本帖最后由 qywqszwgl666 于 2010-2-28 01:35 编辑
【原文标题】Facing up to China
【中文标题】直面中国
【登载媒体】经济学人
【来源地址】http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15452821( C' [: m4 s& \ y,
【译 者】 qywqszwgl666
【翻译方式】 人工AC四月青年社区- j2 r# N0 s! ~- G3 m
【声 明】 本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。" U" |1 {1 X3 v0 I+ P3 J! J# K
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=222676&extra=page%3D1%26amp%3Bfilter%3Dtype%26amp%3Btypeid%3D213
【译 文】 Facing up to China 直面中国 Making room for a new superpower should not be confused with giving way to it. 一个新兴超级大国：腾个位给她，而非让道于她。 Feb 4th 2010 | From The Economist print edition 2010年2月4号|摘自《经济学人》印刷版 FOR six decades now, Taiwan has been where the simmering distrust between China and America most risks boiling over. In 1986 Deng Xiaoping called it the “one obstacle in Sino-US relations”. So there was something almost ritualistic about the Chinese government’s protestations this week that it was shocked, shocked and angered by America’s decision to sell Taiwan $6 billion-worth of weaponry. Under the Taiwan Relations Act, passed in 1979, all American administrations must help arm Taiwan so that it can defend itself. And China, which has never renounced what it says is its right to “reunify” Taiwan by force, feels just as bound to protest when arms deals go through. After a squall briefly roils the waters, relations revert to their usual choppy but unthreatening passage. 六十年了，中美之间暗中发酵着的彼此猜忌，依旧最可能在台湾这个问题上爆发。邓小平在1986年称其为“中美关系的一个障碍”。因此本周对于美国决定出售台湾价值60亿美元的武器这件事，中国政府几乎是例行公事一般严正声明其很震惊，很震惊，很生气，很生气。按照1979年通过的《台湾关系法》，历届美国政府必须帮助武装台湾，使其能够自保。而中国始终坚持其有权利以武力统一台湾，因此在军售案通过时发起抗议，是理所当然的。在一阵狂风掠过水面短暂的激荡之后，中美关系又回到有波动但无大碍的老路上。 With luck, this will happen again. But the squalls are increasing in number, and the world’s most important bilateral relationship is getting stormy. If it goes wrong, historians will no doubt heap much of the blame on China’s aggression; but they will also measure Barack Obama on this issue, perhaps more than any other. 不凑巧，又要赶上这档子事儿了。不过这次是狂风阵阵，世界上最重要的双边关系正在被激化。如果出了什么差错，历史学家一定会大加指责中国的激进;但他们也有可能将评估奥巴马这件事情上起到的作用作为重点。 The China ascendancy 中国的优势 As if to highlight the underlying dangers, China has this time gone further than the usual blood-and-thunder warnings and suspension of military contacts (see article). It has threatened sanctions against American firms and the withdrawal of co-operation on international issues. Those threats, if carried out, would damage China’s interests seriously, so its use of them suggests that it hopes it can persuade Mr Obama to buckle—if not on this sale then perhaps on Taiwan’s mooted future purchases of advanced jet-fighters. But the unusual ferocity of the Chinese regime’s response also points to three dangerous undercurrents. 仿佛是为了突出强调这种潜在的危险，中国这次施以重拳而不单是以往强烈地警告和暂停军事交流（见文）。中方威胁要对美国企业实施制裁并撤销双方在国际问题上的合作。而这些声明一旦付诸实施，将严重损害中国的利益，因此通过这些强硬举措，中国如果不期望在这次军售上使奥巴马让步，就可能要在台湾提议的未来购买先进战斗机时才能有所希冀。但这次中国政府异乎寻常的激烈回应则预示着三股危险的暗流。 The first is the failure of China’s Taiwan policy. Under the presidency of Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan’s relations with the mainland have been better than ever before. Travel, trade and tourist links have strengthened. A free-trade agreement is under negotiation. Yet there is little sign of progress towards China’s main goal of “peaceful reunification”. Most Taiwanese want both economic co-operation and de facto independence. A similar failure haunts policy in Tibet, where our correspondent, on a rarely permitted trip to the region, found the attempt to buy Tibetans’ loyalty through the fruits of development apparently futile (see article). As talks between China and the emissaries of the Dalai Lama ended in the usual stalemate this week, China warned Mr Obama against his planned meeting with Tibet’s exiled spiritual leader. 暗流之一是中国台湾政策的失败。在马英九执政时期，台湾与中国大陆的关系要好于以前任何时候。大三通得到落实巩固，自由贸易协定也在商谈中。然而却几乎没有迹象表明中国正朝着“和平统一”的目标逐步迈进。大部分台湾人想兼得经济合作和独立现状。西藏政策也被同样失败的命运所困扰，我们的记者罕见地被允许进入这片地区，发现中国以发展成果换取藏人拥护的做法显然是没有成效的（见文）。随着本周中国与达赖特使之间的谈判以惯有的僵局而告终，中国警告了奥巴马和西藏流亡宗教领袖达赖的计划会谈。 Again, nothing new in that. There is, however, a new self-confidence these days in China’s familiar harangues about anything it deems sovereign. That is the second trend: China, after its successful passage through the financial crisis of late 2008, is more assertive and less tolerant of being thwarted—and not just over its “internal affairs”. From its perceived position of growing economic strength, China has been throwing its weight around. It played a central and largely unhelpful role at the climate-change talks in Copenhagen; it looks as if it will wreck a big-power consensus over Iran’s nuclear programme; it has picked fights in territorial disputes with India, Japan and Vietnam. At gatherings of all sorts, Chinese officials now want to have their say, and expect to be heeded. 又是一出老戏。这些天来中国对任何自认为有关主权的事情，发出了那熟悉的长篇斥责，不过这次的斥责中又增添了新的自信。暗流之二：中国在成功地度过了2008年年末的金融危机后，变得更加坚定自信并且在面对阻挠时少了些气量——这些变化并非只表现在其“国内事务”上。自从感受到自己的经济力量后，中国就表现得盛气凌人。在哥本哈根的气候峰会上，中国是主要的但很大程度上于事无益的角色；在伊核问题上多国达成的共识，中国看起来将要对其造成损害；并在与印度，日本和越南的领土争议上找碴儿。凡此种种皆表中国官员想要发出自己的声音，并希望你认真听着。 This suggests a dangerous third trend. As China has opened its economy since 1978, it has been frantically engaged in catching up with the rich West. That has led to the idea, even among many Chinese, that it would gradually become more “Western”. The slump in the West, however, has undermined that assumption. Many Chinese now feel they have little to learn from the rich world. On the contrary, a “Beijing consensus” has been gaining ground, extolling the virtues of decisive authoritarianism over shilly-shallying democratic debate. In the margins of international conferences such as the recent Davos forum, even American officials mutter despairingly about their own “dysfunctional” political system. 这又预示了第三股暗流。从1978年开放自己的经济开始，中国就一直在拼命追赶西方发达国家。因此就产生了这样的观点——中国将渐渐“西方化”，这种观点甚至存在于许多中国人当中。然而西方的萧条却削减了这种看法。许多中国人现在觉得从发达国家几乎学不到什么。相反，“北京共识”却流行起来，它赞美着坚决果断的权利主义在解决踟蹰不前的国内争端方面的优越性。在国际会议的间歇，比如此次的达沃斯论坛上，就连美国官员也在绝望地抱怨国内机能失调的政治体制。 A swing not a seesaw
秋千而非跷跷板 Two dangers arise from this loss of Western self-confidence. One is of trying to placate China. The delay in Mr Obama’s meeting with the Dalai Lama in order to smooth his visit to China in November gave too much ground, as well as turning an issue of principle into a bargaining chip. America needs to stand firmer. Beefing up the deterrent capacity of Taiwan, which China continues to threaten with hundreds of missiles, is in the interests of peace. Mr Obama should therefore proceed with the arms sales and European governments should back him. If American companies, such as Boeing, lose Chinese custom for political reasons, European firms should not be allowed to supplant them. 西方自信心的减弱导致了两个危机。其一是试图安抚中国。为了给十一月份奥巴马出访中国铺平道路而推迟总统与达赖会面的举措是做了过多的让步，也同时把原则性问题变成了可用来讨价还价的筹码。美国要坚定立场。中国有上百枚导弹震慑着台湾，因此增强台湾对大陆的威慑力是和平的需要。所以奥巴马总统应继续对台军售，与此同时欧洲政府应给予支持。如果像波音这样的美国企业，由于政治因素而失去中国的惠顾，欧洲公司不应取代美国企业来和中国做交易。 On the other hand the West should not be panicked into unnecessary confrontation. Rather than ganging up on China in an effort to “contain” it, the West would do better to get China to take up its share of the burden of global governance. Too often China wants the power due a global giant while shrugging off the responsibilities, saying that it is still a poor country. It must be encouraged to play its part—for instance, on climate change, on Iran and by allowing its currency to appreciate. As the world’s largest exporter, China’s own self-interest lies in a harmonious world order and robust trading system. 另一方面，在不必要的对峙面前西方世界不应感到恐慌。不是联合起来力图“遏制”中国，而是要让中国担负起相应分量的管理世界的重责。中国常常是渴求作为世界大国应有的权利，却推卸掉应有的责任，表示其仍是个贫穷国家。然而必须鼓励中国承担责任——比如在气候变化方面和伊朗问题方面，同时要使其人民币升值。作为世界上最大的出口国，中国的自身利益有赖于和谐的世界秩序和强健的贸易体系。 It is in the economic field that perhaps the biggest danger lies. Already the Obama administration has shown itself too ready to resort to trade sanctions against China. If China now does the same using a political pretext, while the cheapness of its currency keeps its trade surplus large, it is easy to imagine a clamour in Congress for retaliation met by a further Chinese nationalist backlash. That is why the administration and China’s government need to work together to pre-empt trouble. 最大的危机存在于经济领域。奥巴马政府已经表现出通过贸易制裁中国的意愿。但若中国以政治借口做同样的制裁，同时货币的低估使中国保持着巨额的贸易顺差，可以想见我们的国会将会强烈呼吁予以回击，而与此针锋相对的则是中国民族主义者的剧烈反弹。 正因如此，双方政府应齐心协力以防止灾祸的发生。 Some see confrontation as inevitable when a rising power elbows its way to the top table. But America and China are not just rivals for global influence, they are also mutually dependent economies with everything to gain from co-operation. Nobody will prosper if disagreements become conflicts. 当一股上升的力量奋力挤进世界的前列，有人认为对峙的存在不可避免。但是中美两国不仅仅是全球影响力的竞争者，也是相互依赖的经济体，合作才能造就一切。如果分歧发展为冲突，就没有人能繁荣兴旺。 | 
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发表于 2010-2-28 01:32
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