【中文标题】中国想用“杀手锏”来削弱美国霸权
【原文标题】China Looks to Undermine U.S. Power, With ‘Assassin’s Mace’
【登载媒体】连线杂志（The Wired）
【来源地址】http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/07/china-looks-to-undermine-us-power-with-assassins-mace/
【译者】忧心
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-198401-1-1.html
【译文】
China Looks to Undermine U.S. Power, With ‘Assassin’s Mace’
中国想用“杀手锏”来削弱美国霸权
By David Hambling
作者：David Hambling
转载请注明：源自Anti-CNN网站，译者忧心。
Could China wipe out an American military advantage with a simple black box? Joshua Cooper Ramo’s thought-provoking book The Age of the Unthinkable challenges all kinds of conventional thinking about everything from venture capital to military strategy. One section caught my eye in particular, about how the Chinese might neutralize American air superiority, using a type of weapon known an “Assassin’s Mace.” The specific device in question is an unassuming little case; how worried should we be?
中国能用一个简单的黑盒子就打破美国的军事优势吗？约书亚·雷默发人深省的书《不可思议的年代》挑战了从风险资本到军事战略方面的各种常规思维。其中最吸引我的一章，是关于中国如何能够利用“杀手锏”武器压制美国空中优势的。书中提到的这种特殊设备是一个不起眼的小装置，我们应该为它担心到什么程度呢？
U.S. airpower depends on the ability to overcome surface-to-air missile (SAM) defenses, and one of the key weapons for this role is the AGM-88 High Speed Anti-radiation Missile (HARM), which homes in on radar emissions. (You can see them, under the F/A-18’s wings in the picture, above.) The defenders can either turn off their radar, thus blinding themselves, or have it destroyed. This is where the black box that Ramo found at a military trade show in Zhuhai in 2002 comes in:
美国的制空权基于对防空导弹（萨姆导弹）的防御能力，实现这种防御的关键武器之一是AGM – 88，一种高速反辐射导弹（哈姆导弹），它是靠发射雷达波导引的。（你可以在上面图中F/A-18的翅膀底下看到它们。）守卫者不是得关闭导弹的雷达装置从而使导弹失去目标，就是得摧毁它。这就是黑盒子的功能，雷默在2002年珠海举行的军事贸易展（译者：指的是珠海航展）中发现了它：
“…packed inside were several thousand microtransmitters and when you plugged the device in and turned it on, it broadcast signals - 10,000 of them - on the frequency of a SAM site. From the perspective of an American pilot - or , more precisely, the perspective of his HARM missile looking for a ‘lock’ on a SAM radar signal - this meant an air-to-ground picture that looked like 10,001 SAM signals, only one of which was real…”
“……里面装有几千个微型发射器。当你接通电源并打开它时，它开始发射频率和萨姆防空导弹发射装置一样的信号——10,000 多个信号。从一名美国飞行员的角度——或者更准确地说，从他的哈姆导弹的角度来看——这就意味着从空中看到的地面上有10001个萨姆系统的信号，其中只有一个是真的……”
Ramo suggests that if defenders have these black boxes then the U.S. aircraft would be helpless against enemy SAMs, and air superiority would be lost at stroke.
雷默暗示说，如果守卫者拥有了这些黑盒子，那么美国飞机将无法抵御敌军的萨姆防空导弹，美军将立即失去空中优势。
This is just one example of Beijing’s “Assassin’s Mace” family of weaponry that’s been much discussed in both Chinese and American military circles. The Pentagon defines the Maces as technologies that might afford an inferior military an advantage in a conflict with a superior power. In this view, an Assassin’s Mace is anything which provides a cheap means of countering an expensive weapon. Other examples might include Chinese anti-satellite weapons, which might instantly knock out U.S. space assets, or a conventional ballistic missile, designed to take out a supercarrier and all its aircraft in one hit. It’s an interesting contrast to the perspective of the American arms industry, which can end up spending vast amounts countering low-tech, low-cost threats like mines and IEDs.
这仅仅是北京“杀手锏”武器家族中的一例，这些武器一直是中美两国军事界谈论的话题。五角大楼定义“杀手锏”为一种可以在劣势军队对抗优势军队的军事冲突时发挥效力的技术。根据这一观点，“杀手锏”提供了一种对付昂贵武器的廉价手段。其他的例子可能包括中国的反卫星武器，它能迅速破坏掉美国的太空资产；还有常规弹道导弹，设计目标就是摧毁超级航母和它上面的所有飞机。这和美国军火工业的观点形成了一个有趣的对比，美国军火商可能会总共花费大量金钱来打击低成本低技术的威胁，比如地雷和简易爆炸装置。
Why “Assassin’s Mace?” A club-type weapon sounds like a rather unsuitable weapon for an assassin. The actual Chinese term is Sha Shou Jian (literally “killing hand club”), which refers to a pair of short wooden or metal rods used as a martial arts weapon. “Jian” normally denotes a long Chinese sword but Sha Shou Jian are blunt and heavy. They could be concealed in the long sleeves of court robes and used to make surprise attacks — hence the association with assassins.
为什么这种武器要叫“杀手锏”呢？这种大棒子（锏）听起来不像是适合杀手的武器。实际的中文名称是“Sha Shou Jian”（字面意思即“杀、手、锏”），指的是一对木制或金属制作为武术兵器使用的短棒。“锏”通常是指中国式长剑，但是杀手锏既钝且重。它们可以藏在长袍的大袖子里用来偷袭——因此和杀手联系了起来。 （译者：我感觉……作者还是没太弄清这个杀手锏是个啥，主要是因为英文翻译的不对。英文直译成“刺客用的大棒子”，实际上这个词应当一个字一个字的解释，这里的“杀手”和刺客没啥关系，指的是“必杀绝技”。建议他去读读隋唐演义。）
And although some Western commentators like the New Atlantis claim that the meaning of the assassin’s mace “remains elusive, ” it’s no mystery to Mandarin speakers. Sha Shou Jian a popular expression used by sports commentators, businessmen and even in romantic advice columns. Alastair Johnston of Harvard University criticizes the way Washington pundits want to make the Assassin’s Mace “mysterious and exotic”: it’s simply the decisive, winning quality. In sports, the Assassin’s Mace may be the key goal-scorer; in business, it’s any quality that puts you ahead of the competition; in love, it might be the subtle smile that wins over the object of your affections. Johnston suggests that a fairly idiomatic translation would be “silver bullet” and that the concept behind it is less fiendishly oriental than is often supposed.
虽然有些西方评论家，比如新亚特兰蒂斯，认为杀手锏的含义“仍然很难让人理解”，但是对于讲普通话的人来说这没什么神秘的。“Sha Shou Jian”是一种流行的表达方式，体育评论员、商人、甚至是浪漫的咨询专栏都在用它。哈佛大学的阿拉斯泰尔·约翰斯顿批评华盛顿的学者希望使杀手锏罩上“神秘感和异国情调”的方式：它只不过指的是一种决定性的取胜手法。在体育方面，杀手锏可能是一名关键射手；在商业上，它是可以使你在竞争中领先的所有手段，在爱情中，它或许是助你赢得感情对象的微妙的微笑。约翰斯顿认为更地道的翻译是“silver bullet（银子弹）”，“杀手锏”的实际含义并不像人们通常认为的那样具有东方邪恶的色彩。
Ramo (who speaks Mandarin) — is more concerned with the potential threat from these devices. But is the black box intended to stop HARM so dangerous? I was not so sure: Danger Room covered new HARM upgrades a few months back and the makers seemed relaxed about dealing with countermeasures. So I asked Ramo if he really thought the Chinese were ready to take on the Air Force.
雷默（他会说普通话）更加关注这些设备潜在的威胁。但是，这种用来阻挡哈姆导弹的黑盒子有那么危险吗？我不敢肯定：威胁研究室几个月后换装了新升级版的哈姆导弹，制造商似乎对这种对抗措施不太在乎。所以我问雷默是否真的认为中国准备好对抗美国空军了。
“I have to say I did ask some people about U.S. HARM technology and the general answer was that they are pretty confident that the sort of ECM [electronic countermeasure] system on sale at Zhuhai they have now found a solution for – which the Chinese probably know and that’s why they were selling it,” said Ramo. “And I think frankly that the box I saw was probably an early attempt that has now been passed by not only by better anti-HARM spoofs but also by a much more sophisticated integrated air-denial operational plan that includes a wide variety of tactics where ECM is complemented by space weapons, cyber, and other system-level attacks. ”
“我必须得说，我曾向一些人询问过美国的哈姆技术，得到的回答一般是：他们对美国已经找到方法来对付这种在珠海出售的ECM（电子对抗）系统相当有信心——可能中国也知道了这点，可能这就是为什么他们要把它卖了。”雷默说：“坦白地说，我认为我看到的盒子可能只是早期的试验品，现在早已被更先进的系统取代了，新系统被不仅能更好的对抗和欺骗哈姆导弹，还拥有一个包含各种战术的更先进的综合性防空计划，成为了一种辅以太空武器、网络和其他系统级攻击的电子对抗系统。”
So the box itself may not be a HARM-killer. However, Ramo sticks very much to his original thesis about the Chinese approach to warfare.
因此，盒子本身可能不会成为哈姆杀手。但是，雷默非常坚持他关于中国战备的一贯观点。
“The point I was trying to make with the box was the way in which asymmetric power does allow cheap things to undo expensive ones — to introduce both the idea of the “Assassin’s Mace”(which I think fits many asymmetric systems) and to lead into some of the technological oscillations behind Offense/Defense balance, which I get into later on…. the best Assassin’s Maces are still secretly guarded and definitely aren’t for sale — at least not yet.”
“关于这个盒子我想表达的重点是，不对称的力量确实可以用一些方法使便宜的装置得以对付昂贵的武器——比如引入“杀手锏”的概念（我认为这适用于许多不对称的系统）和一种攻防平衡的技术性振荡，我后面将要讲到这点……最好的“杀手锏”武器仍在暗中守卫着中国的安全，那肯定是不出售的——至少现在还不出售。”
So the good news is that U.S. air power still rules — and that Iran can’t buy “Assassin’s Mace” technology from China to cancel it out. The bad news is that this situation might change at any time.
因此，好消息是，美国的空中力量仍然具有统治地位——以及伊朗无法从中国买到“杀手锏”技术来颠覆美国空军的地位。坏消息是，这种情况可能随时都会改变。
[Photo: U.S. Navy]
图片：美国海军 |
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