【09.06.15 新闻周刊】伊战的胜利

MiaT

【中文标题】伊战的胜利

【原文标题】Victory in Iraq

【登载媒体】新闻周刊

【来源地址】http://www.newsweek.com/id/200858

【译者】MiaT

【翻译方式】人工

【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。

【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=172677&page=1#pid2407823

【译文】

How we got here is a matter for history. But the democratic ideal is still within reach.

历史不可更改，但民主的未来依然光明。


Brothers in Arms军中兄弟

Most U.S. soldiers are leaving Iraqi cities this month, but thousands will remain as advisors to Iraqi soldiers and police, separated by much but yoked together in a still-daunting mission.

大多数美军士兵将于本月撤离伊拉克。但仍有数千人分散留守在各地，为了一个共同的目标，以顾问的身份帮助伊拉克部队和警察完成一项艰巨的任务。

"America is not the crude stereotype of a self-interested empire," said President Obama in his Cairo speech. There are many in the Muslim world who would disagree, convinced that America has imperial ambitions. They should track the media coverage of the Iraq War. America conquered and occupied an ancient land of crucial strategic import. For years, Washington has had the power to shape the destiny of 25 million Muslims. And yet the average American's question about the endeavor from the start has been: when can we leave (and still claim some degree of success)? From 2003 to 2007, it seemed that the answer to that question was "Not for a long time," which deeply frustrated most Americans. Then came the surge. And as levels of violence declined, so did interest in the war. Once it became clear that Iraq was reasonably—just reasonably—stable and that U.S. casualties were low, Americans promptly lost interest in the war and the country. You would have to search long and far to find much coverage of Iraq now outside of a few elite publications.

奥巴马总统在开罗发表演说时表示：“美国并非自私自利的帝国主义国家。”这种说法令许多穆斯林民众难以苟同，在他们看来，美国拥有帝国主义野心是毋庸置疑的。其实，这些人应该读读伊战的新闻报道。诚然，美国出于战略目的，征服并占领了这片古老的土地，多年来，拥有着掌控二千五百万穆斯林平民命运的权利。但是，从一开始，普通美国老百姓关心的问题就是：我们什么时候才能体面地离开？从2003年到2007年，他们得到的回答一直是“很快”。2007年，布什命令向伊拉克增兵，令多数美国人大失所望。然而，随着暴力事件的减少，人们对伊战的关注度也在降低。一旦伊拉克局势稍有稳定，且美军伤亡维持在较低水平，美国人便立即失去了对伊拉克和伊战的兴趣。现在，除了少数精英读物，有关伊拉克的报道已是寥若晨星。

At the peak of Britain's empire, its popular culture was filled with songs and verse extolling the glories of its imperial destiny. Across the world, thousands of young Britons delighted in governing India, Malaya, Kenya and other exotic lands. Americans, by contrast, particularly most American soldiers, cannot wait to leave the deserts of the Middle East and the mountains of Central Asia and get back to their suburban homes. As the economic crisis at home has deepened, the problems of Fallujah, Kirkuk and Mosul seem very distant.

大英帝国在鼎盛时期，主流文化中洋溢着对皇权统治的歌功颂德。放眼全球，千万英国青年享受着统治印度、马来西亚、肯尼亚等异域国土的快乐。与此形成鲜明对比的是，美国人，尤其是大多数美国士兵，却迫不及待地希望离开中东沙漠和中亚山区，回到他们位于美国郊区的家中。和家中的经济危机相比，费卢杰、基尔库克、摩苏尔的战乱与自己又有何相干呢？

But this inward turn is wrong. The United States has responsibilities. It is still occupying a proud and important land in the heart of the Middle East. It has 135,000 soldiers serving there. That country's fate still hangs in the balance, between failure and success. And American actions will make a crucial difference.

但是，这种只顾自己的想法是不对的。美国要承担很多责任，它依然占领着中东的心脏部位，有13.5万的驻军。伊拉克依然前途未卜，美国的作为将决定它的命运。

President Obama delivered an eloquent, intelligent speech last Thursday that succeeded in its core task, reaching out to mainstream Muslim communities across the world. Critics were quick to note that deeds were needed more than words, and the Obama administration will no doubt follow up with specific policies and programs for countries in the region. But ironically, the single most important place where Obama can have a transformative impact within the Muslim world is Iraq, which got only a brief mention in his address. A resolution of the Israeli--Palestinian conflict would certainly be pivotal, but America cannot make this happen by itself, and not on its own timetable. Nor can it, or any outsider, bring democracy to Egypt in the next few years. But Obama still has the power to shape a decent outcome in Iraq. In doing so, he could help change the political dynamic within the Arab world and present a new model of America's relations with a modern, Muslim, Arab country.

上周四，奥巴马总统发表了一篇妙语连珠的雄辩讲话，以求打动全球多数的穆斯林民众。但评论家很快指出，实际行动比说漂亮话重要得多。首先，虽然奥巴马政府会落实一系列中东政策，但具有讽刺意味的是，对于美国最有能力改善与伊斯兰世界关系的伊拉克问题，奥巴马在演讲里却极少提及。其次，妥善解决巴以冲突也至关重要，但美国目前既没有计划也没有办法凭自己的力量加以解决。再次，不论是美国，还是其它国家，都没有能力在近年内为埃及带来民主。但奥巴马却有能力为伊拉克问题画上一个体面的句号。通过上述措施，奥巴马能够为阿拉伯世界的政治氛围增添些许活力，创造一种美国与现代阿拉伯国家关系的新模式。

The Iraq War was one of choice, as Obama says, but an Iraq policy is now a matter of necessity. However the Obama administration handles the issue, its action or inaction will have a huge impact on the country. Iraq is going through a slow but crucial transformation, from war zone to new nation-state. The next set of policies that Washington and Baghdad decide upon will determine how well this turns out.

正如奥巴马所说，对伊战争或可不选择，但对伊政策必须重视。不论奥巴马政府怎样处理伊拉克问题，是作为还是不作为，都会对伊拉克产生巨大的影响。伊拉克正从战乱中逐渐转变为一个新国家，这个过程至关重要。华盛顿和巴格达接下来的一系列决策将决定这一过程的成败。

When the surge was announced in January 2007, I was somewhat cautious about it. I believed that more troops and a proper counterinsurgency strategy would certainly improve the security situation—I had advocated more troops from the start of the occupation—but I believed that the fundamental problem in Iraq was political discord among the country's three main sects and ethnic groups. The surge, in my view, would alleviate those tensions but also postpone the need for a solution. Only a political agreement among these groups could reach one.

2007年1月宣布增兵令的时候，我的态度相当谨慎。我相信，增派更多的部队、制定恰当的反暴乱策略，肯定能保证安全、稳定局势。（从美军一开始占领伊拉克起，我就主张增兵。）但我认为，伊拉克最大的问题在于国内三大教派以及各民族间的政治冲突。在我看来，增兵可以缓和当地的紧张局势，但也会延迟政治冲突解决的时间。要想解决政治冲突，各方面必须达成一致的政治协议。

I was wrong in some ways. First, the surge turned out to be a more sophisticated strategy—encompassing political outreach to the Sunnis—than I had imagined. Second, the success of the surge empowered the Baghdad government, brought Sunni rebels out from hiding and thus broke the dynamic of the civil war. Sunni militants have now been identified, their biometric data have been collected and their groups are being monitored. They cannot easily go back to jihad. The Shiite ruling elites, secure in their hold on the country, have less to gain by ethnic cleansing and militia rule. An adviser to surge commander Gen. David Petraeus told the reporter Nir Rosen that the civil war in Iraq would end when the Sunnis knew that they'd lost and the Shiites knew that they'd won. Both now seem to be true.

我当时的想法有待推敲。第一，增兵远不止保障安全这么简单，它还削弱了逊尼派的政治力量。第二，因为增兵一方面壮大了巴格达政府的声势，另一方面令逊尼派反政府力量无处躲藏，所以它加速了政治冲突解决的时间。反政府方面，逊尼派武装人员的身份一旦得到确认，相貌体征便会被登记在案，从此他们的一举一动都会受到监控，想返回杰哈德绝非易事。政府方面，什叶派精英大权在握，没有必要再进行种族屠杀和民兵统治。增兵总指挥大卫·彼得雷乌斯将军的一位顾问曾向记者尼尔·罗森表示，如果逊尼派认识到自己已经失败，并且什叶派确信自己赢得了胜利，伊拉克内战就会结束。现在看来，他说的没错。

傲慢的裁决

首先，美国应该收敛一下自己的全球战略。战线拉得太长了，顾头不顾尾的。
其次，所谓远交近攻，不能认准了谁是盟友就一头扎在人家上面。想要成为一个真正的霸主就要将自己的国家地位放在一个超然的高度上。
最后，做事要有策略，虽说是为了自己的国家利益无可厚非，但是不能太露骨，潜规则是潜规则，放到台面上就不好了。

notailwolf

多漂亮的文章啊，中宣部真应该多学点

美国永远是正义的

长期在韩国、日本、菲律宾、伊拉克……驻军——为了维护世界和平
在伊拉克呆不下去准备跑路了——证明完全没有野心和侵略意图

那么之前把伊拉克打得稀啪烂，饿死病死炸死几百万人呢？
呵呵，那仅仅是维护世界和平的必要代价
我们可以私下进行个人讨论

hello20012

诚然，美国出于战略目的，征服并占领了这片古老的土地，多年来，拥有着掌控二千五百万穆斯林平民命运的权利。
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但是，从一开始，普通美国老百姓关心的问题就是：我们什么时候才能体面地离开？随着暴力事件的减少，人们对伊战的关注度也在降低。一旦伊拉克局势稍有稳定，且美军伤亡维持在较低水平，美国人便立即失去了对伊拉克和伊战的兴趣。现在，除了少数精英读物，有关伊拉克的报道已是寥若晨星。
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这篇文章太有趣了，“出于战略目的，美国征服并占领”，呵，他们内心是承认了，只不过没有使用侵略这个词，没想到强如美国，也有架在火上烤的时候，为了体面的离开这个他们自己制造的火炉，又祭出了民意，因为普通老百姓并不关心伊拉克人民的死活，这句话可是大实话啊，只不过当初侵略人家的时候怎么不考虑？看来，侵略人家的时候是另一帮人的“民意”，有趣有趣。

思想无禁区

黄鼠狼对鸡们的自白。

傲慢的裁决

没办法，大国之间的角逐，小国只能是炮灰。唉~

百姓

首先，美国应该收敛一下自己的全球战略。战线拉得太长了，顾头不顾尾的。
其次，所谓远交近攻，不能认准了谁是盟友就一头扎在人家上面。想要成为一个真正的霸主就要将自己的国家地位放在一个超然的高度上。
最后，做 ...
傲慢的裁决 发表于 2009-6-15 16:07

真是搞笑，露骨的是都做了，还拍露骨的文字。

tnagele

奥巴马总统在开罗发表演说时表示：“美国并非自私自利的帝国主义国家。”


这句话,我相信绝大多数人不会认同的