【2009.10.01 华盛顿邮报】China's Gala Show of Strength

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China's Gala Show of Strength
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp ... R2009093004853.html

Military Rolls Out Latest Hardware for 60th Anniversary of Revolution

By Steven Mufson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, October 1, 2009

BEIJING, Oct. 1 -- China's military brought its latest weaponry to the National Day parade through Tiananmen Square on Thursday, including medium- and long-range missiles, fighter planes and armored vehicles, alongside goose-stepping troops.

The missiles and equipment are the latest manifestations of China's more than 10-year-old effort to modernize its military, prompted in part by a confrontation with the United States in 1996 after Washington sent aircraft carriers to protect Taiwan from Chinese missile threats. Ahead of Thursday's parade, U.S. analysts have been most concerned about infantry combat vehicles, long-range missiles, and missiles that might be aimed at aircraft carriers.

Still, many foreign military analysts anticipated few, if any, surprises Thursday because most of the equipment has been seen at weapons fairs or in satellite photos, including some available through Google, taken during months of rehearsals for the celebration marking the 60th anniversary of China's Communist Revolution.

"They've had a couple of practice runs, and it seems that most of what will be in the parade we've seen already," said Richard D. Fisher Jr., a senior fellow on Asian military affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center.

"Much or most of what will be on display will be same or upgraded models or variations of stuff that was on display 10 years ago," said Dennis J. Blasko, an independent analyst who served 23 years in the U.S. Army as a military intelligence officer and foreign area officer specializing in China.

Such assessments did not deter a barrage of Chinese media coverage as the parade approached. On Wednesday night, Chinese state television featured stories about military formations, female fighter pilots, and rapid-reaction forces that were shown raiding buildings and buses. Chinese leaders were shown sitting stone-faced in the Great Hall of the People, listening to a speech by Premier Wen Jiabao.

One element of suspense: Would the thick blanket of smog that made it hard to see more than a few blocks Wednesday clear by morning? It had thinned but was still hazy.

Tested slogans were dusted off for the occasion. An editorial in the People's Daily, a traditional mouthpiece of the Communist Party, said the party aimed to "to build a prosperous, democratic, civilized and harmonious socialist modern country by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China."

The official New China News Agency listed parade highlights, including a 200,000-square-foot, three-ton cloth painting titled "This Land Is So Rich and Beautiful," to be held aloft by 2,009 policemen. Music was to be performed by a band combining 1,500 military band members, a 2,100-member adult chorus, a youth chorus of 300 and a 130-member orchestra. There were to be 34 floats from various provinces and regions and a float featuring 181 foreigners under the banner "One World."

The patriotic spirit was apparent beyond the official media. At the Red Classics Themed Restaurant, which recalls the 1966-1976 Cultural Revolution, many customers held small flags Wednesday night while a singer crooned revolutionary songs from that era. Then the host asked all the diners to stand while a flag was raised. Diners of all ages rose and heartily sang "The Song of the Embroidered Red Flag." At the end of the show, the host asked people to stand again to sing "Chanting About Our Motherland."

But while such demonstrations and the display of tanks and other weapons in Tiananmen Square struck a chord among Chinese, they worried some in the United States.

"The People's Liberation Army is moving from regional power projection to global power projection," said Fisher, who has long warned against China's military advances. He cited an infantry combat vehicle designed to pop out of a transport plane and logistical-support vehicles. "The message: They're not all tooth. They have plenty of tail to worry us as well," he said.

New Chinese capabilities could undercut the protection the United States offers its allies in the region, he said. He also warned of an amphibious fighting vehicle capable of firing missiles farther than Taiwan's land-bound tanks.

Xiao Gongqin, a historian at Shanghai Normal University, cautioned against misinterpreting the military parade. "It's not like some Westerners think, that China will be expansionist internationally," he said. "Mainly the aim is to increase the Chinese people's confidence. [President] Hu Jintao has emphasized on many occasions that China will adhere to the principles of peaceful diplomacy."

Chas W. Freeman Jr., a veteran diplomat, China expert and former Pentagon official, said he did not see a threat to the United States and noted that Chinese military spending is still a fraction of U.S. military spending. Indeed, the Reuters news agency reported Wednesday that two unnamed senior officers with the People's Liberation Army had said China would reduce its 2.3 million-member army by 700,000, though increases in the air force and navy could offset part of that.

Freeman said the only weapons China has deployed against the United States -- cyberwarfare tools -- were not on display Thursday. "They have no intention of fighting a war in the United States, but we have done a lot of planning about fighting them on their territory," he said. "Their answer has been cyberwarfare."

Freeman did say that Chinese military advances have affected Taiwan. "The Chinese now do have the ability to punish Taiwan so severely that even if the United States intervenes, Taiwan can't win in any sense," he said, adding that the development "has basically brought Taiwan to heel."

Blasko said Chinese officials argue that parading military equipment contributes to transparency and deterrence, although he added that "deterrence and intimidation are two sides of one coin."

But Blasko also cautioned against alarm about China's display. Even if new weapons appeared in the parade, such as the land-attack cruise missile that analysts would like to know more about, he said, it would say nothing about how many the military has or how well they work.

"What we're seeing here is only equipment," he said. "All we're seeing them do is drive at two or three miles per hour in very neat formations. . . . And the troops marching or flying will have spent five months in preparation for this parade, which means their units will have missed an entire season of field training. But evidently the high command feels this is worth the training loss."