【中文标题】泡沫危机：房地产为什么是中国最头痛的问题？
【原文标题】Bubble Trouble: Why Real Estate Is China's Biggest Headache
【登载媒体】时代周刊
【原文链接】http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1939768,00.html
【原作者】Michael Schuman
Construction of high-rise buildings in Shenyang, China
While newspapers in the U.S. are still filled with reports of foreclosures and ongoing declines in home prices, the headlines in China tell a different story. One local daily reports that in Shanghai on Oct. 30, more than 200 potential buyers crammed into the sales office of a new housing development, snapping up 120 of the 150 available apartments in just one night. Several weeks earlier in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, 300 people lined up to buy new apartments, some of them arriving two days before the sale. A picture in the local press showed eager customers who brought chairs and folding beds to camp outside the sales office with their families.
Such exuberance is both good news and bad for China's leadership. The revival of the real estate industry is a key reason that China's economy is emerging from the global recession with such strength. But frothy increases in home prices are also fueling concerns that the property boom could turn into an unstable and dangerous bubble. According to government data, property prices in 70 cities rose 3.9% in October from a year earlier — the largest increase in 14 months. In 20 of the cities, prices jumped more than 1% from the month before. The phenomenon isn't limited to just a handful of wealthy cities on China's coast. Towns such as Nanjing, Kunming and Chongqing are experiencing price hikes as well. Though most observers believe China's real estate market is not in a bubble just yet, making sure it doesn't reach that point is one of the biggest challenges facing Beijing today. "Rapidly rising property prices now becomes a top issue for policy makers in China," economists at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research proclaimed in a recent report.
The reason is that the roaring real estate market is complicating Beijing's decisions on when and how to unwind the drastic stimulus measures that policymakers put in place to combat the global recession. There is clearly a link between Beijing's ultra-loose monetary policy and the run-up in property prices. The amount of new loans granted by Chinese banks in the first 10 months of 2009 surged an eye-popping 144%, to $1.3 trillion, from the same period in 2008. The easy money policy has led to a fantastic increase in property deals — up 82% in October (by volume of floor space) from the same month a year earlier. There is also concern percolating that home prices in major cities are rising out of the reach of the average Chinese. Not only could that cause social discontent, it may also dampen consumption — which China's policymakers desperately need to increase. If families need to allocate more and more of their income to housing, that drains away the cash that's available to buy other consumer goods.
The more prices rise, the more pressure China's central bankers come under to tighten up monetary policy and curtail credit . Some observers in China are already getting nervous. "If the Chinese central bank does not respond quickly to rein in credit growth, unchecked asset bubbles can seriously distort allocation of resources and thereby undermine the country's long-term growth prospects," a Nov. 5 commentary in China Daily warned.
Still, policymakers must tread carefully. With exports improving but still weak, exiting stimulus measures too soon could derail the economy's recovery. Even restraining the property market could affect growth, since investment in the sector — which accounts for a full 10% of GDP — has been a key driver of China's overall economic rebound. Investment in property jumped nearly 18% in the first three quarters of 2009 from the same period in 2008.
For now, China's policymakers are indicating that pro-growth policies will stay in place. Economists don't expect the central bank to hike interest rates until next year. Instead, analysts think the government will try to avoid a real estate bubble by implementing sector-specific measures in the coming months to cool down property prices, like tightening access to mortgages for buyers of second homes — who are more likely to be purchasing apartments as speculative investments.
But economists believe that the longer Beijing keeps the stimulus tap open, the greater the danger that the good times in Chinese real estate could turn ugly. Louis Kuijs, a China economist at the World Bank in Beijing, commented in early November that even though Chinese policymakers may not need a "major tightening" right away, "risks of asset price bubbles and misallocation of resources in the face of high liquidity need to be mitigated." Kuijs concluded that "the overall monetary stance will have to be tightened eventually." Beijing's big test is to make sure that doesn't happen too early — or too late.
中国沈阳在建的高层楼房。
在美国的报纸上还充斥着取消抵押品赎回权和本土商品价格持续走低的报告的时候，中国报纸的头条消息却讲述着不同的故事。一家本地日报在10月30日报道，超过200名购房者挤进一家上海房地产开发项目的售楼处，一个晚上就买走了150套公寓中的120套。几个星期以前的中国中部城市武汉，300人在排队购买新房，一些人在开始销售前两天就来到售楼处。当地一家媒体的照片显示，充满渴望的消费者们带着椅子和折叠床，和他们的家人在售楼处外露宿。
如此活跃的市场对中国领导人来说喜忧参半。房地产市场的复兴是中国强有力地摆脱全球经济危机的关键因素，但是，房屋价格虚增也让人们越来越担心房地产行业转化为不稳定、危险的泡沫。根据政府的数据，10月份，70个城市的房地产价格在10月份比9月份上升了3.9％，是过去14个月以来的最大涨幅。有20个城市的房地产价格都比上个月上升了1％。这种现象不仅仅存在于中国海岸线上的那些富裕城市，像南京、昆明和重庆这些城市也出现了类似的价格攀升。尽管大多数观察家认为中国的房地产市场还没有出现泡沫效应，但是北京目前所面临的最大的一个挑战就是确保泡沫不要出现。BofA美林全球研究机构的经济学家在近期的一份报告中说：“迅速上升的房地产价格现在是中国政策指定者面对的首要问题。”
问题在于，疯狂扩张的房地产市场让北京很难决定何时以及如何放松严格的刺激政策，政策制定者们当初是为了应对经济危机而实施的这些政策。很明显，北京过度宽松的货币政策和房地产价格的飙升有必然的联系。中国的银行在2009年前10个月里新发放的贷款比2008年同期令人瞠目地上升了144％，达到1.3万亿美元。宽松的货币政策导致了房地产交易异乎寻常地火爆，10月份的交易面积（按首层面积计算）比去年同期增长了82％。担心大城市的房价将会超出普通中国人承受能力的情绪逐渐蔓延。这种情绪不但会引发社会不满，还会抑制公众的消费行为，而这恰恰是中国政策制定者们拼命想去提升的。如果家庭需要把更大部分的收入用来买房子，当然就会更多地占用消费其它商品的资金。
物价越高，中国的中央银行就要承受越大的压力来紧缩货币政策并缩短信用期。中国的一些观察家已经紧张起来。中国日报在11月5日的一篇评论中警告：“如果中国中央银行不迅速地响应来放缓贷款额的上升，不受控制的资产泡沫会严重扭曲资源配置，进而削弱国家的长期增长目标。”
尽管如此，政策制定者们必须谨慎行事。出口额在增长，但依然不足，现存的经济刺激措施在早期可能会误导经济恢复的方向。抑制房地产市场可能会影响经济增长，因为在这方面占据GDP总量10％的投资是中国经济反弹的核心驱动因素。2009年前三个季度的房地产投资比2008年同期增长了将近18％。
目前，中国政策制定者的方向是，经济增长依然是首要任务。经济学家认为中央银行在明年之内不会提高利率。分析人士认为政府在未来几个月里会转而使用局部规划的措施，来避免房地产泡沫、降低房地产价格，比如收紧购买第二条住房人的抵押贷款政策，这些人最有可能把买房作为投机的手段。
但是，经济学家认为，北京越长时间地放开经济刺激方案，中国房地产市场的繁荣时期就会越加面临崩溃的危险。世界银行北京办事处的中国经济学家Louis Kuijs在11月初评论到，尽管中国的政策制定者目前不需要“全面紧缩”，但是也“需要减轻资产价格泡沫的风险，以及资产高度流动性中的资源错误分配所造成的危害”。Kuijs总结说：“总体的货币政策最终还是会呈现紧缩的态势。”北京面临最大的考验就是确保这不会发生得太早，或者太晚。 |
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