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【中文标题】外交政策专家评估奥巴马亚洲之行
【原文标题】Foreign policy specialists assess Obama's trip to Asia
【登载媒体】华盛顿邮报
【原文地址】http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/20/AR2009112003594.html
【译者】chandlerbing
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【原文库连接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-207751-1-1.html
【译文】
Foreign policy specialists assess Obama's trip to Asia
外交政策专家评估奥巴马亚洲之行
Topic A1
Sunday, November 22, 2009 /
标题A
2009年11月22 日， 星期日
The Post asked foreign policy experts if Obama's trip was a success or an embarrassment. Below are contributions from Michael Auslin, Michael Green, Victor Cha, Danielle Pletka, Douglas E. Schoen, Richard C. Bush, Elizabeth C. Economy, David Shambaugh and Yang Jianli.
奥巴马的亚洲之行是成功还是羞辱—就此问题，本报询问了外交政策专家。他们是Michael Auslin, Michael Green, Victor Cha, Danielle Pletka, Douglas E. Schoen, Richard C. Bush, Elizabeth C. Economy, David Shambaugh 以及杨建利。
MICHAEL AUSLIN
Director of Japan studies, American Enterprise Institute
MICHAEL AUSLIN，美国企业研究院日本研究所所长
The optics of the president's trip fulfilled his stated intention of announcing that the United States was "back" in Asia, but the lack of tangible policy results suggest it was a success of style over substance.
奥巴马之前说的很明白，这次亚洲之行的意图就是宣布美国已经“重返亚洲”。从表面上看，他完成了这个意图。然而由于缺少实际的政策结果，本次亚洲之行，仍然是华而不实。
Meeting with the leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and a statement that the United States will "engage" with the free-trade Trans Pacific Partnership does not substitute for a full trade policy. Relations with Japan remain strained, and distrust will linger even if Tokyo and Washington do solve the knotty issue of relocating U.S. troops stationed in Okinawa. Relations between Washington and Tokyo also continue to cool as both increasingly see China as their key partner in the future, despite concerns over how aligned their interests are with Beijing's.
尽管奥巴马会见了东盟各国的领导人，并且发表了美国将会积极参与泛太平洋自由贸易伙伴关系的声明，但这并不能代替一个完整的贸易政策。美日关系依然紧张。即使解决了冲绳美军基地转移这个棘手问题，两国之间的不信任依然会继续。无论两国与北京的利益的一致性如何，双方都越来越将中国视为日后的关键合作伙伴。因此，双边关系的关系将继续保持冷淡。
Little of lasting import was reached with China on economic or security issues, and the long-term effect of Obama's lack of access to Chinese society, including human rights dissidents, may have convinced Beijing that it will be able to manage relations with the Obama administration in its favor.
就经济与安全议题，美国向中国达成的持久重要的协议甚少；加之奥巴马缺少接触中国社会（如人权异见人士）所造成的长期后果，北京会就此认为，在与奥巴马政府打交道事，他们将占得上风。
Asians remain interested in the United States playing a leadership role in the region. Showing up is important, but it is only part of encouraging allies and convincing other nations of Washington's indispensability for maintaining stability and security. The dynamism of Asia requires an equally dynamic U.S. policy based on strength and liberal values.
亚洲人对美国在该地区的领袖角色仍有兴趣。展示自己是领导这一点确实重要，但对于振奋盟友，以及使他国相信美国对稳定安全的必要性来说，这只不过是一部分而已。亚洲的活力要求同样有活力的美国政策，而这种政策要建于力量与自由价值观之上。
MICHAEL GREEN
Senior adviser and Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; associate professor at Georgetown University; special assistant to the president for national security affairs, 2004-05
MICHAEL GREEN，国际战略研究中心日本部主席，高级顾问；乔治敦大学联席教授；曾任2004-2005年总统国家安全事务特别助理
President Obama deserves credit for spending more than a week in the world's most dynamic economic region; in contrast, Bill Clinton skipped two Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summits when faced with domestic political challenges. But Obama's trip to Asia should be a wake-up call to the White House about the limits of using the president's biography as foreign policy and the realities of power politics in the Pacific. It may have seemed like a productive strategy to defer decisions on arms sales to Taiwan and a presidential meeting with the Dalai Lama before traveling to Beijing, but China's polite intransigence on just about every strategic issue on the agenda raised questions from Australia to India about whether Beijing now had the upper hand in its relationship with Washington. Indians were particularly unhappy that in Beijing Obama promised to work with China "to promote peace, stability and development in South Asia" -- India's own back yard. When Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visits Washington this week, Obama should stress how much the United States looks forward to working with India to promote continued peace and stability in East Asia. A few gentle reminders of the depth and breadth of American power and influence would be timely.
奥巴马总统对世界上经济最为活跃的地区进行了为期一周的访问，这一点值得表扬。与此相反的是，为了处理国内的政治挑战，克林顿跳过了两次亚太经合高峰会。但奥巴马的亚洲之行，对白宫来说，却是一个警讯—奥巴马的个人经历具有局限性，而且太平洋地区的政治是强权政治。北京之行前推迟对台军售和见达赖喇嘛的做法，似乎是个富有成效的策略。但对议程中的每一项战略议题，北京都彬彬有礼地坚持己见—从澳大利亚到印度，各国都在怀疑：在中美关系中，北京是否已占了上风？而且在北京会晤中，奥巴马承诺，要与中国努力“加强南亚安全，增强南亚稳定，促进南亚发展“—这一提法惹得印度人尤其不高兴，因为对印度来说，南亚就是印度的后院。当印度总理辛格本周访美时，奥巴马应该强调，美国愿与印度携手，为东亚带来持久和平与稳定。美国力量与影响的广度与深度，还是需要一些温和及时的提醒。
VICTOR CHA
Director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council, 2004-07; professor of government at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service; senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
VICTOR CHA, 曾任2004-2007年国家安全委员会亚洲事务部部长；乔治敦大学外交事务学院政府系教授；国际战略研究中心高级顾问。
President Obama's visit was high on optics and messaging, but low on policy substance. Obama's public diplomacy message of being the first American president with an Asia-Pacific heritage worked well in Asia, where both street and elite views of him (and by association, American standing) have been highly favorable since his election. However, beyond some agenda-setting, the visit lacked any policy deliverables. In fairness to the administration, it played down expectations of such; nevertheless, presidential summits are "action-forcing" events within and between governments -- that is, the summit enables the policy machine to make progress on critical issues that might otherwise be difficult to achieve.
奥巴马总统本次出访，长于公众视野和信息传递，而短于政策实质。作为首个拥有亚太血统的美国总统，这一外交公众信息在亚洲收效甚好。自从选举以来，无论是街头巷尾还是精英人物眼中（从美国人看来），他的公众形象都非常好。然而除了一些日程安排外，本次出访缺少政策产品。对奥巴马政府，平心而论，它本身就对本次出访没有报太高的期望值；而且，首脑峰会在政府之间本身就有“强制性”—也就是说，在峰会上，对一些本难以取得进展的议题，政府会取得一些政策上的进步。
In China, there may have been missed opportunities to push ahead on the human rights agenda or on Iran. Beijing appears to have pocketed Obama's unprecedented open-armed engagement and leveraged America's current economic vulnerability to say no on these issues. In Japan, too much was made of the "bow" to the emperor, and not enough attention was paid to the fundamental change underway in the U.S.-Japan alliance with a new liberal and independent government in Tokyo for the first time in 50 years. Yet perhaps the biggest missed opportunity was on trade, where Asians questioned whether the United States -- despite its economic difficulties -- will continue to lead Asia in support of the free-trade regime. At the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference and on each stop, the president was given the opportunity to enunciate a trade policy, yet he did not take up the challenge, to the disappointment of all regional players.
对于本次中国之行，美国政府也许错失了一些可以在人权计划表以及伊朗问题上取得进展的机会。似乎北京拒绝了奥巴马带来的史无前例，张开双手的示好；而且北京利用美国今日脆弱的经济，对约定中的议题连连说“不”。而在日本之行中，人们对奥巴马对天皇的鞠躬关注的太多，而由于50年内首次上台的新自由独立新政府上台，美日联盟中发生了根本性变化--而这一点却没有引起热门的过多注意。而错失的最大机会或许在贸易方面—亚洲人质问美国（尽管美国正遭受紧急困境）是否能够支持自由贸易政权并领导亚洲。无论是亚太经合峰会还是亚洲之行的其他站点，奥巴马都有阐明贸易政策的机会，然而领所有国家地区领导人失望的是，他没有接受这一挑战。
DANIELLE PLETKA
Vice president of foreign and defense policy studies, American Enterprise Institute
DANIELLE PLETKA，美国企业研究院外交国防综测研究部副部长
The problem with President Obama's recent swing through Asia cannot be boiled down to the kowtow, the collapse of Copenhagen, or the rebukes in Beijing and Tokyo. Lack of success does not automatically add up to failure.
奥巴马总统近日来“摆”过亚洲，但是这其中出的问题不应被归结为卑躬屈膝，哥本哈根大败，亦或是在北京和东京的非难。成功的缺失不会自动增加为失败。
The more damaging outcome of the trip for Obama is the entrenchment of the perception at home and abroad of the president as a pied piper of American retreat in the world. As Jimmy Carter, Sarah Palin and Dan Quayle might admit, shaking off such a sobriquet -- deserved or not -- is nigh on impossible. And while it's true that our Asian allies are still reeling from Obama's submission to China and his embrace of protectionism, the larger problem is the growing conviction that the president is eager to herald an era of American detachment and decline.
无论是国内还是国外，由于人们对奥巴马的印象根深蒂固--他承诺美国将在世界范围内退却，但却从未兑现；所以奥巴马的此次出访造成了更具灾难性的后果。正如Jimmy Carter, Sarah Palin 以及 Dan Quayle 所说，无论这个印象应得与否，摆脱它都不太可能。当奥巴马对中国低眉顺眼，拥抱保护主义的时候，我们的亚洲盟友感到头晕目眩也就毫不奇怪了。这个时候，最大的问题是，人们都相信美国总统正急着预示一个时代，一个美国孤立衰退的时代。
Obama has made three major foreign policy forays -- in Cairo, at Turtle Bay and to the Pacific. In each, he has underscored that America should not, cannot and will not lead the world; that the export of American values is the least of his priorities; and that engagement with America's adversaries takes precedence over the maintenance of alliances. But retreat generates its own consequences, internationally and domestically. Few will be tempted to cast their lot with a weak leader; many will be tempted to challenge him, and some will succeed. That's bad news for the president and for the nation. And not just in Asia.
奥巴马进行了三次外交政策的大变化—开罗之变，海龟湾之变，以及太平洋之变。每次变化中他都强调，美国不应该，不能够，也不愿意领导世界；输出美国价值观根本不重要；向美国敌人示好比保持盟友双边关系更重要。但是这种退却在国际和国内产生了其固有的后果：几乎没人会与一个弱势领导共患难；很多势力会挑战奥巴马，而且某些势力将获得胜利。这对总统和美国来说，是个坏消息。而且这个坏消息的范围不仅仅限于亚洲。
DOUGLAS E. SCHOEN
Democratic pollster and author
DOUGLAS E. SCHOEN，民主党民调测验人，作家
President Obama was unable to secure any lasting agreements on climate change, free trade, revaluing the Chinese currency, or, most important, sanctions on Iran and North Korea. On these latter issues he did ramp up his rhetoric in his final speech to U.S. servicemen in Korea. But we are no closer to agreements on any of these major issues than before his tour.
在环境变化，自由贸易，人民币升值，和最主要的伊朗及朝鲜制裁这些议题中，奥巴马总统无法保证可以就其中任何一项达成协议。就后几项议题，在他对美国驻韩军人发表演讲时，确实加重了其外交辞令的语气。但就这些主要议题，他出访之后，达成协议的可能行还是没有提高。
The president's failure to achieve any concrete results will impact his standing back at home and in his dealings with Congress over health care. While the president's own favorability rating may be temporarily enhanced by the visit, the trip is unlikely to impact his job approval ratings -- particularly on issues relating to leadership and accomplishment. Moreover, with Congress now showing increasing signs of restiveness, the visit is also unlikely to help him win agreement on a final health-care bill that would unite the Democratic Party and bring along at least one Republican. "
由于总统没有达成任何实质性的结果，他在国内的名声将受损，与国会就医疗改革的讨价还价也将受影响。虽然由于这次出访，他个人的威望将暂时提高，但是这回出访却不会提高他的支持率—尤其是有关领导力及成就方面的支持率。而且，随着国会的抵触迹象越来越多，该次出访也无法帮助奥巴马赢得最终医疗法案协议。而该协议原本可以团结民主党，吸引共和党。
The absence of agreements reached overseas makes it arguably more difficult to get members of Congress, who saw the November election results and Obama's declining approval ratings, to do anything other than what a variety of foreign leaders did last week: smile politely, offer encouraging words -- and then do what they believe is in their own interest. '
由于海外协定达成甚少，加之奥巴马十一月选举以来支持率不断下跌，人们有理由相信：国会议员很难像上周外国领导人那样—礼貌地微笑，说一点鼓励的话，然后还是按照自己的利益办事。
RICHARD C. BUSH
Senior fellow at the Brookings Institution; national intelligence officer for East Asia on the National Intelligence Council, 1995-97
RICHARD C. BUSH，布鲁斯金研究所资深研究员，曾任1995-1997年国家情报委员会东亚地区国家情报官员。
It is not useful to assess President Obama's trip according to goals he didn't set for himself. Among other things, he set out to affirm that the United States remains a Pacific power, that it will repair self-inflicted damage to its reputation, and that the alliances with Japan and South Korea are strong. He did all that through the force of his engaging personality and the substance of his ideas. His grade here: A.
如果依据奥巴马出访之前没有设定的目标来评估此次亚洲之行的话，那么这种评估是没有用的。而且，这次亚洲之行就是要重申美国在太平洋地区仍存有强力，这将修补美国自己造成的声誉损失，且加强与日韩之间的盟友关系。通过自己的迷人性格以及理念实质，奥巴马完成了上述的所有任务。我为他此次出访的打分为：A。
The major goal of this trip was to make the case for multilateral cooperation regarding the pressing challenges of the global economy, climate change, proliferation and Afghanistan-Pakistan. America cannot solve these problems alone. We cannot order others to help us. We cannot seek their help while ignoring their interests or giving disproportionate emphasis to human rights. The president understands this; his critics do not.
这次亚洲之行的主要目的就是：促进多边合作以应对继续应对的挑战，如全球经济，气候变化，核扩散以及阿富汗-巴基斯坦问题。美国无法单独解决这些问题。我们不能命令别人帮助我们，我们也不能一遍忽视别国利益，不恰当地强调人权，一遍寻求帮助。总统了解这一点，他的批评将无济于事。
Making the case for multilateral cooperation is not easy. Others will be tempted to free-ride on U.S. efforts. They will not sign on after one round of discussions. Still, Obama advanced this objective. He may have gotten an "incomplete" on this, but through no fault of his own.
促进多边合作并不容易。其他国家将会试图搭美国努力的便车。他们不会在一轮谈判后就签署协议。然而奥巴马还是推动了这个目标。也许在这一方面他应得的评语是“未完成”，然而这并不是由于他自己的错误。
BELIZABETH C. ECONOMY . C.V. Starr senior fellow and Director of Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations ,
ELIZABETH C. ECONOMY，外交事务委员会亚洲研究部主任，C.V. Starr资深研究员
President Obama put his money on Chinese leaders, betting that by playing nice early on there will be a big payoff down the road. He allowed Beijing to stage-manage the visit in such a way that it displayed virtually nothing of what makes him a rock star internationally. No hoops with Chinese basketball stars; no mingling with the Chinese people; and no roundtables with NGO leaders or activists. It was, optically, one of the worst U.S. presidential visits to Beijing in memory.
奥巴马把钱全部押在中国领导人身上，打赌要是在中国表现善意的话，这趟中国之行将会所获颇丰。他允许北京操控了这次访问—他自己的“国际摇滚明星”形象事实上并没有秀出来。 不能和中国篮球明星打篮球；不能深入到中国民众中去；也不能与中国非政府组织召开圆桌会议。在我记忆里，这一次总统北京之行是最差的一次。
Substantively, the visit was no better and no worse than any other recent presidential summitry. There was a laundry list of issues for future discussion and cooperation and a few subtle hints of change to come on issues such as climate change. Lots of talk, little action -- just the way the Chinese like it.
实质上，与最近其他的总统级别的高层会议相比，这次出访好不到哪去，也坏不到哪去。未来商谈合作的议题还有很多，还有一些细微踪迹，显露出某些议题要发生变化—如气候变化。说多做少—中国人就喜欢这样。
Although I'd like to back the president, I'd place my own bet that being nice to the Chinese leadership isn't going to get us very far. It never has. What works is bringing others to the table to play. Our ace in the hole is that most other countries want the same things from China that we do: progress on reining in Iran, movement on the Chinese currency, greater transparency on Chinese military issues, improved food and product safety, etc. Our strategy should be to stack the deck with our friends and allies. That's our best chance for a winning hand.
虽然我想支持总统，但是我相信，对中国的领导权的善意不会让我们有多大进展，我们也从未在此取得过多大进展。有效的方法是把别国带到前台，让他们参与中美游戏中。我们的王牌是：大多数国家和我们一样，也想让中国做如下的事情：加紧制裁伊朗，人民币汇率升值，中国军队透明度的大幅度提高，完善的食品及产品安全性，等等。我们的策略就是要与朋友与盟友“串通一气”，对付中国。要想取胜，这是最好的机会。
In the meantime, let's start planning for President Hu's return visit . . . with lots of press conferences, town halls and media opportunities. It's their turn to play nice.
同时，让我们开始规划一下胡主席的回访吧…多安排新闻发布会，市政厅演讲和媒体见面会。该他们表现善意了。
DAVID SHAMBAUGH
Visiting Fulbright scholar at the China Academy of Social Sciences; director of the China Policy Program at George Washington University
DAVID SHAMBAUGH，中国社科院福布莱特基金会学者访问学者；乔治华盛顿大学中国政策项目主任
The Obama state visit to China was a substantial success, despite a few failures.
尽管有一些失败，奥巴马对中国的国事访问实质上还是成功的。
The failures lay in how the president spent his time in China. Not interacting with Chinese people (except the Chinese government's chosen students), not giving an uncensored nationally televised speech, not visiting any civic organizations or businesses, not visiting a wind farm or clean-energy firm, not meeting human rights lawyers or activists, and not meeting with the American business or scholarly community must all be counted as failures. He did not send positive signals in these areas -- but the Chinese government did not permit it and the American side did not insist on it.
失败就失败在奥巴马在华的时间利用上。没有和中国人民互动（中国政府选中的学生除外），未能发表不经审查的全国演讲；没有访问民营机构和企业；没有参观风力田和使用清洁能源的企业；没有会见人权律师和活动家；没有会见美国企业和学生群体—这些都应算作失败。因为中国政府的不允许和美国政府的不坚持，他没能在这些领域上发出积极信号。
But this is more than compensated for by the significant policy achievements embodied in the U.S.-China joint statement. This is a remarkable document, filled with multiple tangible areas of cooperation. One sees a demonstrable shift away from the "strategic hedging" of the former administration toward accepting China as a full partner in world affairs. The conciliatory, nonhectoring tone the president struck also went down well in China. After years of ambivalent hedging, a real paradigm shift in Sino-American relations is in the offing -- and the world will be better off for the newfound cooperative spirit.
但是这与中国美联合公报中的显著政策成就相比，奥巴马是有所收获的。这份公报值得注意，其中包含了多项实质的合作领域。其中一个就是奥巴马政府很明确地不再坚持前任政府所说的“战略性规避”，而越来越接受这样一个事实：在处理世界事务时，中国是美国的完全伙伴。奥巴马采用的这种安抚性，非威胁性的口吻在中国收效良好。经历了多年的矛盾性规避后，中美关系将在不远的将来出现真正的，模范式的变化。这种新建立的，充满合作性的精神受益全世界。 |
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发表于 2009-11-22 12:02
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