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【中文标题】内耗战略
【原文标题】Strategies of Attrition (Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ,Ⅳ)
【登载媒体】德国外交政策网(www.german-foreign-policy.com)
【来源地址】
http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/56094
http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/56097
http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/56098
http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/56104
【编译|校对】静水伊涟、tenderstorm、Krypton、忧心、MiaT、calmvoca、茉茉菲、Valery、rhapsody
【声明】本译文(包括PDF文档在内)供Anti-CNN使用,未经AC或译者许可,谢绝转载,谢谢合作
【补充说明】文中各篇的标题为本人自行添加;校对过程中也借鉴了“强华”(非AC网友)的译文,在此表示感谢;有需要的亦可下载下边的PDF文档阅读
【中译PDF文档】
SoA.zip
(724.62 KB, 下载次数: 25)
【前言】这是德国外交政策网于2007年9月到10月间发表的一系列专题报道(前后共四篇),虽着眼点肯定是“德国外交政策”,但从中可以窥见所谓的“三股势力”的一些历史渊源,有一定参考价值。因此尽管距离原文发布已经时隔两年,编译团队还是翻译了全部四篇文章并发布于此。
【第一篇:战略】
The German chancellor is reinforcing Berlin’s special relationships to Chinese separatists, in spite of Beijing’s massive protests. The Dalai Lama had talks in the German Chancellery, for the first time, Sunday, Sept. 23. He is the leader of a self-proclaimed Tibetan exile government, with its headquarters in India, which is calling for the secession of Tibet from the Peoples Republic of China or at least special rights in accordance with the German model of "autonomy." The Dalai Lama is a western ally, helping to weaken Beijing and hamper its rise to the status of world power. For decades he has been enjoying the cross-party sympathy in Germany and is receiving support from conservatives, liberals and Greens alike. Still his meeting with Angela Merkel has been met with criticism, because business circles fear retaliatory actions on the part of the Chinese government will have a negative effect on their business. German strategies of attrition against Beijing, their historical precursors in the first half of the 20th century and the scenes of current measures, are the themes of a series of articles that german-foreign-policy.com began Monday Sept. 24.
尽管北京提出强烈抗议,德国总理仍在加强柏林当局同中国的分离势力的特殊往来。 (2007年)9月23日,周日,自称为西藏流亡政府的领导人达赖喇嘛首次在总理府受到了正式接见。总部设在印度的西藏流亡政府多年来一直寻求让西藏脱离中华人民共和国,或者至少按照德国“自治”模式为西藏争取特权(或者至少为西藏争取到同德国“自治”模式一样的特权)。作为西方的盟友,达赖喇嘛一直协助西方削弱中国的势力并阻碍中国崛起成为世界大国。几十年来,达赖喇嘛已经博得德国各党派的同情,并得到了包括保守党、独立党和绿党在内的多党派人士的支持。尽管如此,他与安格拉·默克尔的会晤依旧备受争议,因为商业界人士担心中国政府对此采取的报复行动会给他们的业务带来负面影响。从9月24日(周一)开始,德国外交政策网将会就德国针对北京当局采取的内耗战略,这一战略在20世纪上半叶的历史先驱者,以及现行措施的情况作一系列的专题报道。
With his visit to the German Chancellor, the Dalai Lama crowned his several weeks of touring Europe. Subsequent to his stops in Spain and Portugal, the self-ordained Tibetan Exile ruler met with the chancellor of Austria. Over the past few days he has toured several of the German federalstates. In Munster (North Rhein Westphalia) he was awarded the honorary doctor title of the University. In Hesse he met with the state’s prime minister, Roland Koch. As with his previous visits - the last being in July in Hamburg - the Dalai Lama was greeted with cross-party expressions of sympathy. He is expected to return to Germany for several major events in May 2008.
有了德国总理的接见,达赖喇嘛圆满完成了他为期数周的欧洲之行。结束对西班牙和葡萄牙的访问后,这位自封的西藏流亡领导人会见了奥地利总理。过去几天中,他又到访了德国联邦的几个州。明斯特(北莱茵-威斯特**州)大学授予其荣誉博士的称号;在黑森州,他会见了该州州长罗兰·科赫。与达赖喇嘛的前几站访问一样,六月在德国行程的最后一站,汉堡,各党派代表都对他表示了支持。预计他会在2008年5月重返德国,参加一些重要活动。
支持活动 (Support)
Indicating the effects of German behavior, Beijing has responded to the trip of the Dalai Lama, and particularly to his audience with Chancellor Merkel. The Tibetan dignitary leads an exile government, based in Dharamsala (India) and lays claim to control over Chinese territory ("Greater Tibet"). Even though originally the demand was for Tibetan national sovereignty, the Dalai Lama, in the meantime, claims to also be satisfied with comprehensive rights of autonomy. "These Tibetan demands for religious and cultural autonomy are supported by the German government" confirmed Thomas Steg last Friday. Beijing points to its rights of sovereignty and reserves for itself - in accordance to its own discretion and without the interference of former colonial powers - the granting of autonomy for minorities within its borders.
在指明德国所作所为的后果之后,北京当局对此次达赖之行,特别是针对其与默克尔总理的会晤作出了回应[1]。这位西藏高僧领导着地处达兰萨拉(印度)的流亡政府,并对中国领土( “大藏区[2]” )提出了要求。尽管最初是为西藏争取主权,但达赖喇嘛现时又申明只是要取得全面自治的权利。上周五,托马斯·斯特格[3]证实了“德国政府支持藏人对文化和宗教的自治的要求”的说法。北京当局立足于主权和资源的立场,依照自己的判断并在不受以前的殖民国家干涉的前提下,将授予境内少数民族自治的权力,保留给了自己。
德国榜样 (German Model)
The role model for the rights of autonomy, that the Dalai Lama is demanding from Beijing, is patterned on the German ethnic model "Volksgruppenrechte" (the rights of ethnic minority groups). In the Northern Italian autonomous region of Trentino-Alto Adige (South Tyrol) this is in force and has done nothing toward ending efforts toward secession. Already in 1993 an assistant of the European Academy Bozen, in Alto Adige, contacted the "foreign minister" of the Tibetan exile government. This academy, that has an ad hoc "Volksgruppenrecht" Institute, was founded with the participation of the foreign ministry of Germany. The Dalai Lama personally visited Bolzano in 1997. Still during the 90s, the Tibetan exile government began consultations with the European Academy on the question of "Volksgruppenrecht". "South Tyrol has definitely the character of a role model for Tibet" explained the Tibetan exile ruler during his second visit to Bolzano in 2005.
达赖喇嘛向北京当局要求自治权,效仿的是德国的民族模式——“少数族裔群体权利” 。意大利北部的特伦蒂诺-上阿迪杰(南蒂罗尔)自治区实行的就是这种模式,但这一模式对于结束分离活动没能起到任何作用[4]。早在1993年,位于上阿迪杰的欧洲波森学院的一个助理就同西藏流亡政府的“外交部长”取得了联系。这个学院有个特设的“少数族裔群体权利”研究所,是在德国外交部的参与下成立的。1997年,达赖喇嘛亲自访问了博尔扎诺,同样是在90年代,西藏流亡政府开始就少数族裔群体权利问题向欧洲学会进行咨询。2005年,达赖在第二次访问博尔扎诺期间,表示“南蒂罗尔无疑是西藏效仿的榜样” 。
西藏国旗 (National Flag)
The Dalai Lama, whose demands for autonomy and secession could permanently weaken the People’s Republic of China, is enjoying cross-party support in Germany. The Green Party was among the first to take up the Tibetan cause in the political arena. It was the first to put pressure on Beijing with a resolution on "human rights violations in Tibet" in the German national parliament (Bundestag) (October 15, 1987). Two years later, on April 20 to 21, 1989, the Greens organized an international hearing on "Tibet and Human Rights" that was held in the SPD conference room in Bonn and received wide attention. Roland Koch (CDU), who, today, is the prime minister of Hesse has also been engaged in the cause for Tibet since the mid 1980’s. In 1995, he organized the Dalai Lama’s first appearance in the Hesse parliament. Ten years later, as the Tibetan dignitary received the Hesse Peace Prize, the Tibetan national flag, which is not recognized, was flying at the federal state chancellery in Wiesbaden.
达赖喇嘛对于西藏自治和独立的要求,可以永久地削弱中华人民共和国的实力,而他也在德国获得了许多党派的支持。其中,绿党是第一个将西藏问题提升到政治高度的政党。它第一个通过在西德联邦议会上提出一项关于“西藏的人权侵犯”议案的方式向北京施压。两年后,即1989年的4月20日到21日,绿党在波恩的社民党会议厅举行了西藏和人权问题的国际听证会,并得到了广泛的关注。黑森州州长罗兰·科赫,从上世纪80年代中期也开始参与有关西藏的事务。1995年,他策划了达赖在黑森州议会的首次登台亮相。十年后,当这位西藏高僧获得黑森州和平奖的时候,威斯巴登(黑森州首府)的州长府悬挂了迄今未获承认的西藏国旗。
战略问题 (Strategies)
The Friedrich-Naumann-Foundation, closely affliated to the German liberal FDP party, began its extensive Tibet activities in the early 1990’s. Since 1991 it has been counseling the Tibetan exile government "on all questions of political education". Together with the exile government, whose headquarters is in India, the Friedrich-Naumann-Foundation organizes international conferences on Tibet. The second conference, held in Bonn in 1996, led to diplomatic fallout, culminating in the closing of the foundation’s Beijing office. It has yet to be reopened. The last conference took place in Brussels last May. At the invitation of the Friedrich-Naumann-Foundation, more than 300 participants, arriving from over 50 countries, discussed "human rights" and "strategies of Tibetan exiles’". According to the foundation, it was "the most political" conference on Tibet ever: "This was also due to the opportunities that the Olympic Games, to be held next year in China, open to the Tibetans and which were also examined in Brussels."
与德国自由民主党[5]有着密切关联的的弗里德里希-瑙曼基金会,从上世纪90年代初,便开展了大量有关西藏的活动。自1991年以来,该基金会一直为西藏流亡政府提供“所有政治培训相关问题上”的专业建议。弗里德里希-瑙曼基金会联同总部设在印度的西藏流亡政府就西藏问题多次召开国际会议。1996年在波恩举行的第二次会议引发了外交争端,最终导致该基金会驻北京办事处被关闭,而且至今未能重设。之前最后一次会议于五月在布鲁塞尔举行,应基金会邀请的、来自50多个国家的300多名与会者齐聚一堂,探讨“人权”和“流亡藏人战略”问题。该基金会表示,这次会议是迄今为止“最具政治性”的西藏问题会议: “这得益于明年中国举办的奥运也给藏人提供了一些机遇,布鲁塞尔会上对此亦进行了探讨。”
潜在风险 (Risky)
The German Chancellor’s offer to hold talks with the Dalai Lama is obviously one such "opportunity". This invitation caused hefty discussions in the Foreign Ministry and provoked resentment in business circles. German businessmen fear a loss of business, because of China’s self-assured retaliation. As an initial reaction, Beijing called off negotiations on patent protection for German goods. Other retaliatory measures are expected. According to the Director of Research for the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), Chancellor Merkel’s meeting with the Dalai Lama is a "serious foreign policy faux-pas in a subordinate conflict". In Berlin it was a rule that the chancellor visits Beijing with business delegations, and contacts to Tibet are maintained below the highest political levels. Chancellor Kohl’s visit to Tibet, in 1987, is exemplary. He defied "human rights" demands and followed the course of German export interests. Accompanied by numerous businessmen, he met the Chinese governor in Lhasa - only a few weeks after the US-Congress had passed a strongly worded Tibet resolution and amid strong protest of an anti-China public.
德国总理提出与达赖喇嘛进行会晤显然就是这样一个“机遇” 。这次邀请在外交部中引起了不小的争论,并激起了工商业界的不满。德国的商业人士担心中国政府的报复将会造成他们生意上的损失。北京当局以取消对德国商品专利保护问题的谈判作为其第一步的报复性举措;预计还会有其他的报复行动。德国外交关系理事会的研究理事认为,默克尔与达赖喇嘛的会晤是一个“在次要冲突问题上犯的严重的外交政策错误” 。柏林当局有这样一个不成文的规矩:总理出访北京要有商务代表团同行,而与西藏的接触要维持在最高政治级别以下。科尔1987年对西藏的访问就是一个范例。他公然拒绝了对于“人权”的要求,而遵循保障德国出口的路线。在大量商务人士的陪同下,他在拉萨会见了中国领导人——这次访问是在美国刚通过一项措辞强硬的西藏问题决议数周后,而科尔本人尚且置身于反华公众的强烈抗议声势之中完成的[6]。
火药桶 (Powder Keg)
In meeting the Dalai Lama, the Chancellery is taking a major risk. As one hears in Berlin, Beijing is probably avoiding any conflict with Germany and German firms, immediately preceding the Olympic Games. The opportunity for intensifying support for Tibetan separatism without risks are therefore growing. And this, it is said, is quite desirable. As Roland Koch, the prime minister of Hesse, is said to have learned during his trip to Tibet last July, the chances are growing to intensify the pressure on the People’s Republic of China and Beijing is worried that if the Tibetan dignitary (72) dies, rebellions could break out in Tibet and in other national minority areas. According to Koch, Chinese government circles are speaking of the danger of Tibet becoming a "powder keg" with serious consequences. "If it doesn’t work out good there (in Tibet, the author) it could have repercussions in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia" rejoices the Dalai Lama with the two other potential secessionist regions in mind: "after all, these three autonomous regions stretch over half of the Chinese territory". In the following issues, german-foreign-policy.com will report on how German foreign policy, in 1930’s and 1940’s, through evoking so-called rights of autonomy and other means of pressure, sought to create a Tibetan-Mongolian federation, under German Japanese hegemony.
总理府会见达赖喇嘛需要冒很大的风险。但或许正像在柏林听到的那样,北京当局在奥运前会尽量避免与德国政府以及德国企业的冲突。那样的话,加强对西藏分离势力的支持,而又不用承担风险的机遇就在此时形成了。而且这样干,据说,是相当划算的。黑塞州长罗兰·科赫去年七月访问西藏期间,据说就已经意识到向中国政府施加压力的时机越来越近,而且也知道北京当局的顾虑:如果这位藏族高僧(72岁)死去,西藏以及其他的少数民族地区可能爆发反政府行动。科赫表示,中国政界常谈到西藏问题,可能一触即发,导致严重后果。 “如果(西藏)问题解决不好,新疆和内蒙古可能也会产生严重的后果” ,令达赖喇嘛与另外两个地区的分离感到欢欣鼓舞的是, “毕竟,这三个自治区加起来占了近一半的中国国土面积。”在随后的几期,德国外交政策网站将会报道上世纪30、40年代的德国外交政策是如何通过唤起所谓的自治权与施加压力,寻求创建一个德国和日本支配下的藏蒙联邦国家的。
【译注】
[1]包括取消中德财长会晤、冻结两国间战略对话等一系列措施。
[2]包括现在的西藏,以及四川、云南、甘肃、青海等省份的藏区
[3]时任德国联邦政府发言人
[4]特伦蒂诺-上阿迪杰自治区位于意大利东北部,同奥地利接壤,自治区首府为博尔扎诺,下设两个省特伦托(Trento)及博尔扎诺-波森(Bolzano-Bozen),后者大多数人口为日耳曼族,母语是德语。历史上,对该地区的统治者几经变化。1919年割让给意大利之前,该地区属于奥匈帝国及更早时候的奥地利帝国的一部分。当地日耳曼人一直试图让这一地区从意大利分离出去。
[5]德国的一个自由主义政党,成立于1948年
[6]1987年,西藏拉萨发生骚乱,中国政府出动军警平息骚乱并在拉萨实施戒严。美国在内的一些西方国家先后通过涉藏问题决议案,指责中国政府侵犯西藏人权;西方媒体也对拉萨骚乱进行了大量宣传,在国际上掀起了一股西藏“热” 。而时任德国总理科尔在当时不顾某些人的反对访问中国,成为首位访问西藏的西方领导人。
交流见#32
所以我想出个 磨蚀战略,内外作用兼而有之,外部折磨侵蚀+内部折腾腐蚀 这就是西藏和新疆问题的实质。
翻译成内耗战略,过于强调内部,这不就忽略了热比娅和达赖的作用了么,何况这篇文章也是非常强调外部作用的,这个内耗的标题和文章的主题不吻合。
何况attrition的英文原意也是内部损耗和外部磨损的综合作用 |
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