【路透社】Japan exports show modest recovery

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Japan exports show modest recovery
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7fef8f3e-4a61-11de-8e7e-00144feabdc0,dwp_uuid=4d9dd3aa-5fbd-11dc-b0fe-0000779fd2ac.html

TOKYO, May 27 – Japan’s exports showed modest signs of recovery in April with shipments to China declining at a slower pace than a year earlier, reinforcing market views that the worst of the global slump in trade may be over.

Exports rose for a second month in April compared to the previous month, government data showed on Wednesday, an encouraging sign as Japan’s economy recovers from its worst ever contraction.

Shipments to China, Japan’s biggest trade partner, fell 25.8 percent in April from a year earlier, narrowing the margin of decline for a third straight month and suggesting Beijing’s $585 billion stimulus package is having an effect.

“There are signs of recovery in exports due to progress in inventory correction overseas and a pickup in shipments to China,” said Yoshiki Shinke, a senior economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

“Exports are likely to recover gradually from now on and the Japanese economy is expected to follow suit.”

Japanese exports fell 39.1 percent in April from a year earlier, against a median market forecast for a 41.9 percent fall.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports rose 1.9 percent in April from March.

The pace of annual declines in exports of cars and electronic parts is slowing overall, showing that trade is improving, a Ministry of Finance official told reporters at a briefing.

As for shipments to China, those of chemicals used to make plastics, mobile phones and digital cameras rose in April from a year earlier as China’s stimulus package filtered through the economy.

Japanese manufacturers have shown signs they are ready to increase production after a collapse in global trade last year forced them to slash output.

While sentiment has begun to improve in Japan’s largest Western markets, some analysts were cautious on whether global demand will recover enough to prompt Japanese companies to go beyond restocking after a heavy run-down of inventories.

“China’s economy is doing better than other countries mostly because of government spending,”said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

“But like Japan, China’s economy is driven mostly by exports, so unless we see a stable pickup in global demand its recovery will be limited. That bodes ill for Japanese companies."

Exports to the United States fell 46.3 percent in April from a year earlier, smaller than a 51.4 percent drop in March, although automobile shipments continued to fall sharply.

The trade balance logged a surplus of 69.0 billion yen ($728.6 million), compared with the median estimate for a 57.5 billion yen shortfall.

The Nikkei average gained 1.2 percent early on Wednesday, tracking the previous day’s jump on Wall Street.

Blue-chip exporters such as Sony Corp were buoyed as the dollar edged further above 95 yen, a level many exporters have based their earnings forecasts on for the financial year to next March.

Japan’s government raised its assessment of the economy for the first time in three years on Monday, saying the pace of deterioration in exports and industrial production are slowing.

The government joined the Bank of Japan, which also upgraded its view of the economy this month for the first time in almost three years.

Japan’s economy shrank at a record 4.0 percent in the first quarter as domestic demand and investment buckled, and some economists say a recovery depends on whether final demand picks up overseas.

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