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本帖最后由 I'm_zhcn 于 2009-7-3 02:29 编辑
【中文标题】中国银行可能有点骑虎难下
【原文标题】China's banks may have a tiger by the tail
【登载媒体】The Telegraph
【来源地址】http://business.theage.com.au/business/chinas-banks-may-have-a-tiger-by-the-tail-20090630-d3v6.html
【译者】nbnbren
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-177318-1-1.html
【译文】
CHINESE banks are veering out of control. The half-reformed economy of the People's Republic cannot absorb the $US1000 billion ($A1231 billion) in new lending issued since December. Money is leaking instead into Shanghai's stock casino, or being used to keep bankrupt builders on life support. It is doing little to help lift the world economy out of slump.
中国银行正在向失去控制转变。中华人民共和国的半改革市场没有办法吸收自12月以来新发放的1万亿美元（12310亿澳元）贷款。金钱正散进上海股票赌场，或者用于破产了的建房者生活费用。对于把全球经济拔出泥潭微乎其微。
Fitch Ratings has been warning for some time that China's lenders are wading into dangerous waters, but its latest report is even grimmer than pessimists had suspected.
惠誉评级（Fitch Ratings）(注：一家全球知名的信用评级公司，总部分设于纽约和伦敦两地，在全球拥有50家分支机构和合资公司），已经多次警告中国的贷款正处于危险的涉水状态，但是其最新的报告比以前有所怀疑的悲观更加严酷。
"With much of the world immersed in crisis, China appears to be one of the few countries where the financial system continues to function largely without a glitch, but Fitch is growing increasingly wary," it said.
报告中说“由于世界上很多国家沉浸在危机中，中国看起来是他们的金融系统没有失灵，维持着主要功能的少数几个国家之一，但是惠誉评级（Fitch）日益增加其谨慎看法”。
"Future losses on stimulus could turn out to be larger than expected, and it is unclear what share the central and/or local governments ultimately will be willing or able to bear."
“未来在刺激计划方面的顾虑比预期的更多， 也仍不清楚中央政府或者地方政府最终将要或者能够负担多少比例”。
Note the phrase "able to bear". Fitch's "macro-prudential risk" indicator for China threatens to jump from category one (safe) to category three (Iceland, et al). This is a surprise to me but Michael Pettis from Beijing University says China's public debt may be as high as 50-70 per cent of GDP when "correctly counted".
评论用短语“能够负担”，惠誉评级（Fitch）为中国预示的“宏观-谨慎的风险”指数，从“安全”这一等级到三等级（冰岛等等）。这使我感到惊讶，但是来自北京大学的Michael Pettis 说中国的国债也许占到“准确计算”的GDP的50-70那样高的比例。
The regime is so hell-bent on meeting its growth target of 8 per cent, it has given banks an implicit guarantee for what Fitch calls a "massive lending spree".
这个政权是如此固执的为其8%的增长而会战，他给了银行一个被惠誉评级（Fitch）形容为“巨大的贷款盛宴”的暗示保证。
Bank exposure to corporate debt has reached $US4200 billion. It is rising at a 30 per cent rate, even as profits contract at a 35 per cent rate.
银行揭示了企业法人债务已经达到42000亿美元，上升到了30%的级别，而合约利润位于35%。
Fitch traces the 2009 bubble to the central bank's decision to cut interest on reserves to 0.72 per cent. Bankers responded to this "margin squeeze" by ramping up the volume of lending instead. More than half the new debt is short-term. Roll-over risk is rocketing. China's monetary stimulus since November is arguably more extreme than the post-Lehman printing of the United States Federal Reserve, though less obvious to the untrained eye.
惠誉评级（Fitch）根据2009年代的泡沫，预测央行决定准备下降利率0.72%，银行回应那是由于贷款替换向上引起的“边际压榨”一半多的新债务为短期贷款。随时翻船的风险在飞速上升。中国自11月份以来的金融刺激计划，同美国联邦储备（银行）在后雷曼时期的发行相比，可以论证更为偏激。尽管在没有经过训练的人眼里看来没有那么明显。
Under the Taylor rule, US policy remains tight (for the US). China's policy is loose (for China). New loans doubled in May from a year earlier, almost entirely to companies.
在泰罗规则下，美国政策保持绷紧（为美国），中国政策相对宽松（为中国）。5月份的新贷款额是年初的2倍，几乎全部给了公司。
China's Banking Regulatory Commission fired a warning shot last week. "The top priority at the moment is to stop explosive lending. Banks should carefully monitor the process of credit approval and allocation, and make sure that loans flow into the real economy," it said.
中国银监会上周发出严厉警告“在这个时期最优先考虑的是要停止爆发性贷款，银行应该仔细监控贷款批准和发放过程，确保那些贷款进入真正的实体经济”。
Unfortunately, 40 per cent of the "real economy" consists of exports, mostly to the US and Europe, the consequence of a mercantilist export model that has crashed and burned. Chinese exports were down 26 per cent in May.
不幸的是，40%的“实体经济”有出口企业组成，大多数是出口到美国和欧洲，重商主义的出口模式后果是堕落和烧伤。
World trade may be stabilising at last after contracting at faster rate than during the early Great Depression.
5月，中国出口下降26%。世界贸易在下降速度比早期打大萧条还要快以后，最终也将稳定。
But it will not rebound fast in a world where the US savings rate has risen to a 15-year high of 6.9 per cent. A trade policy based on the assumption debtors in the Anglo-sphere and Europe's Club Med can ruin themselves forever is absurd.
但是，世界性反弹也不会那么快，美国的储蓄利率上升了15年高点，升了6.9%。把贸易政策建立在假设英语圈的欧洲地中海俱乐部的债务人能永久性毁灭自己，那是荒谬的。
Andy Xie, a Sino-bear and commentator for Caijing, said Western analysts are in for a rude shock if they think China's surging demand for raw materials implies genuine recovery. Commodity speculators have been using cheap credit to play the arbitrage spread between futures and spot on the oil markets. They have even found ways to trade lumber to iron ore by sheer scale of leverage. Mr Xie thinks the spring recovery is an inventory spike, to be followed by a double-dip downturn into next year.
Andy Xie,“一个中国熊”和《财经》评论员，说，西方分析家如果认为中国疯狂的原材料需求意味着经济真正的恢复，那么他们将受到猛烈的冲击。日用品投机者已经使用廉价的信用（贷款）完成了期货和现货石油市场的套利。他们甚至找到了通过纯粹的杠杆来做木材换铁矿石的方法。谢先生认为春天般的恢复将如同沉沉的麦穗，将随着双面浸泡的经济低迷到明年。
Reformers know what must be done to increase consumption. China needs a welfare revolution. But creating a social security net takes time, and Beijing is facing a social crisis as 20 million unemployed retreat to the rural hinterland.
改革者知道该怎么做才能增加消费，中国需要社会福利革命，但是创建一个社会保障体系需要从容不迫，北京面对一个严重的社会危机，因为有2000万失业人员回到了穷乡僻壤。
So the regime is resorting to hazardous methods to keep excess factories humming: issuing a "Buy China" decree: using export subsidies; holding down the price of coke, bauxite, zinc and other resources to lower production costs; and suppressing the yuan, again. Protectionism is a risky game for a country that lives off global trade and runs a surplus near 10 per cent of GDP.
因此政府采取了冒险的办法让剩余的工厂保持开工，：发布了“买中国货”的政令，使用出口津贴，维持低价格的焦碳，矾土，锌和其他低开采成本的自然资源，同时在一次抑制人民币（不贬值)。对于一个依赖全球贸易，保持一个占GDP10%盈余的国家来说。保护主义是一个危险的游戏。
While the Shanghai composite index is up 70 per cent since November, Chinese imports are down 25 per cent from a year ago. China is still draining real stimulus from the global economy.
当上证指数自11月以来上升了70%，中国出口从一年前下降了25%，中国仍然耗尽了来自世界经济的真正刺激措施。
If the world's biggest surplus state ($US400 billion) is too structurally deformed to help offset demand shock as Western debtors retrench, we are trapped in a long deflation slump.
如果世界第一大贸易盈余国家（美元4000亿），因为西方债务人的节衣缩食，在帮助弥补消费需求方面的结构残缺不全的话，我们将陷入长期的通货紧缩状态。
翻译交流见 #11
"Unfortunately, 40 per cent of the "real economy" consists of exports, mostly to the US and Europe, the consequence of a mercantilist export model that has crashed and burned. Chinese exports were down 26 per cent in May.
不幸的是，40%的“实体经济”有出口企业组成，大多数是出口到美国和欧洲，重商主义的出口模式后果是堕落和烧伤。"
这句译的有点问题，应当是：这就是已遭灭顶之灾的重商主义出口模式的后果。
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