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本帖最后由 I'm_zhcn 于 2009-6-18 01:55 编辑
【中文标题】中国对堪培拉的原因百思不得其解
【原文标题】Chinese puzzle over Canberra's reasoning
【登载媒体】澳洲ＳＭＨ 【来源地址】http://business.smh.com.au/business/chinese-puzzle-over-canberras-reasoning-20090614-c7cf.html
【译者】nbnbren
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。! m% S" X* v1 D, S1 u: [7 x$ [
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-174043-1-1.html
【译文】
According to the cardboard talking points trotted out by the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, and the Treasurer, Wayne Swan, Australia has a non-discriminatory investment policy that welcomes investment from everywhere, including China.
根据总理路克文和财长Wayne Swan不牢靠的论调可以看出，澳大利亚有一套没有歧视性的投资政策，欢迎来自各地的投资，包括中国。
Chinese commentators, business leaders and many Chinese officials plainly think that's rubbish.
中国的评论员，商业领袖和很多中国官员坦率的说那些就是废话。
One reason the Government is having so much difficulty selling its message of non-discrimination is that the foreign investment review process in Canberra is about as transparent as it is in Beijing, without the bribery.
原因之一是（澳洲）政府是如此困难推销其没有歧视的信息，即在堪培拉的外国投资审核过程和在北京一样的透明，没有贿赂。
Normally the opacity doesn't much matter because every deal goes through either unscathed or with token constraints.
通常，不透明不是什么大不了的事情，因为每样交易过程不是完好无损就是被约束。
Until last year there was only one exception that we know of: Shell's bid for Woodside Petroleum eight years ago.
只到去年，我们才知道只有唯一的例外：8年前SHELL投标Woodside石油。
But since Chinalco's initial raid on Rio Tinto last year there have been at least three Chinese investment applications that have been blocked or subjected to significant limiting conditions: Sinosteel for Murchison, Chinalco to raise its investment in Rio Tinto last year, and Minmetals for OZ Minerals in February.
但是自去年中铝最先突袭力拓（Rio Tinto）以来，至少有三个中国投资申请被锁定或者屈服于明显的附加条件。中钢对Murchison,去年中铝增资力拓，和二月五矿对OZ矿业。
There may be others that have never and will never be disclosed.
也许还有其他的，将永不，永不被揭露。
The highlight, of course, was Swan's rushed decision to block Minmetals' $2.6 billion bid for OZ Minerals because the large Prominent Hill mine was discovered to threaten a neighbouring missile range (the security-threatening mine was cut out and a new lesser deal accepted by Canberra and by OZ Minerals shareholders on Friday).
当然，亮点是财长Swan匆匆决定阻挡五矿26亿美元并购OZ 矿业，是因为（属于OZ）巨大的Prominent Hill矿场被发现危胁到临近的导弹射击场。（军事威胁的矿产被剔除出去，周五，一个新的小规模的交易被堪培拉和OZ公司的股东接受）（译者注：为了避免中铝教训，五矿似乎还临时加价15%）
Swan said at the time - when the Government was reeling under China-related political scandals - that he was acting on "national security" grounds after receiving advice from the Defence Department.
Swan当时说，当政府在和中国有关的政治丑闻中举步维艰时候，在收到国防部的建议后，当时的行为是建立在“国家利益”的基础上的。（译者注：和中国军方有联系华裔女商人邀请澳洲国防部长去中国访问，费用是女商人出的，国防部长没有申报，现在已经免职）
But he has never revealed whether Defence or the Foreign Investment Review Board had actually expressed any serious national security concerns.
但是他没有透露，国防部还是外资投资审核委员会，是否真正表示过任何严重对国家利益的关切。
In fact the review board's recommendations to the Treasurer are rarely made public. Its annual report only reveals the aggregate amount of investment it approves but does not mention what it knocks back.
事实上，外资投资审核委员会推荐给财长的很少曝光，它的年报只是发布它批准的投资总额，，对拒绝的不会提及。
When Chinese commentators look for hard facts the best they can do is turn to Bureau of Statistics figures that show that in 2008 China's direct investment into Australia represented less than 1 per cent of the total stock of foreign investment in Australia ($392.9 billion) and that Chinese companies have received three of the four known rejections.
当中国评论员寻找可靠的证据，他们能做到的最好的到统计局，数据显示在2008年，中国直接投向澳大利亚的占澳大利亚外国总投资额度（3929亿美元）的1%都不到；中国公司4分之3已知被拒绝。
And they see that the two main elaborations that Swan made last year to the "national interest test" - a special wariness to investors who are state-owned or who are consumers of the resources we produce - together apply in practice almost exclusively to Chinese investments.
同时，他们看到去年Swan做的对于“国家利益测试”的两大主要结果--一个是国有公司或者一个我们提供资源的客户，专门小心的投资者-----实际上几乎专门就是应用于中国投资。
Andrew Thompson, head of Minter Ellison's energy and resources practice in Perth, says foreign investment decisions can be purely political decisions made by the Treasurer after considering but not necessarily following a recommendation from the Foreign Investment Review Board.
Andrew Thompson，位于佩斯（西澳首府） Minter Ellison's energy and resources practice的领导，说，外国投资决定，是在财长考虑后做纯粹政治决定，而没有必要在在外资投资审核委员会获得推荐以后“
"It's a quasi-legal and political process, with FIRB advising the Treasurer who then makes a political decision," says Thompson, who has advised dozens of mainly Western companies on FIRB applications.
Thompson，给过许多主要的西澳公司在外国投资审核委员会提供建议，他说”这是个类法律和政治的过程，外资投资审核委员给财长建议，然后财长做政治决定“
Further, he says the political process begins at FIRB, even before it gets to the politicians.
未来，他说政治程序将在外国投资审核委员开始，甚至在在接触政客前就开始。
"One thing that is not commonly understood is that FIRB listens to, reads and is very much guided by its assessment of the community mood before applying that amorphous test of what is in the national interest," he says.
他说：“有件事不被普遍理解，外国投资审核委员会在应用这些无组织的关于国家利益的测试前，听到的，读到的和通过估计的公众情绪做侧大量指导。”
It's in the shadows of this opacity and Canberra's recent wariness towards Chinese investments that Chinese observers are dismissing Rudd's assurance that Rio Tinto's decision to dump Chinalco and join iron ore forces with BHP Billiton was entirely a commercial matter and had nothing to do with Canberra.
在不政策透明的阴影和在最近堪培拉注意中国投资的情况下，中国观察家不满路克文的担保，即力拓决定抛弃中铝，和用铁矿资源加入比和必拓是彻底的商业事务，堪培拉没做任何事情。
The Economist reported that Rudd wanted the deal to go through.
经济学人《The Economist》报道，路克文想交易继续的。
That may well be a message Rudd's office would like the outside world to have but it is not consistent with any dealings I have had with any of Rudd's ministers, staffers, friends or advisers, and certainly not from the companies involved.
路克文政府将可能向外界传递的信号，但是和我对熟悉的任何一个路克文政府部长，公务员，朋友和顾问得到的不一样，也和相关公司的一样不确定。
In the normal course of events we would never find out what went on inside FIRB.
按照事情正常发展的程序，我们永远将无法找出在外国投资审核委员会内部发生的事情。
On this occasion - as Rio's chairman, Jan du Plessis, hinted after he walked away from the Chinalco deal just over a week ago and Chinalco's President, Xiong Weiping, more clearly indicated at his press conference on Thursday - the original deal would have been killed in Canberra without substantial amendments.
在这种场合，---和力拓主席，Jan du Plessis，在前一周前，暗示了将绕开中铝一样，中铝主席熊伟平，在周四的记者招待会上更清楚指出，最初的交易在没有实质修改的话，在堪培拉已经被扼杀了。
"During our engagement and communication with FIRB we received advice in principle in terms of how the transaction should be modified," said Xiong.
熊说：“在我们和外国投资审核委员接触和沟通期间，我们就收到了根据规则，应该如何修正的建议”。
He linked Canberra regulatory concerns to what he revealed was his modified offer to Rio: a lower overall equity stake and halving his planned stake in Rio's Pilbara iron ore mines.
他透露了堪培拉管理者额关切，是要他修正对力拓的出价：更低的全面资产股份和原计划在力拓 Pilbara 铁矿石矿场股份的对半。
And, unusually, Rudd ministers publicly leant against the deal from the start.
很显然，路克文政府的部长们一开始就倾向反对这项交易。
Last week the Resources Minister, Martin Ferguson, said the Rio-BHP tie-up represents a better return to our natural resources for the Australian community.
上周，资源部长Martin Ferguson, 说，力拓和比和必拓联盟表示了，我们的自然资源更好的回归到为的是澳大利亚社会。
My own understanding, from both Australian and Chinese sources, is that FIRB expressed its intense displeasure at almost every substantial aspect of the Chinalco deal but never spelt out what it would take for the deal to pass.
我个人理解是，从澳大利亚和中国的消息来源看，外国投资审核委员几乎十分真实表达其对中铝交易的强烈不满，但从没有表露他为这次交易的通过做了什么。
FIRB's displeasure and the range of its concerns increased as time progressed - in correlation with the improving commodities, stock and debt markets - reaching critical levels in early May.
外国投资审核委员的不满和随着时间流逝增加的关注---于此相关的矿产价格回升，股票（回升）和债务市场---在五月早些时候的批评声
Xiong hoped his very large concessions would be enough for Canberra. In fact he had no idea. Would Canberra have allowed him to accept a seat on the Rio Tinto board? He and we will never know.
熊希望他十分大的让步能充分满足堪培拉，实际上他也不知道结果。堪培拉能允许他有一个力拓的董事位置吗？他和我们从无知晓。
Rudd may have been right in assuring China and the world that the Chinalco-Rio deal failed for "entirely commercial reasons". But Australia's China-like investment review process means we will never know the counterfactual.
路克文也许是对的，他向中国和全世界保证，中铝和力拓的交易失败是“完全的商业原因”，但是澳大利亚的中国类似的投资审核过程意味着，我们永远不知道事务的另一面。
Without the delay and uncertainty injected by the political process, which strengthened BHP's negotiating arm vis-a-vis Chinalco, how would those two parallel commercial negotiations have panned out?
如果没有通过政治过程注入延迟和不确定，加强了比和必拓和中铝面对面谈判的力量，这两个平行的商务谈判会是这个结局吗？ |
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发表于 2009-6-17 20:50
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