【LEAP/E2020】当中国准备好在2009年夏末从美元圈套中“大逃亡”

rhapsody

【中文标题】当中国准备好在2009年夏末从美元圈套中“大逃亡”
【原文标题】When China prepares its « Great Escape » from the dollar-trap for the end of summer 2009
【发布机构】LEAP/E2020（欧洲政治研究实验室）
【登载媒体】第34期欧洲综合预测报告（2009年4月）
【来源地址】http://www.leap2020.eu/When-Chin ... mer-2009_a3582.html
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-187631-1-1.html
【译者】rhapsody、渔音谦谦
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，谢绝转载。谢谢合作！
【致谢】感谢渔音谦谦TX协助注释的翻译{:10_400:}
【译文】

LEAP/E2020 believes that the next stage of the crisis will result from a Chinese dream. Indeed, what on earth can China be dreaming of, caught – if we listen to Washington – in the “dollar trap” of its USD 1,400-billion worth of USD-denominated assets? If we believe US leaders and their scores of media experts, China is only dreaming of remaining a prisoner, and even intensifying the severity of its prison conditions by always buying more US Treasuries and Dollars.
LEAP/E2020认为，危机的下一阶段将由“中国梦”推动。然而，身陷“美元圈套”——听听华盛顿方面的话——背负着价值一万四千亿美元资产的中国究竟又能梦想些什么呢？如果我们听信美国领导人和他们那一群媒体专家的话，中国只是梦想着继续做一个囚徒，乃至于以经常增持美国国债和美元（资产）的形式加深自身的囚徒处境。

In fact, everyone knows what prisoners dream of. They dream of escaping of course, of getting away from prison. Therefore, LEAP/E2020 has no doubt that Beijing is constantly striving to find the means of disposing, as quickly as possible, of the mountain of « toxic » assets which US T-Bonds and Dollars have become, keeping the wealth of 1,300 billion Chinese citizens prisoner.
但实际上，任何人都知道囚徒梦想着什么——他们想要逃脱、离开监狱。因此，LEAP/E2020对此毫无疑问：北京当局在不断努力寻求各种方式尽快处置掉其持有的美国长期国库券和美元资产——这些东西都已成为“有毒资产”，将十三亿中国公民的财富置于囚徒处境。

In any good escape story, the prisoners do not spend their time making announcements that they are preparing to get away. In fact, on the contrary, they tend to avoid arousing their guards’ vigilance. According to our team, the Chinese declaration of March 24th asking for the replacement of the US dollar by an international reserve currency was both a “testing of the waters” and a warning: a direct poll to make an assessment of the forces at work (within the G20 in particular) when it comes to moving to a post-Dollar era (1), and a constructive and destructive (depending of the reaction to the previous idea) warning sent to the various global players. A responsible player (and Beijing is one) must send discreet signals to the other players likely to follow or help “planning the job”. The preparation (2) and implementation of a « Great Escape » (3) requires the collaboration of several partners and no one who would have been willing to co-operate must end up in trouble because he was not informed (4).
在任何一个越狱的故事里，囚徒们都不会声明他们正在准备逃离监狱。事实正好相反，他们会避免引起狱卫的警戒。根据我们团队的看法，中国在3月24号要求以一种国际储备货币取代美元的宣言既是“试水”，也是警告：在后美元时代即将来临之际，直接试探各股势力（尤其是二十国集团内部）的反应[1]；同时也是对众全球性大国建设性或破坏性（取决于前面各方的反应）的警告。一个负责任的大国（中国正是一个）必须向其它可能跟随或帮忙“策划”的大国发出个别的信号。准备[2]和实施“大逃亡”[3]需要几个伙伴共同协作，而愿意合作的人不会因为没得到消息而陷入麻烦[4]。



Two estimates of Chinese Foreign Asset Growth (USD billion) - Sources: Central Bank of China / Brad Setser, 01/2009
中国国外资产增长的两种估计（单位：十亿美元）。来源：中国央行/Brad Setser，2009年1月
蓝色：国外资产（调整估价）；红色：外汇储备与“其他国外资产”（调整估价）

In any event, thanks to the Central Bank of China’s “testing of the waters”, Chinese authorities have the following four beliefs confirmed:
不管情况如何，多亏了中国央行的“试水”，中国当局已经确认了以下四大要点：

1. A large part of the other members of the G20 are clearly in favour of a quick shift (5) to a post-Dollar era, in particular Russia, India, South Africa, Argentina, Brazil… therefore Beijing will not be alone when the time for a “Great leap forward ” (6) comes. On the contrary, China will be accompanied by a significant part of Latin America, Africa and Asia. The recent Yuan swap deals agreed with some of these countries is already paving the way in this direction (7).
一、二十国集团的其它大部分成员都明确倾向于朝后美元时代转变[5]，特别是俄罗斯、印度、南非、阿根廷、巴西……因此当迈出“前进的一大步”[6]的时刻到来之际，中国不会独行。相反的，会有相当大的一部分拉丁美洲、非洲和亚洲国家伴中国同行。近来与这其中一些国家签订的人民币互换协议已经为这一趋向铺平了道路[7]。

2. The United States and the United Kingdom are refusing to consider any move in the direction of a post-Dollar era. Timothy Geithner’s blunder, when he considered discussing the Chinese proposal, was quickly corrected by US political leaders, but it revealed an interesting situation for Beijing. Geithner is Wall Street’s man in Obama’s team, and his blunder suggests that the financial Anglo-Saxon community would in fact be quite open to discussing any move likely to maintain their financial privileges, even if it means the end of the “Dollar era”. The « Dollar wall » is not so solid when it leans on « Wall Street ». Financial players have little attachment to a particular territory (this characteristic dates back to long before our current globalised system). In contrast, Washington still does not want to hear anything about the replacement of the US Dollar as global reserve currency, preferring to listen to and believe in soothing experts’ talk instead (8). We know what the result was in the case of subprime loans, the financial bubble, Wall Street’s banks, AIG, TARP, the recession, and so on.
二、美国和英国则拒绝考虑任何朝向后美元时代的举动。蒂莫西·盖特纳在考虑谈论中国的提议之时所犯的错误[盖特纳在3月25日表示对中国央行行长周小川提出的扩大特别提款权用途问题持开放态度。但此番言论引发美元大跌，盖特纳随后又强调美元仍是世界主要货币，这才拉回美元走势。——译注]，很快就被美国的政治领导人给纠正过来了，但这对北京方面而言是一个有趣的场面。盖特纳是奥巴马团队中的华尔街人士，他的疏忽表明事实上盎格鲁-萨克森金融群体对于谈论维持其金融特权的举动是持相当开放的态度的，尽管这可能意味着“美元时代”的终结。相反地，华盛顿当局仍然不愿听到任何关于取代美元成为国际储备货币的事物，他们更愿意听信某些专家舒心的话[8]。而我们都知道次贷、金融泡沫、华尔街众银行、AIG（美国国际集团）、TARP（不良资产救助计划）、经济衰退等的下场是什么。

3. The Europeans (except UK) are their usual selves, unable to make any really firm decision with regard to their former US protector (9). They are successful in resisting Washington’s orders, but they are not able to impose an agenda that would displease the United States. Nevertheless, thanks to their multilateral nature and numerous relays, it is obvious that, once the end of the « Dollar-era » has become irreversible, they would bring all their know-how and lobbying capacity to bear the creation of a new international currency, independent of any particular country. That is the reason why China launched the idea that the SDR (10) could be an alternative to the Dollar, proving that it was open to other suggestions than the Yuan (key condition for European support in the future).
三、欧洲国家（除英国外）依然如故，未能就其过去的保护者（美国）作出明确的决定[9]。它们成功抵制了华盛顿当局的要求，但无法将取代美国提上议事日程。尽管如此，多亏它们的多边特性和前仆后继，一旦“美元时代”的终结变得不可逆转，它们会拿出其全部聪明才智和游说能力来承担创立一种独立于任何特定国家的新型国际货币的任务。这就是中国提出SDR（特别提款权）[10]可以作为美元的替代选项的原因所在，说明了它对于人民币以外的其他建议持开放态度（这也是能在未来赢得欧洲支持的重要条件）。

4. Beijing is resorting to increasingly clear and bold announcements, always gradual, sometimes even followed by vague denials, coming from less important sources but soon widely circulated by the international financial media. It is thus increasing its freedom of speech (and of action, as, when it comes to monetary issues, what is said can be a lethal weapon or a soothing remedy) without significantly affecting the value of US Treasuries or the Dollar.
四、中国正在寻求提升声明的明确度和强硬度，通常是渐进的，有时还伴有模糊的否认，只是通过一些不太重要的渠道透露出来，但很快就会被国际财经媒体广泛报道。因而，中国正在不会显著影响美国国库券价格和美元汇率的前提下增加其言论的自由度（还有行动的自由度；货币议题可以当作致命武器，也可当作镇痛良药）。

This last aspect is indeed the ultimate requirement of the Chinese government: to avoid by any means a collapse in the value of US Treasuries and the Dollar before it has escaped the « Dollar trap ». LEAP/E2020 believes that, in the coming months, China will reveal the exact meaning of this requirement. Is it a goal or a necessity? If it is a goal, then Washington, London and the international financial media are right: Beijing will follow in Washington’s footsteps, merely trying to enhance its influence on US decisions. On the contrary, if it is a necessity, then our team is right and Chinese leaders will strive to sell off their US-Treasuries and Dollars at the best « possible » price, choosing the best « possible » moment, avoiding creating turmoil likely to lower the value of these assets for as long as « possible » (of course, China has been thinking about all the « possibilities » before launching its « escape » plan). But, in contrast to the first option, once all “possibilities” have expired, Chinese leaders will all of a sudden contribute to accelerate the end of the Dollar-era; or, more likely, they will calmly announce that for a number of reasons beyond their control (11), they can no longer continue to play the role of US imbalances’ stabilizers.
这最后一点正是中国政府的终极要求：在其逃脱“美元圈套”之前，要避免任何引起美国国债和美元大幅贬值的可能性。LEAP/E2020认为，在接下来的几个月里，中国会亮出其终极要求的确切涵义。这是一个目标还是一种必要呢？如果是一个目标的话，那么美国、英国还有国际财经媒体的观点是对的：中国会追随美国的步伐，只是想增加自己对美国决策的影响力而已。但反过来，如果这是一种必要的话，那么我们团队的观点就是对的：中国领导人会尽力在“可能”的最佳时机、以“可能”的最优价格卖出其美国国债和美元资产，并尽“可能”地避免因此制造恐慌而使其资产贬值（当然，中国在实施其“逃亡”计划前，就一直在考虑所有的“可能性”）。然而，与前一种观点不同的是，一旦所有的“可能性”都不可行的话，中国领导人会突然加速美元时代的终结；或者，更可能的是，他们会平静地宣布由于一些超出他们控制的原因[11]，他们将不能再担当稳定美国（财政）不平衡的角色。



Chinese US asset purchases vs. Chinese estimated reserve per category of US assets (green: Treasuries and deposits / Blue: Government Sponsored Enterprises (Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac, etc) / Yellow: Corporate bonds/equities / Red: Annualized estimated reserv
中国购买的美国资产vs.每类资产储备的估测（绿色：债券和储蓄/蓝色：政府担保的企业债券，如房地美、房利美等/黄色：公司债券/股票/红色：每年储备的估测）

Our anticipation, in this regard, is based on a number of developing trends which, in the last few months, have been confirming our analyses. Since the end of 2008, the Chinese government has undertaken to dispose of 50 to 100 billion USD worth of USD-denominated assets every month. Taking advantage of record-low prices in a large number of assets useful to the Chinese economy (minerals, farmland, energy, EU or Asian corporate shares – not US ones, this is not a minor detail), Beijing « went shopping » in line with its first requirement, making the best of its USD-denominated assets, i.e. exchanging them for non US assets, thus allowing it to go forward on the way to the “Great Escape”.
我们这方面的预测是基于过去几个月里已为我们分析所确认的一些发展趋势。自2008年底起，中国已着手在每月处理了五百到一千亿的美元资产。利用对中国有用的资产（矿产、农用地、能源、欧盟或亚洲企业股票——而非美国企业，这并非无足轻重的现象）创纪录低价的时机，中国依照其第一项要求进行了“大采购”，这也是在充分利用其美元计价资产——换句话说，就是将其兑换成非美元的资产，使其在“大逃亡”的道路上更进一步。

We would like to emphasise on just how fast this process is taking place. Despite the lack of transparency in the methods used (a precondition to prevent a collapse of US Dollar and Treasuries before the moment chosen by Beijing), a remarkable study has been conducted by Brad W. Setser and Arpana Pandey, published in January 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations, which was an evaluation of Chinese foreign exchange reserves estimated to total around USD 2,300 billion at the end of 2008 (i.e. more than 50 percent of China’s GDP (12)), of which there were 1,700 billion worth of USD-denominated assets (900 billion in Treasuries, around 550 billion in GSE bonds (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac…), close to 200 billion in corporate assets and 40 billion in short-term deposits). The author of the study comes to the logical conclusion that Beijing has no further interest in adding to this huge amount of assets, increasingly at risk because of the financial and economic decisions made by the US in addressing the crisis (13), now at risk of loss, and for which, in future, funds will no longer be available due to collapsing trade surpluses and the lack of inward flows of foreign investment.
我们想要强调的是这个过程会有多快发生。尽管这个过程所使用的方法是不甚透明的（这是避免美元和美国国债在中国选择的时机之前暴跌的先决条件），但来自布拉德·W·赛斯特和阿帕娜·潘迪，登载于2009年1月的（美国）对外关系理事会刊物[原文标题为：China’s $1.7 Trillion Bet - China’s External Portfolio and Dollar Reserves——译注]的，一项引人瞩目的研究估算出了中国外汇储备在2008年末达到约23000亿美元的规模（换言之，超出中国GDP规模的50%[12]），其中有价值17000亿美元的以美元计价的资产（国库券9000亿；政府担保的企业，如房利美、房地美等的债券约5500亿；企业资产近2000亿；另有短期票据400亿）。该项研究的作者推断出，中国已经没有进一步增持的意愿，原因是美国作出的解决危机的金融和经济决策[13]使其庞大数额资产的风险日益增加，现时面临损失的可能性；而由于未来贸易顺差的暴跌以及缺少外资的流入，以后也不会有能用于增持的资金。



Top: Chinese foreign exchange reserves and share of US assets / Bottom: Idem as a % - Source : BCA Research, 12/2008
上：中国外汇储备与美国资产比率；下：同上，表示为百分比形式。来源：BCA研究机构，2008年12月

Very logically, Beijing is now disposing of these huge surplus exchange reserves which keep Chinese leaders prisoners of US decisions with no further advantage for their country, as remarkably described by Rachel Zembia in an article published by RGE Monitor on 02/21/2009: loan credits to ASEAN countries (14), swap agreements, green light for 400 Chinese enterprises to trade in Yuan with Asian countries (15), loan credits to African states and Russia, long-term special oil rates negotiated with Persian Gulf states, loan credits to oil companies in Brazil and Abu Dhabi, purchase of European and Japanese company shares (no US shares, strangely…), etc. The author emphasizes the fact that these agreements would include guarantees for Chinese companies to have access to these resources. Contrary to appearances, what is really at stake in these deals is Beijing’s discreet disposal of its US Treasuries and Dollars in exchange for assets that the country needs, moreover available at record-low prices at a time when US Treasuries and Dollars still have some value.
很合乎情理的是，北京当局正在清理其庞大的外汇储备盈余——这些东西一直使中国领导人受制于美国的决策，对该国而言再无长远利益，正如瑞秋·曾比娅所写的登载于鲁比尼全球经济观察（2009年2月21日）的一篇文章中着重描述的：向东盟国家提供信贷，（与多国）签署货币互换协议，向非洲国家和俄罗斯提供信贷，与波斯湾国家商定特种油的长期费率，为400家中国企业在亚洲国家采用人民币进行贸易大开绿灯，给巴西和阿布扎比的石油公司提供信贷，购买欧洲和日本企业的股票（而不是美国的，说来奇怪……），等等。作者强调，上述一系列协议事实上是保证中国企业享有一些相关资源的使用权。与表面现象相反，在这些交易里真正利害攸关的地方，在于中国对其美国债券和美元的审慎处置；中国将其用于换取该国所需的资产，何况这些资产正处于创记录的低价位，而此时美国债券和美元又还有些许价值。

With regard to US Treasuries, China has largely stopped buying them (purchases decreased by USD 146 billion in the first quarter of 2009 compared to the same period last year, representing an increase of only USD 7.7 billion! (16)) and only then purchasing short term (three month) Treasuries (17)!
中国很大程度上已经停止了对美国（长期）国库券的购入（2009年首季相对去年同期购入额减少了1460亿美元，总体上仅仅增持了77亿美元[16]！），而仅仅购入短期（三个月）国库券[17]！

Between the fact that it has nearly put a complete end to its purchase of US Treasuries and that it is accelerating the pace of its« global shopping » for more than USD 50 billion per month (swap agreements included), it appears that, between the end of 2008 and the end of summer 2009, China will have disposed of nearly 600 billion worth of USD-denominated assets, and it will have failed to purchase between USD 500 and USD 1,000 billion worth of US Treasuries that the Obama administration has begun to issue to finance its extravagant borrowings. LEAP/E2020 estimates that these two amounts added together give a clear idea of Beijing’s impact on the « Dollar-era » at the end of summer 2009, at the end of the US fiscal year. China’s disposals and failed purchases of US Treasuries alone will then represent a shortfall of between USD 1,100 billion and USD 1,600 billion in the United States’ financial needs. Ben Bernanke will be compelled to print Dollars in a (vain) effort to prevent his country from defaulting on its debt.
在中国近乎完全停止购买美国国债和以每月愈五百亿美元的规模（包括货币互换协议）加速“全球大采购”这两个事实看来，从2008年底到2009年夏末，中国将会处理掉价值近六千亿美元的以美元计价的资产，并且不会购入奥巴马政府为弥补其过度借出而已经开始发行的五千到一万亿美元的美国国库券。LEAP/E2020预计这两个数字加到一起就足以看出在2009年夏末（也是美国财年行将结束时），中国对于“美元时代”的影响力会有多大。单是中国处置并停购美国国库券本身，就意味着会给美国的财政所需造成一万一千亿到一万六千亿美元的缺口。本·伯南克会被迫印刷更多的美元极力避免其国家出现债务违约现象（尽管这是徒劳无功的）。



US monetary base - Source : Réserve fédérale US, 03/2009
美国货币基数。来源：美国联邦储备局，2009年3月

In the knowledge that each time Bernanke declares that the Fed will purchase its own US Treasuries, they lose 10 percent in one day, i.e. USD 140 billion compared to other international currencies, Chinese leaders will certainly find it acceptable to sacrifice USD 400 or 500 billion.
鉴于每次伯南克宣布联储局回购美国国库券，其价格一天就会下跌一成的经验，也就是账面上相对于其它国际货币下跌一千四百亿美元，中国领导人当然会觉得牺牲四五千亿美元是可以容忍的。

LEAP/E2020 believes that, at this stage, they will consider that they made the best « possible » use of their USD-denominated assets. Then, they would better be among those who push the « button » - or who do not try to prevent it. The second phase of China’s “Great Escape” out of the Dollar will then begin, depending on the behavior of the other key players. Either the Yuan takes its place as international reserve currency along with the Euro, Yen, Ruble, Real, or a process creating a new international reserve currency based on a basket of these currencies will begin. The Dollar will then be out of the race and the G20 reduced to a G18 (without the United States and the United Kingdom, but with Japan no longer able to escape the Chinese sphere of influence). Otherwise, the process of global geopolitical dislocation, described in GEAB N°32, will be underway, based on economic blocks, each of them trading in their own specific reserve currency.
LEAP/E2020认为，在这一阶段，他们会考虑如何“尽可能”地用好他们手中以美元计价的资产。然后，他们最好是按下“按钮”——或者并不阻止。中国对美元“大逃亡”的第二阶段开始了，这要看其它重要大国的举动了。或是人民币与欧元、日元、卢布、雷亚尔一道取代美元的国际储备货币地位；或是基于一揽子上述货币的新国际储备货币会被提上日程。那时美元将会出局，而G20将会缩减成G18（没有美国和英国，但日本不再能够逃出中国的势力范围）。要不然，就会出现全球地缘政治解体，这在第32期欧洲综合预测通报中已经描述过了，这一解体过程将基于经济区，每个经济区都用各自特定的储备货币进行贸易。

rhapsody

(1) The corridors at the London G20 Summit were full of discussions about a post-Dollar era. The feedback we got from our own initiative (the Open Letter to the G20 leaders) already proves it. So the declaration of the Central Bank of China on the same day was certainly at the centre of all the serious conversations (not those covered by the media) during and after the London Summit.
[1]在伦敦二十国集团首脑会议的走廊内，到处都是关于后美元时代的讨论。对于我们早前主动调查（《致二十国集团领导人的公开信》）的反馈也证明了这一点。因此中国央行在同一天发表的宣言将成为伦敦峰会期间和之后（除了媒体之外）关注的焦点所在。
[译者注：LEAP/E2020发出的公开信全名为《伦敦20国集团首脑会议：全国地缘政治动荡前最后的机会——致20国集团领导人的公开信》]

(2) Beijing has recently launched a think-tank dedicated to the global economic crisis intended to help Chinese leaders with their decisions. Regardless of the increasing traffic observed since the end of 2008 on LEAP/E2020’s websites coming from China (and Japan too, including spontaneous translations of our public announcements on a variety of websites and blogs), this initiative clearly suggests that China now wishes to distance itself from US and UK analyses which represented, until then, 90 percent of Chinese experts’ sources. Source: ChinaDaily, 03/21/2009
[2]北京最近成立了一个智库帮助领导人作出关于全球金融危机的决定。无论是2008年LEAP/E2020网站上激增的来自中国的访问量（日本也是如此，包括在多个网站和博客上发表的我们研究文章的非官方翻译版本），这一行为清楚的表明，中国现在希望和英美的分析评论保持距离，而在此之前，90%的中国专家的研究资料来源于他们。

(3) The movie of the same name, based on a true story, shows nothing else. In real life, the lack of meticulous preparation would doom the escape to partial failure.
[3]同名电影《大逃亡》根据一个真实的事件改编，在此没有其他含义。在现实生活中，若缺乏精心的准备，注定无法避免逃亡的失败。

(4) The main players are perfectly aware that capital is now flowing out of the US at the precise moment when the country’s huge public borrowing requirements substantially increase the need for foreign capital. In January 2009, the net amount of capital that left the US was USD 150-billion. Source: US Department of Treasury, 03/16/2009
[4]各个主要的国家应该充分认识到，现在的资本流动在一个美国需要大幅增加外资以偿还庞大的公共借贷的时期。2009年1月，外债给美国带来的总利润约合150亿美元。资料来源：美国财政部，03/16/2009

(5) In this case, our researchers are talking months, not years (like the experts, who « concede » that there is a problem of status with the Dollar, would like to believe), because the size of the out-of-control US deficits represent a major threat in the short-term for the entire monetary system.
[5]在这个问题上，我们的研究人员说的几个月，而不是几年（有哪位专家愿意承认或愿意相信美元的地位已经动摇），因为被外国资本控制的美国赤字大小短期内将威胁整个美元货币制度。

(6) China’s great political leap, which took place in the 1950s, entailed many disastrous collateral effects (millions of people died of the resulting hunger), but no one can tell whether or not the political leadership of the Chinese communist party is ready to take this kind of risk in the event its own survival and/or the country’s internal stability are at stake. European and American analysts pretend to know what Chinese leaders have in mind, because they have a tendency to think of them in their own image. According to our team, the post-Dollar era (if executed in an organized manner, by means of a new international reserve currency based on a basket of currencies, or chaotically by means of a sudden and non-negotiated end to the Dollar era) marks first of all a post-European era (or post-Western, if we estimate that there is an American specificity as far as core values are concerned), and that such an era has surprises in store for Europe- and West-centered people. Those who doubt it should read these remarks from a Chinese central banker on China’s « superior system advantage ». Source: MarketWatch, 04/26/2009
[6]大跃进是上世纪50年代在中国发生的一次政治动荡，造成了灾难性的多重影响（上百万人因为饥饿死亡），但没有人知道执政的中国共产党此时是否愿在自身的生存和/或国内稳定遭受威胁时冒这种危险。欧洲和美国的分析家们佯装自己可以揣摩中国领导人的想法，因为他们有在自己的思维中构想他人的习惯。根据我们团队的调查，后美元时代（利用建立新的国际储备货币、突发手段和非谈判手段，以一种有组织的方式进行）标志的首先是后欧元时代（或后西方时代，如果我们觉得所涉及核心价值观是仅限于美国的话），也为欧洲和西方中心论者准备了“惊喜”。那些怀疑这个观点的人应该去读读中国央行行长关于中国“强大的制度优势”的文章。资料来源：《市场观察》，04/26/2009

(7) After South Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia, it was the turn of Argentina to sign a swap agreement with China for a USD 14.5-billion equivalent in their currency, thus allowing each country’s businesses to bypass the US Dollar in trade and strengthening the Yuan’s position as international exchange currency outside Asia. Source: AustralianNews, 04/01/2009
[7]继韩国、马来西亚和印度尼西亚之后，阿根廷与中国签署了一份等值14.5亿美元的本国货币互换协议，从而使国内各家企业在贸易过程中绕开了美元，加强了人民币在亚洲以外地区的国际交换货币地位。

(8) This Los Angeles Times article, dated 04/03/2009, is one of the broadest-minded on this subject! But, it is a fact that China is far closer to Sunset Boulevard than to the Beltway.
[8]2009年4月3日在《洛杉矶时报》上刊载的一篇文章是目前为止这一方面最有气量的文章之一！但现实中，中国离洛杉矶要比华盛顿近得多。

(9) We say « former protector » because, as the last NATO summit again proved, Europeans and Americans no longer agree at all on the nature of current threats. The war in Afghanistan is becoming a US war only and the Europeans are mostly preoccupied by the reorganization of their strategic relationship with Moscow. In short, the Alliance (with France a member again, as our team announced when Nicolas Sarkozy was elected) is now nothing more than a senior club in need of common goals other than spending some time together and pretending that everyone gets on as well as they did 60 years ago. Unfortunately, « old age is a shipwreck » as Charles De Gaulle used to say.
[9]我们说“过去的保护者”，是因为正如上届北约首脑会议上再次证明的，欧洲人和美国人不再在面对当前的冲击时达成一致。阿富汗战争变成了美国人的单打独斗，而此时欧洲人正致力于和莫斯科重建战略关系。简单的说，这个联盟（再加上法国，我们声明是在尼古拉·萨科齐当选法国总统后）现在只不过是追求共同利益的高级俱乐部，却假装每个人之间还是和60年前一样友好。不幸的是，正如夏尔·戴高乐曾经说过的一样：“年老即是沉船。”

(10) The idea is unrealistic. Indeed, SDR were killed by the US around 40 years ago. To have any chance of success, a brand new currency must be created (especially as, called« Special Drawing Rights », it would be very unlikely to enhance its reputation outside the strict circle of monetary experts).
[10]这个想法是不切实际的。其实，特别提款权在40年前被美国扼杀过。想要获得成功的话，必须建立一个崭新的流通货币体系（尤其是像叫做“特别提款权”的，是几乎不可能在货币专家以外的人群中获得很好的声誉的）。[译者注：特别提款权（special drawing right, SDR)是国际货币基金组织创设的一种储备资产和记账单位，它是基金组织分配给会员国的一种使用资金的权利。会员国在发生国际收支逆差时，可用它向基金组织指定的其他会员国换取外汇，以偿付国际收支逆差或偿还基金组织的贷款，还可与黄金、自由兑换货币一样充当国际储备。]

(11) For which they will hold the US responsible: extravagant deficits, incapacity to stimulate economy… the reasons will be many at the end of summer 2009.
[11]为此他们将代替美国承担责任：过度的财政赤字、无力刺激经济……更多的原因将在2009年夏末显现出来。

(12) On this subject, our team emphasizes that, contrary to the suggestions contained in Chinese leaders’ recent enthusiastic speeches suggest, China’s economic situation will not significantly improve this year. Between collapsing exports, an exploding housing bubble and soaring unemployment, Chinese GDP will remain stable in 2009 (or increase 2 to 3 percent maximum). This situation will strengthen Beijing’s intention to turn its back on all the strategies which led it into this situation for which the scapegoat is obvious. Sources: Financial Times, 04/13/2009; Chinaview, 04/02/2009; New York Times, 04/02/2009; ChinaDaily, 03/19/2009
[12]在这个问题上，我们团队要强调，和最近中国领导人发表的热情洋溢的演讲中提到的建议恰恰相反：中国经济形势在今年内不会有较大程度的改善。身处在出口总量急降、房地产泡沫吹破和失业率上升的环境中，中国国内生产总值在2009年将继续保持稳定（或至多增加2%到3%）。这种情况将迫使北京政府作出放弃所有的战略的决定，以避免成为这些政策的替罪羔羊。资料来源：《财经时报》，04/13/2009;《中国观点》,04/02/2009；《纽约时报》，04/02/2009;《中国时报》，03/19/2009。

(13) For instance, the AAA rating of the United States is a complete farce, as this article published in SeekingAlpha on 30/03/2009 explains. The whole country, companies, households, public services, are acquiring junk-bond status… but the federal government is still rated AAA! Rating agencies (all of whom are American) have well deserved the USD 400 billion they were paid by the federal government to help them in assessing the value of USD 1,000 billion worth of toxic assets that it is about to purchase from the banks. Assets which, of course, were rated AAA two years ago by the same agencies. But Beijing, as well as the rest of the world, has now fully understood the fraud. Source: BusinessInsider, 04/07/2009
[13]例如，美国AAA评级是一个彻头彻尾的闹剧，正如“寻找阿尔法”网站于2009年3月30日登出的一篇文章中解释的那样。整个国家、企业、家庭、公共服务机构获得的都是垃圾债券的评级，而联邦政府却依然被评为AAA级！这些评级机构（均为美国本土注册）可以当之无愧地使用联邦政府支助的4000亿美元区帮他们对那些打算从银行收购的价值1000亿美元的有毒资产进行估价。当然，这些资产在两年前被同一批机构评为AAA级。但是北京，以及世界其他国家，现在已经完全看清楚了这种欺诈行为。 资料来源：《商业内幕》，04/07/2009

(14) Source: MarketWatch, 04/12/2009
[14]资料来源：《市场观察》，04/12/2009

(15) Source: ChinaDaily, 04/12/2009
[15]资料来源：《中国日报》，04/12/2009

(16) Source: ChinaDaily, 04/11/2009
[16]资料来源：《中国日报》，04/11/2009

(17) As Brad Setser indicates, in 2008, China absorbed nearly half the foreign purchases of US Treasuries.
[17]正如布拉德·赛斯特所指出的，2008年中国吸收了近一半的美国外债。

rhapsody

关于LEAP/E2020（欧洲政治研究实验室）这个机构，可参照此帖顶楼：http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-194227-1-2.html

这是较早的文章了，不过文中的一些数据还是有参考作用，尤其是某些注释中蕴含的信息的重要性不亚于正文）；网上其实也有别人翻译过，不过没翻注释，个人感觉这就不太完整了。
P.S. 考虑明天发中译PDF文档；必要的话再补充一点资料。先睡去了~{:9_357:}

croco

好强大的翻译，感谢，rhapsody、渔音谦谦
你们都是做大事的人。

中华的轮回

现在已经快2.2万亿了，真的被套牢了
每个月还得买进200~300亿，无底洞啊

guc

最近留在经济版上的时间越来越长, 都是因为有了这些强文, 谢谢啦

czbvas

不错不错

amywqhy

膜拜……
我的英语水平就不行……
%>_<%

curiouspuppy

辛苦辛苦，感谢感谢！：） 好文章啊！

竹隐泉

对ＬＺ表示感谢

curiouspuppy

俺并不觉得中国此次买到了“创纪录低价位”的资产，事实上此次危机中许多资源类资产价位都在被收购之前就迅速反弹，比如中铝收购力拓被放鸽子…… 实际上中国只是在购买一些自己需要的资产

渔音谦谦

偶滴神。。泪流满面。我的翻译出了这么多错误。尤其是8、12、13部分。
Boulevard 、Beltway. 也直接理解去了西天。。>_<
看来我果然不是翻经济类的料。。

R同学。辛苦你了。这篇翻译比网上那位海同学翻的流畅许多。我居然也看懂了。。奇迹。。。

dongdong

偶滴神。。泪流满面。我的翻译出了这么多错误。尤其是8、12、13部分。
Boulevard 、Beltway. 也直接理解去了西天。。>_<
看来我果然不是翻经济类的料。。

R同学。辛苦你了。这篇翻译比网上那位海同学翻的流畅许多 ...
渔音谦谦 发表于 2009-9-17 21:40

都辛苦了，非常感谢。

rhapsody

偶滴神。。泪流满面。我的翻译出了这么多错误。尤其是8、12、13部分。
Boulevard 、Beltway. 也直接理解去了西天。。>_<
看来我果然不是翻经济类的料。。

R同学。辛苦你了。这篇翻译比网上那位海同学翻的流畅许多 ...
渔音谦谦 发表于 2009-9-17 21:40

其实LEAP的政治味比经济味要浓……正如其名（政治研究实验室）……而且你出错的地方和经济无关……
其实昨晚发布后今天又对译文作了修改（昨晚太困，疏忽了……），正在等会贴的PDF里会反映出来
注释8用Sunset Boulevard和Beltway这两条主要街道来分别指代两个城市，但该句的一语双关意味偶也未能完全翻译出来，即：美国尚有媒体（洛杉矶是美国不少大型媒体的总部所在地）对美元地位问题持开放态度，但美国政府（华盛顿）完全不想听这个问题——所以说前者相对后者“far closer”……

rhapsody

有兴趣的/有需要的可以下载阅读，相对帖子的译文又作了些改动。

CGE-CN.zip (1.07 MB, 下载次数: 16)

2009-9-17 22:29 上传

点击文件名下载附件

声明：此文档供Anti-CNN使用，未经译者或AC同意，谢绝转载。谢谢合作！

P.S. 有劳楼主将该PDF文档合并到1楼或2楼，方便读者取阅。

P.P.S. 发现这正好是本人在AC的第900贴，顺便留名庆祝下^^~

curiouspuppy

很好，俺也学习学习！

话说12楼童鞋也通过实践取得了切实进步了啊，呵呵呵。一般做翻译刚出道时都会为自己出的错感到惊诧不已的，很普遍的现象，所以还是要鼓励勇于实践、勇于暴露弱点的，哈哈……

diwent

我觉得有必要统计下，你这900多贴里的高质量贴是真的不少。。。

yv_pg

其实LEAP的政治味比经济味要浓……正如其名（政治研究实验室）……而且你出错的地方和经济无关……
其实昨晚发布后今天又对译文作了修改（昨晚太困，疏忽了……），正在等会贴的PDF里会反映出来
注释8用Sunset Boul ...
rhapsody 发表于 2009-9-17 22:23

放弃美圆的国际地位，某种角度上说等于放弃美国的全球地位，比喻一下，就象30年代的英国，放弃了英镑的世界货币地位，之后基本就只能依附于美国。

至少在现阶段，美国是不愿意依附于别人的~```

逆水寒

已经秋季了，前阵子的新闻是中国继续不断地增持美国国债。。。。。。。
要减持外汇储备首先就不要再疯狂刺激出口了，出口退税又给外国人赚去。需要的是刺激内需，给国内减税。

一一一

美国世界霸权车轮的轴心，即美元霸权，最后是必然磨损（退出国际储备和国际货币）到不能承重美国世界霸权的。虽然大家都不知道，在猴年马月才看到奇迹出现。

不过，这个世界霸权车轮中的轴心（美元霸权）磨损所发出的医鸦声响，已经被美国人自己轻轻地拉奏出来了（迫使各国另起炉灶，炮制新的国际储备和国际货币）。

虽然，这声音隐约听见。但，难保在不知什么时候，这声音变成震人心魄。