the reality of the Chinese growth figures? Because they put out GDP figures and a lot of economists are sceptical about them.

MARK COLVIN：你真正思考的经济增长概貌是什么样的？因为他们只给出了GDP，而他们其余经济方面值得怀疑

STEPHEN JOSKE: I think that scepticism is 10 years out of date. There was genuine reasons to be sceptical during the last big Chinese downturn, round the time of the Asian crisis in the late '90s but it's completely different now.

STEPHEN JOSKE：我想怀疑主义在十年前就过时了，真正的怀疑是上次的中国大低迷，大约是90年代末的亚洲危机时刻，现在情况完全不同。

It's a much more sophisticated economy, more sophisticated statistics and if we look at what they've been announcing, you know they certainly have announced a clear cut domestic slowdown and if you look at the provincial level, we've even got one province with negative growth.

现在经济制度成熟多了，统计也成熟多了。如果我们看到他们发表了什么，你就知道他们明白宣告了国内的下降，如果你看看各省的水平， 我们甚至知道某省的下降多少。

So there showing a willingness to be much more upfront with bad news in a statistical sense.

？？

MARK COLVIN: The national figures then have gone from more than 10 per cent; gone from double figures down to what six or seven per cent now?

MARK COLVIN：这个国家以往都超过10%，现在从两位数降到6或7%?

STEPHEN JOSKE: The over year growth is a bit over six per cent yes.

STEPHEN JOSKE：过去一年的增长大概6%多一点。

MARK COLVIN: And you really reckon that is a realistic figure?

MARK COLVIN：你确定估计反应了现实？

STEPHEN JOSKE: Certainly does. All the signs?

STEPHEN JOSKE：当然，所有迹象表明

MARK COLVIN: So where is that growth coming from?

MARK COLVIN：那么那些增长来自哪里？

STEPHEN JOSKE: The key driver of Chinese growth is domestic investment and what we're seeing is the domestic economy is being relatively lightly hit compared to the export sector. Now there is a domestic downturn and that's focussed in the real estate and construction sector and that's the thing to watch in China.

STEPHEN JOSKE：关键的中国增长驱动是国内投资，我们看到国内经济相比出口部门来讲，受到冲击轻微的多。现在，国内有下降，主要集中在房地产部门，这事情主要看中国。

The real story in China is that if you go a couple of years back, the Government was quite concerned with excessive investment and particularly property bubbles. They worked to puncture that, probably a bit too successfully in retrospect; but the construction activity came right down and that's what the real Chinese downturn has been.

在中国的真相是，你回头过去几年看看，政府相当关注过度投资，特别是资产（房地产）泡沫，回顾过去，他们只要轻轻一戳，就能成功。但是现在建筑业真的下降，于是真正的中国低迷发生了。

MARK COLVIN: China had stopped growing even before the world had stopped growing?

MARK COLVIN： 中国增长甚至在世界停止增长以前就停止了？

STEPHEN JOSKE: It had slowed, that's right.

STEPHEN JOSKE：准确说，他放缓了。

MARK COLVIN: But where is the demand coming from now - you say its domestic but does that mean that Chinese middle classes are going out and buying new kitchens, or?

MARK COLVIN：但是现在那些需求从哪里来呢？你说是国内，但是意味著中国中产阶级都出去买新厨具，还是其他？

STEPHEN JOSKE: That's right.

STEPHEN JOSKE：是的

MARK COLVIN: 卭r flat screen TVs?

MARK COLVIN：平面彩电？

STEPHEN JOSKE: Yes, very much so. There' still a lot of very strong underlining growth in private consumption and investment hasn't stopped, it's come down and the stimulus package was implemented very quickly to make sure there was a floor under investment and seems to have worked.

STEPHEN JOSKE：当然，还有更多。还有许多强劲的潜在的个人消费增长，投资也没有停止。她已经倒过来了，刺激计划很快被彻底执行，确保投资下有个底层，看起来都处理好了。

MARK COLVIN: Because there's been a debate about this over the last couple of years hasn't there - as to whether the Chinese economy was now self-supporting and you're saying that they have achieved that, that near miracle?

MARK COLVIN；因为关于这个过去几年在这里有过争议，关于不管现在中国经济只是自己独立支撑，你认为他们可以达到近乎奇迹的目标？

STEPHEN JOSKE: Essentially yes. What we're seeing is that the recovery is going to be driven by this pick up later in the year in the real estate sector and there are really strong reasons for that. Now there certainly will be, the export sector will certainly be a drag on growth from now on and the stimulus package of course can't go on forever and that will drag on growth.

STEPHEN JOSKE：非常确定。我们会看到通过年内稍后启动房地产而引来恢复，有太多理由这样做，现在可以确信，出口部门肯定拖增长的后腿，当然刺激计划也不可能永远持续下去，这也会拖延增长。

But I think certainly we're forecasting that on balance there will be a mild recovery from now on.

但是我确信我们的预期，总之，从现在开始平缓的回复即将来临。

MARK COLVIN: Stephen Joske, China forecasting director for the Economist Intelligence Unit in London.

无可就要

相对来说,澳大利亚更需要中国,包括中国威胁论.

USSR

在中国的真相是其国内投资发生了什么，而不是和全球贸易发生了什么。

总算有人认识到了真相
中国的经济成长当然不是它们脑子里意味的靠出口廉价的含铅玩具拉动的。