【09.08.06 经济学人】中国省区的ＧＤＰ数值发生很大变化

xitaowu

【中文标题】中国省区的ＧＤＰ数值发生很大变化
【原文标题】China's provincial GDP numbers－－Sea change
【登载媒体】经济学人
【来源地址】http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14174503&CFID=74218175&CFTOKEN=80148721
【译者】xitaowu
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载
【原文库地址】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=188460&page=1&extra=
【译文】



Aug 6th 2009

Can inland provinces keep growing faster than their coastal cousins?

内陆省份可以持续保持比沿海兄弟省份更高的增长率吗？

THE words “Inner Mongolia” may not immediately suggest sizzling economic activity. Yet in the second quarter it was the fastest growing province in China. The country’s economic growth during most of the past 30 years has been led by its long eastern seaboard. Coastal provinces such as Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shanghai sucked in foreign investment and prospered from large export industries. But eight of the ten zippiest provinces in the second quarter lie inland. Despite some question-marks over the accuracy of Chinese GDP data, the new figures shed fresh light on provinces’ relative performance.

在之前，“内蒙古”一词可能很难让读者联想到一片欣欣向荣的经济快速发展的景象，然而它却是第二季度中国增长速度最快的省份。在过去３０年里，中国的经济增长大部分都是在东部沿海地区领导下实现的，比如广东、江苏和上海，他们成功吸收外资和依靠工业出口实现经济旺盛。但在第二季度，１０个发展迅速中的８个省份都减缓了自身的增长，尽管中国ＧＤＰ的统计数据的准确性存在一些问题，但这些新指标显现出了各省之间相对的表现情况。

Higher growth in inland regions is nothing new. China’s central and northern areas quietly overtook its coastal regions in late 2007 (see chart). This partly reflects a natural catch-up effect among poorer provinces, which are able to sustain far higher investment growth. The growth gap between central provinces and those in the east widened further in the third quarter of last year as coastal cities were hit by a property slowdown. The less developed western provinces even briefly surpassed the growth rates of their coastal peers.

内陆地区实现更高的增长并不新鲜，在２００７年后其，中国中部和北部地区已悄然地超越了沿海地区。这在一定程度上也反映了落后省份的自然资源优势的效果，并能保持更高的投资增长。由于房地产市场的萧条，去年第三季度中部和东部的增长率差额在不断扩大，甚至西部落后省份的增长率也短暂地超越了东部兄弟省份。

Since then the global downturn has arguably hit export-dependent coastal provinces harder than inland ones. In eastern provinces exports are equal to 41% of GDP; in the rest of the country they make up just 6%. Government expenditure in coastal areas has historically grown at a similar pace to that elsewhere, but the infrastructure-heavy stimulus has been skewed towards needier inland provinces.

其后，相比西部内陆省区而言，全球的经济危机对主要依赖出口的沿海省区打击更大，在东部省区出口等值于ＧＤＰ的４１％，而其他地区只占到了６％。政府支出速度基本上与其他地区类似，但大型公共基础建设已经偏向更为需要的内陆省区。

Even so, it is unclear how much momentum the shift to inland growth really has. The share of national income claimed by central and northern provinces has grown only marginally in recent years. The contribution of western provinces has even fallen slightly, as demand for the resources in which they are rich has shrunk during the coast’s slump. Official efforts to lure manufacturers away from the coast have had mixed results. Foreign investment remains strongly concentrated in the east of the country, which accounts for 94% of China’s exports.

尽管如此，目前并不确定内陆持续发展的动力还有多少，在最近几年，中部和北部的国民收入增长占到的分量不高，西部省份的贡献还出现轻微的降低，他们被要求以丰富的资源支持并缓解东部出现的经济萧条。官方让厂商往内陆地区发展的努力已经起到了复杂的效果。外商投资仍集中在东部某些地区，带来的出口额占到全国的９４％。

State-directed improvements in transport infrastructure, especially in railway networks, should encourage more companies to make the journey westward. But inland growth could also be sped up by limiting the state’s role in other areas, suggests Paul Cavey of Macquarie Securities. In coastal regions the private sector has flourished, bringing productivity gains. Away from the eastern seaboard, the state sector still dominates. Provincial barriers to trade hamper the efficient allocation of resources. Favourable treatment of local (often state-owned) firms has become more prevalent in the wake of the crisis. Removing these shackles will require a shift in local officials’ attitudes, but that will not happen overnight. The rise of China’s inland provinces will be slower for it.

在官方引导下，公路交通基础设施建设尤其是铁路运营网络得到积极的改善，应当鼓励更多的公司到西部去考察。但内陆地区也可以通过限制国营部门充当的一些角色而取得更快的发展速度，麦格理证券的Paul Cavey 说到。在沿海地区私有经济领域已经得到了蓬勃发展，从而推动了生产力的发展，在远海地区之外，国营单位仍然占据统治地位，各省之间的贸易壁垒束缚着资源配置的效率，对本地公司（经常是国营单位）采取优惠待遇已经变得越来越流行，尤其在遭受经济危机之后。去除这些束缚需要当地政府转变观念，但这并非是一朝一夕可以完成的事情。中国内陆地区的发展可能因此而变得更慢。




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baozin2002

谢谢翻译..
辛苦咯...

广东省现在的经济真是差多了.....

豌豆

内蒙地广人稀，增长的很大一部分，来自资源的开采，煤矿、稀土等矿物。
什么时候能把内蒙和西北一带建设得跟江浙差不多，当地人的经济收入就很可观了。