本帖最后由 I'm_zhcn 于 2009-6-11 01:42 编辑
【中文标题】去北京讨价还价的日子到了
【原文标题】Time for a Beijing bargain
【登载媒体】May 28th 2009 From The Economist print edition
【来源地址】http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13740199
【译者】无鱼
【翻译方式】人工'!
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-169374-1-1.html
【译文】
China, America and the yuan* 中国，美国，人民币
Time for a Beijing bargain 去北京讨价还价的日子到了
Sino-American economic policy needs a new start. Tim Geithner’s visit to China provides an opportunity
中美经济政策需要一个新的开端。蒂莫西·盖特纳对中国的访问正是一个契机。
人民币汇率
2005年1月-100
实际贸易加权汇率
与美元的汇率
HOW times change. When George Bush’s treasury secretaries first visited China, Wall Street was booming, America’s economy was growing and the president’s emissaries routinely lectured their Chinese hosts on the need for freer financial markets and a more flexible yuan. But as Tim Geithner, the current treasury secretary, prepares to make his maiden trip to Beijing on May 31st, Wall Street is synonymous with greed and failure, America’s economy is on its knees and it is the Chinese who have been doing the lecturing. With America’s budget deficit soaring and the Fed’s printing presses running at full speed, China is complaining loudly of the risks that inflation and depreciation pose to its huge stash of dollars, and arguing for an alternative to the greenback as the world’s reserve currency.
风水轮流转啊。乔治·布什时期的财政部长们访华之际，金融市场一片繁荣景象，经济呈增长势头，这些总统的特派使们每每教导中国人要让金融市场更自由，人民币更具弹性。但是现任财长蒂莫西•盖特纳，准备于5月31日首次访问北京之际，“华尔街”已经成为“贪婪”与“失败”的同义词了，美国经济正屈膝甘拜下风，而中国已成为训导者了。随着美国预算赤字飙升，联邦印钞机全速运转，中国正高调地抱怨通货膨胀与货币贬值使得大量储备美元很危险，并主张用新的世界储备货币替代美元。
The tables may have turned, but the dynamics on both sides of the Sino-American economic relationship are remarkably similar. The lecturing tone is driven largely by politics at home. Just as American treasury secretaries needed to shout loudly about China’s currency in order to appease a potentially protectionist Congress, so Beijing officials must hector Americans about their profligacy to assuage rising domestic fury about the losses China faces on its reserve holdings. On both sides, the most egregious posturing is economically illiterate. America’s bilateral trade deficit with China does not prove that Beijing manipulates its currency, as many congressmen have argued. And despite the huffing in Beijing, the losses that China faces on its reserve portfolio have more to do with its own policy choices than America’s spendthrift ways.
局势可能已经翻转过来了，但是中美双方在经济关系上的动态却惊人的相似。本国的论调主要由政治所左右，正如在美国，为了安抚有贸易保护主义倾向的国会，财长们需要对中国货币政策高声斥责,在北京为了缓和国内对外汇储备的损失而产生的日益高涨的愤怒，官员们必须大声呵斥美国人的不道德。双方的姿态让人震惊双方的经济无教养。很多议员认为，美国对中国的双边贸易赤字，不能证明是中国操纵人民币的结果。面对储备金的损失，比起美国所采用的挥霍浪费的方式，中国有更多的方式选择货币政策。
Courageous choreography required
需要大胆的举措
Both China and America should use Mr Geithner’s three-day visit to set a new tone in which co-operation replaces rhetoric. The two countries need to act on a broad economic agenda from global warming (real progress is impossible without co-operation between the world’s two biggest carbon emitters) to funding the expansion of the International Monetary Fund (China has yet to come up with any cash and Congress has not authorised the $100 billion promised by the Obama administration). The priority, however, should be a healthier macroeconomic relationship between the world’s biggest sovereign borrower and America’s largest creditor. What is needed for a sustainable global recovery is well known. China must foster private-sector domestic demand with a stronger currency, among other things. And America must lay out a credible route to the eventual unwinding of its massive stimulus．
中美双方应该利用盖特纳这三天的访问契机，重新定下一个基调，即合作,而非争吵。双方需要遵从一个宽泛的经济行动方针，包括应对全球变暖问题（没有这两个世界上最大的碳排放国的合作，实质性的进展是不可能的），扩充国际货币基金（中国仍然需要为此拿出资金来，而奥巴马政府承诺的1千亿美元仍未得到国会的批准）。然而首先要做的应该是在世界最大借债国与美国最大债权国之间建立更健康的宏观经济关系。可持续的全球经济复苏需要什么，大家都了然于心。中国尤其须用更强健的货币培育国民经济私营部分的国内需求；而美国必须制订出最终可从大规模刺激计划中解脱出来的让人信服的计划路线。
In today’s febrile markets any misstep could cause the dollar to tumble and Treasury yields to soar further. So the moves must be carefully choreographed. China should be more forthright on the yuan. After a welcome appreciation alongside a stronger dollar in 2008, China’s currency has fallen on a trade-weighted basis in recent weeks as the dollar has tumbled. Mr Geithner’s hosts should make it clear that even if the dollar continues its slide against other currencies, the yuan will not follow suit. Instead it will gradually appreciate. To forestall any additional surge in Treasury yields, Mr Geithner should elaborate on how the Obama administration intends to cut spending and raise tax revenue in the medium term.
在当今过热的市场形势下，任何过失都可能导致美元的暴跌，而美财政收入进一步上涨。因此计划必须精心安排。中国应该更直接地运用人民币。2008年随着美元上涨，人民币的升值令人赞赏，而最近几周，美元下跌，人民币已落致贸易加权的基点。中国应向盖特纳表明，即使美元对其它货币的比率继续下滑，人民币不会跟风，相反会继续升值。为了预先防止美财政收入在此过程中会附带着增多，盖特纳应该详细说明奥巴马政府如何计划在任职中期消减开支并增加税收。
It will take political courage for the Chinese to eschew a weak currency and for an American treasury secretary to unveil fiscal details in Beijing. But the parlous state of the world economy demands nothing less.
中国避免使用软弱无力的货币政策，美国财长在北京阐明财政政策的细节，这都需要政治勇气，对于危机四伏的世界经济现状，非如此不可。
更正：the Fed’s printing presses 应为 美联储的印钞机
无鱼 发表于 2009-6-10 15:57  |
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