【09.07.03 澳大利亚广播公司】（澳前总理）Keating敦促（澳）对中国要有积极态度

nbnbren

【中文标题】（澳前总理）Keating敦促（澳）对中国要有积极态度
【原文标题】 Keating urges positive China stance
【登载媒体】澳大利亚广播公司
【来源地址】http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/03/2615556.htm
【译者】nbnbren
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-177755-1-1.html
【译文】

The former prime minister Paul Keating has warned against Australia taking a defensive stance towards China.

前总理Paul Keating （注：现任路克文前任霍华德的前任，１９９１年任总理）警告说澳大利亚对中国有些过于提防。

Mr Keating has taken a swipe at the Federal Government, saying its defence white paper makes ambivalent references about China.

Keating先生对联邦政府猛烈抨击，说国防白皮书在关于中国部分自相矛盾。

Speaking at Curtin University in Perth last night, Mr Keating said China's dominance would be inevitable, because the world's greatest economies have always become strategic powers.

昨晚在佩斯Curtin 大学的演讲中，Keating先生说中国的统治地位是不可避免的，因为世界上最大的经济体总要得到相应的战略权力。

But the former prime minister said this would be positive for the region and there would be opportunities for Australia.

但是这位前总理说应该正面积极面对这个政权，对澳大利亚来讲将是个机遇。

Mr Keating said that unlike previous prime ministers, he always believed the rise of China was certain.

Keating先生说同前任总理不同，他总是相信中国的风险是确定的。

"This great state, with its profound sense of self and the wherewithal to make a better life for its citizens - 1.3 billion of them - has eased itself into a major role in world affairs," he said.

他说“这个伟大的国家，具有深刻的自我判断力，有必要的资金为其人民改善生活，－１３亿人民。也使他们能轻而易举成为世界事务中的重要角色。”

"A role which I believe will be an altogether positive one for the world."

“我相信那种角色对世界来说将是完全正面积极的一个。”

Australia would need to make adjustments, as China would not allow itself to be cast as a client of the US.

澳大利亚需要作出调整，因为中国不会允许其成为美国的代言人。

But Mr Keating said the power shifts would provide openings.

但是Keating先生认为权力的变化将提供空缺。

"For a country like Australia, they nevertheless hold out huge opportunity. This is why I believe we must always be outgoing," he said.

他说“对于一个像澳大利亚那样的国家，他们不过是提供巨大的机遇而已，这就是为什么我坚信的我们必须不断进取。”

"We must be alert, dexterous and positive and never defensive. For these reasons I found myself at odds with some of the text of the Government's 2009 defence white paper."

“我们必须有所警示，灵活，积极而不是提防。基于这些理由，我对于政府２００９年国防白皮书里面的某些部分感到困惑。”

'Makes no sense'

“毫无意义”

Mr Keating said it made no sense for Australia to think of its national security in defensive terms.

Keating先生认为，对澳大利亚来讲，在国防白皮书里讲的国家安全思路是毫无意义的。

He said the white paper struck an ambivalent tone about Australia's likely strategic circumstances.

他说，关于澳大利亚有可能出现的战略环境，国防白皮书里展现了自相矛盾的论调。

"Including, for instance, failing to give us an indication as to whether it foresaw the growth of China's military capabilities was a natural and legitimate thing for a rising economic power," he said.

他说：“比如说，（国防白皮书）关于是否预知中国军力增长是自然的，相关经济增长来说也是合法合理的事情，这方面也没有给我们明确指示。”

"Or whether to the contrary, it was something we should regard as a threat and for which we should plan. It was not clear on this point."

“或者，从反面来说，我们把他当作是个威胁，这也很重要，我们应该有所计划，国防白皮书里面也没有明确指出。”

He said Australia could not know what new order might develop in the future.

他说澳大利亚无法知道未来新秩序将如何发展。

Mr Keating asserted China's rise would probably occur alongside the growth of other regional powers and this would not be a bad thing.

据说Keating先生认为中国的上升也许在其他地区增加影响，对世界来说也不是坏事情。

"A region of this kind might turn out to be as peaceful and as prosperous for Australia as the one we've had since the end of the Vietnam War," he said.

他说：“这种性质的地区对澳大利亚来讲，可能变得和平和繁荣，就像我们自越南战争结束以来的那样。”

"A place where all powers have a role and where Australia is open to have whatever relationship it wants with any one of them.

“那个地方集中了所有势力，澳大利亚不管想要和任何一方有什么样的关系，都对他们持开放态度”

"But then again it might not turn out like this. The region may become more problematic and this is why a defence policy is a must-have contingency against adverse developments."

“但是反过来另一方面，也许不太可能有类似和平趋向。本地区也许变得更加有问题，这就是为什么国防白皮书必须反对不良状况的偶然发生。”


Foreign policy

外交政策

But Mr Keating said a defence policy needed to be woven into foreign policy.

但是Keating 先生认为国防政策需要和外交政策编织在一起。

"Too often, Australia has created problems for itself when its defence policy has gotten ahead of its foreign policy," he said.

“太平常了，当澳大利亚的国防政策超过了其外交政策的时候，澳大利亚总是给自己制造麻烦。”

"And of course the prime examples of that are Vietnam and Iraq. There, defence policy made the commitments, not the foreign policy."

“当然，前车之鉴就是越南和伊拉克，国防政策是承担义务，不是外交政策。”

The former prime minister urged Australia to support co-operative regionalism and said Australia could move towards a more independent foreign policy stance.

这位前总理鼓励澳大利亚支持地区合作，认为澳大利亚能够推进更多的独立外交政策姿态。

"We should never return to a posture of fear or reaction of the kind that prevailed during the Menzies years," he said.
"Nor should we look to position ourselves as a comfortable accessory tucked under someone else's armpit.
"If John Curtin had lived in these times, I'd be pretty sure he'd be saying much the same thing."

他说“我们决不能回答害怕或者孟席斯时代过激反应的姿态，也不能把我们自己定位为别人的傀儡，如果John Curtin（后注）活着当今，我确信他也很持同样观点。”

Menzies

罗伯特·戈登·孟席斯爵士，KT，AK，CH，FRS，QC（Sir Robert Gordon Menzies，1894年12月20日—1978年5月15日），澳洲政治家，是第12位，也是在任时间最长的澳洲总理，前後任职达18年半。孟席斯爵士早年属於澳洲联合党，後来经历过了一段艰难时期，再创立澳洲自由党，此後仕途一帆风顺，并对1950年代和1960年代初的澳洲政坛起重要影响力。另外，不论在议会还是选举场合，孟席斯爵士皆以雄辩滔滔着称。

在1951年下旬，孟席斯寻求以公投的方式修宪，以取缔共产党。当时新任工党党魁H·V·伊瓦特（H.V. Evatt）以公民自由为理由，发起一连串运动反对取缔共产党，结果公投以些微票数否决了取缔行动。另外，孟席斯又派兵参与韩战，并与美国维持紧密的同盟关系。

然而，当时国内的经济却呈现衰退的景象，舆论更认为工党的伊瓦特有望在1954年的大选中胜出。就在大选举行前不久，孟席斯向外界宣布一名苏联驻坎培拉的外交官弗拉基米尔·彼得罗夫（Vladimir Petrov），已经变节澳洲，并且有证据显示苏联已在澳洲建立了一套间谍网（请见彼得罗夫事件）。事件激起了澳洲人对冷战的恐惧心理，使得孟席斯在大选胜出。事後工党指责事件是由孟席斯自编自导，但指控终究没有根据支持。

约翰·卡廷

约翰·卡廷(英文:John Curtin;1893年6月30日—1945年7月5日)，是澳大利亚著名政治家、第14任澳大利亚总理。当澳大利亚受到日本在二次大战的直接军事威胁期间，他曾经带领澳大利亚越过这段黑暗的岁月。

nbnbren

节选网友评论：

Australia needs to learn to face the world without holding onto an empire's skirts.

澳大利亚需要学习如何面对没有紧紧抓住帝国裙子的世界。

"We must be alert, dexterous and positive ..." " ... need to learn to face the world ..." Wow, thanks Paul and Az - now we know EXACTLY what is required of us.

I thought the whole speech was a bit long on vague generalities and a bit short on specific ideas.

“我们必须有所警示，灵活，积极。。。。。。”“需要学习如何面对世界。。。。”哇，谢谢Paul and Az ，现在我们”正确“知道我们需要什么

我认为整个演讲含糊不清的有点长，特别的思路有点短。

Unfortunately for Australia, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd totally overeacted to the Liberals trying to portray him as being too friendly to China.

If it was a honeymoon night at a hotel, not only did Kevin jump out of bed with them the next morning, he jumped over the balcony as well.

对澳大利亚来说，太不幸了，自由党试图把总理路克文描绘成中国的密友，他反应完全过度了。

如果在宾馆里度蜜月的晚上，路克文总理不仅仅是在次日早晨跳出了床外，他跳过了阳台。

Nice in theory but we are unable to stand by ourselves against a determined enemy. The US, weak economically as it is, will be the preeminent military power for sometime. Economically China is actually fairly small potatoes and it looks increasingly like they are overestimating their economic growth substantially. Their imports are drying up as tehy don't yhave anything to build with them.

All in all I'd rather be close to the US currently then any of the other power blocs.

理论上是美好的，但是我们也没有能力通过我们自己来反对一个决定了的敌人。美国，按现在的样子，经济虚弱，但是在某时候军事力量还是卓越的，经济强国实际上公平说还是小人物，看起来他们日益增加他们过高评价他们的经济增长，他们的进口在枯竭，因为他们除了修建，没有办法做任何事。

总而言之，当前我更喜欢靠近美国超过任何一个其他的势力集团。

无可就要

澳大利亚总是想在配合美国战略利益上分得一杯羹,无端地制造自己的敌人,纯粹是吃饱了撑的.

nbnbren

Chinas economy is fundamentally floored. Yes it will see large amounts of cash flow through it but the profits dont stay their.

Chinas fundamental problem is that it has no competitive advantage. Its whole claim to future wealth is that it has 1.3bill people the majority of which will work for nothing. They buy raw material at great cost process it then sell it to the developed world for minimal profit. The developed world adds on a large mark up and makes a large profit.

The only way china can get wealth is to increase their profit margins and that is the problem. While there cheap labour force is vast there are actually more untapped cheap labour outside of china. The problem for china is that if they increase there prices they lose there customers. they are actually stuck in a catch 22 be the major manufacturer but only make enough to survive or charge more but lose all there customers to competitors. China will be our largest trading partner but they will not reap the rewards sad but true

中国经济从根本上说有困难，是可以看到大量的现金流，但是没有足够的利润支持。中国的根本问题是没有竞争优势。

他未来财富的充分证据就是13亿人民中的大多数将劳而无获。他们在高价格的时候买原材料，然后加工，然后卖给发达国家，只有微薄利润。而发达国家可以标高价，取得高利润。

中国得到财富唯一的办法是提高利润率，但这是个难题。那里的廉价劳动力十分庞大，实际上在中国以外还有更多没有开发的廉价劳动力。中国的难题就是中国如果提高他们的价格，也许会失去客户。他们实际上也坚持想成为重要的制造商，但需要足够的生存或者更多改变但是会把所有客户都给竞争对手。中国将会成为我们最大的贸易伙伴，但是他们没有办法收获他们的报酬，悲伤但是真实。

nbnbren

我怎么觉得澳大利亚的网友都是中国通似的，看问题比我们自己都深刻

nbnbren

中国经济从根本上说有困难，是可以看到大量的现金流，但是没有足够的利润支持


现在我可以理解汽油涨价是理所当然的了




他未来财富的充分证据就是13亿人民中的大多数将劳而无获。他们在高价格的时候买原材料，然后加工，然后卖给发达国家，只有微薄利润。

怎么看怎么不舒服～～

nbnbren

Cant ignore the big wooly mammoth of a country but it is hard to be positive when that mammoth complains about such things as the Dalai Lamas visit, or when they want to buy out companys like Rio but dont allow our businesses the same access.

Rudd had if not promised did at least indicate a better relationship with China then Howard and so far that does not seem to be happening.

不能忽视像猛犸大象那样的国家，但是也很难给他积极评价，当这个猛犸大象抱怨类似ＤＬ的访问，或者当他们想购买像力拓那样的公司没有得逞等等类似问题，

路克文总理承诺，至少指出要和中国发展比霍华德总理时代更好的关系，，到目前为止，看起来也没有发生什么事情。

zero9999

fred:

03 Jul 2009 10:36:32am

Chinas economy is fundamentally floored. Yes it will see large amounts of cash flow through it but the profits dont stay their.

Chinas fundamental problem is that it ha ...
nbnbren 发表于 2009-7-3 17:03

很有道理，所以金融危机也许是中国唯一的机会，必须要阻止西方经济复苏，让西方没有投资的能力，这样即使中国劳动力成本上升，也很难被取代。

nbnbren

The Defence White Paper has intemperate language concerning China- is that because our Sinophile PM was keen to distance himself (and his compromised Defence Minister)?

国防白皮书关注中国的语言是有些过分---那是因为我们亲华的总理自我保持了距离？（他对国防部长妥协了）。

Anyway, here we have the unremarkable calls for cheap nationalistic gestures from plucky little Australia, while keeping well tucked in under American nuclear umbrella in this uncertain world.

不管怎样，在这里，为了有勇气的小小的澳大利亚，我们没有必要在意那些呼唤廉价的民主主义姿态，在这个不怎么稳定的世界里，还是安稳的躲在美国的核保护伞下吧。

nbnbren

Spinner:

03 Jul 2009 8:23:16am

It is very difficult to get too warm and cozy with the PRC given its appalling attitude to human rights - an appalling record which even the most loving observer cannot deny. (Oh, I know, we will probably now hear from all those who see terrible human rights abuses in all the other countries of the world, including Australia). But that does not change the fact the the government of the PRC is a particularly bad offender.

由于中华人民共和国给予人权的令人震惊的态度，给他温暖和舒服的态度非常困难，----骇人听闻的人权记录甚至很多对他钟爱的观察家也难以否认。（哦，我知道，现在我们也许会听到那些来自世界各地，包括澳大利亚的糟糕的人权践踏），但是这也没有办法改变事实--中人民共和国政府是显著的坏的冒犯者（罪犯）。

Australia is absolutely correct to develop and keep open its national defence options, even in respect of China.

澳大利亚完全正确发展和保持开放其国防选择权利，即使对于中国部分。

We must never fall into an extremely false sense of security supposedly provided by the "American nuclear umbrella" (this column, bitrich, 3 Jul 2009 -7:50:50). It would never happen. The political will for the USA to take nuclear action in support of an ally would absolutely never happen.

我们也绝不要在国家安全预想上对“美国核保护伞”保有极端错误的判断，这永远不会发生，在政治上，美国为了其盟国使用核武器来支持，绝对不会发生。

And it is for this reason that "plucky little Australia" (same reference as above) must maintain an effective national defence strategy.

基于此理由，小小的有勇气的澳大利亚必须保持一个有效的国防战略。

nbnbren

Tim:

03 Jul 2009 10:09:38am

What's an effective defence strategy for Australia? Relying on the US "coalition of the willing"? Not long ago, we were worrying about Indonesia, a small fry in the world of superpowers.

什么是澳大利亚有效的国防战略？依靠美国“心甘情愿的联合”？不久前，我们担心印尼----一个强权世界里的小人物。

The point is, we can't even hadle the influx of illegal migrants, let alone a foreign threat.
The money should go towards education and infrastructure for being an intelligent country.

重点是，我们甚至好没有办法控制非法移民的进入，还管外国威胁，为了成为一个有智慧的国家，我们应该把钱投进教育和基础建设。

nbnbren

Tax Me:

03 Jul 2009 7:42:29am

"Mr Keating said that unlike previous prime ministers, he always believed the rise of China was certain." Ohh Paul, your opinion of yourself never ceases to amaze. I ask, if you were so certain why did you, as Treasurer and subsequently as PM, not pursue China and its potential for Australia's economic benefit in the 80's and 90's? Why did you instead give us "the recession we had to have?" Paul, in your own little world you just keep getting "better" speech by speech

“Keating先生说同前任总理不同，他总是相信中国的风险是确定的。”，哦，保罗，（Paul Keating），你自己的观点从来没有停止令人吃惊。我问你，如果你确信你为什么那样做，你当过财长，后来当总理，为什么不在80-90年代推进和中国关系为澳大利亚经济利益作出贡献？为什么你给我们的只是“我们不得不承担经济衰退”，保罗，在你自己小心世界里，通过一场场演讲，仅仅是你变得“更好”了

matrixa

西方的资本每一分钱都滴着印第安人，黑人奴隶，华工和其他受剥削人的血。

nbnbren

西方的资本每一分钱都滴着印第安人，黑人奴隶，华工和其他受剥削人的血。
matrixa 发表于 2009-7-4 17:22

请问你在这篇文章里看到了几滴血？

nbnbren

Q:

      03 Jul 2009 11:01:17am

      We need to admit to ourselves that we practice double standards. When China tries to invest in our companies, it is a foreign power determining our future. When US takes control of our companies, which happens regularly, there is little resistance. There are those who warn of China's problem with human rights and yet USA breaches those human rights but because they have this concept of deniable culpability escape censure.

我们得承认，我们实施了双重标准。当中国试图向我们的公司投资时，这是外国势力决定我们的未来。当美国控制我们的公司，而且经常发生，几乎没有反抗的声音。有些人警告中国有人权问题，但美国也老是违背人权，只是他们有否认过错，逃避责难的概念。

nbnbren

Shadow:

      03 Jul 2009 10:59:11am

      There are National Treasures and there are National Disasters. Keating was certainly a frontrunner in the latter group but as an established has-been, why would anyone take any of his thoughts seriously?

有什么样的国家财长就有什么样的国家灾难。 Keating 毫无疑问是后来集团的先锋，但是已经确立了的东西，为什么每个人还要去认真看待他的想法？

      And with regard to China we would be much better placed to remember our own principles before blindly kow towing to one of the world's best and most corupt bullies. Greed may be good according to some, but it is certainly very destructive in the long term.

关于中国，我们应该更好地定位，在探索如何引导世界上最好，也是非常腐败，恃强凌弱的国家，我们应想想我们的法制，依照那些东西，贪婪也许很好的，但是可以确信在长期来讲将有巨大破坏力。

nbnbren

*
      lynne:

      03 Jul 2009 10:47:21am

Keating is trying to warn us that we are acting dangerously and we are.

Keating试图警告我们那样做很危险，是这样的。
      
The US is in massive debt to China due to their Middle Eastern war debt.
      
美国由于其中东战争债务，向中国借了巨大债务。

Instead of talking sense and telling the US to back off with the Arms Race we're getting involved in a state of being that is unaffordable financially and economically.

理性来说，告诉美国减少军备竞赛，负担不起的金融和经济就是因为军备竞赛弄得我们一团糟。

olgacheung

陆克文真是两难啊，现在他是想跳进黄河，但是有必要吗？