【原文标题】Why Is China Slowing its Military Spending?
【中文标题】中国为何为其军费支出增长减速
【来源网址】 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1970448,00.html
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-228926-1-1.html
【译者】Krypton
【翻译方式】人工翻译
【特别声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载
【译文】
Why Is China Slowing its Military Spending?
By Austin Ramzy / Beijing Monday, Mar. 08, 2010
For the past two decades, China's rapid economic growth has been twinned with an even more rapid increase in military spending. While GDP has expanded by an annual average of 9.6% over the past 10 years, the reported budget for the People's Liberation Army has grown by an average of 16%. So it was an unexpected surprise when Li Zhaoxing, a former foreign minister who is now spokesman for the National People's Congress, announced on March 4 that China's defense budget would increase by 7.5% for 2010, just over half of last year's 14.9% rise.
过去20年中国经济的飞速增长，而于此同时，其军费支出增速更快。过去十年，中国的GDP一平均每年9.6%的速度扩张，但据报道其解放军预算增速达每年16%，所以，当前中国外交部长，现全国人名代表大会发言人李肇星与3.4发布的2010年中国国防预算增长率为7.5%时，人们对此感到相当意外。
The slowdown was partly attributed the difficult economic climate. While China was able to grow at 8.7% last year, that healthy rate came at the expense of $586 billion in stimulus spending. Last week Premier Wen Jiabao said that government spending would grow more slowly this year as Beijing seeks to control inflation while maintaining stable growth. (See pictures of the making of modern China.)
军费支出减速部分原因归咎于目前困难的经济环境，去年中国GDP增速为8.7%，但这个可观的结果是由于去年5860亿美元的刺激消费的结果。温家宝总理上周表示为控制通胀同时保增长，今年将进一步降低政府支出。
Amid those economic demands, another double-digit increase in military spending might be seen as excessive. But perhaps the most compelling reason for the slowdown in spending is that Chinese officials have become more cautious of the way the development of the People's Liberation Army is perceived abroad. Last year China marked the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic with an Oct. 1 military parade in front of Tiananmen Square. While generally a cause for celebration in China, the parade of soldiers, tanks and missile carriers was seen as intimidating by many foreign observers.
鉴于这些经济形势，军费支出再来一个两位数的增长看上去就有点过分了。但最具说服里的原因是中国官员越来越在意海外对中国人民解放军的发展方式的解读。去年为庆祝中华人民共和国成立60周年中国于10.01日在天安门广场举行了阅兵。虽然这对中国来说是庆祝的理由，但受阅士兵，坦克和装甲车等在外国观察员眼里这被视为威胁。
Chinese military analysts have explained the rapid spending increase as normal for a large nation climbing out of decades of poverty. "Although China now has a growing military demand, it has always upheld the principle of peaceful development. The double-digit increases in the past should be interpreted as compensational growth," says Zhao Zongjiu, deputy secretary-in-general at Shanghai Institute for International Strategic Studies, a government-backed think tank. "I predict that, given the current policy environment, the growth rate of military expenses will remain roughly on the same level as China's GDP growth in the next few years." (See pictures of China's infrastructure boom.)
中国军方分析者解释说对于一个刚刚走出几十年贫困的大国来说，如此迅速的军费支出是很正常的。上海国际战略研究所这个有国家支持的智囊团副秘书长表示：“尽管中国对军力增长的胃口越来越大，他总保持和平发展的原则。过去两位数的增长可以理解为补偿性增长，可以预计，在当前的政策形势下军费支出的增长率大体上将与今后几年的GDP增长率保持一致。”
China's 2010 military budget, which is awaiting legislative approval, will be $78 billion. That would make it second only to the United States, which for 2010 has a total budget of $663.8 billion. U.S. spending is equivalent to 4.7% of the nation's GDP, while China's defense outlay equals about 1.5% of its estimated 2010 GDP. But military observers have long cautioned that China's official defense budget figures shouldn't be taken at face value, and that actual spending could be two or three times higher than what is reported. China is engaged in a significant number of expensive military equipment development programs, including likely efforts to develop its first aircraft carrier. Those all make it difficult to curtail spending, says Andrei Chang, Hong Kong-based editor-in-chief of Kanwa Defense Review Monthly. "There are very ambitious military plans for the Chinese," he says. "This is the reason it's impossible to have an increase of 7.5%."
中国2010年780亿美元的国防预算只待两会审议通过。该军费支出仅美国——美国2010年军费预算总量为6638亿美元，占其GDP的4.7%，二中国军费支出只占2010年预计GDP的1.5%。但长久以来军事观察家一直警告说中国的军费支出不能只看表面的数字，其真实支出可能为报道的2~3倍。中国几年将从事大量昂贵的军备发展计划，其中包括可能建造第一所航母的努力。所有这一切都很难限制支出。总部位于香港的汉和防务评论主编Andrei Chang说：“这就是他们的军费不可能只增长7.5%的原因。”
Improving ties with Taiwan have also lessened some of the military tension along China's periphery. Beijing considers the self-ruled island a breakaway province that should ultimately be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary. A more China-friendly leadership in Taipei has helped eased some of the fear of armed conflict. But the region still has the potential to be a flash point. Taiwan says China has some 1,500 missiles stationed along the Taiwan Strait. And a decision by U.S. President Obama in January to approve the sale of more than $6 billion in military equipment to Taiwan has angered the Chinese government, which has postponed some military exchanges with the U.S. in protest.
同时与台湾关系的改进也降低了中国外围的军事压力，北京认为这个自治的岛屿是从中国脱离的一个省，最终应该与大陆统一，不排除武统的可能。如今这个更亲中国的台北领导人也助于减轻对武力冲突的担忧。但该地区仍然是一个潜在的冲突点。台方表示中国在台湾海峡部署了约1500枚导弹。同时今年一月奥巴马批准的一项多达60亿的对台军售的决定激怒了中国，做为抗议，中方推迟了多项与美国的军事交流。
Chang also notes that China is just two years away from an expected reconfiguration of its leadership. President Hu Jintao is expected to step down, and will want to secure high positions for his political allies. Drastically curtailing defense spending could alienate the military, whose support he needs to ensure top spots for his proteges. "The new round of political power struggle is continuing," Chang says. "You have to give souvenirs to the armed forces."
Chang同时注意到再过两年中国的领导层即将重组。胡锦涛主席即将卸任并想为其政治盟友握牢高层职位。大大限制国防支出将疏远军方，他有需要军方的支持来确保其门生的高层职位。“chang说：“新一轮的政治较力还在持续，你的给武装力量一点东西做留念.”
— with reporting by Jessie Jiang
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