【中文标题】中国的受教育者担忧未来 之四 任其自生自灭
【原文标题】Educated and Fearing The Future in China - Waiting It Out
【登载媒体】纽约时报
【原文作者】Daniel A. Bell
【原文链接】http://roomfordebate.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/07/educated-and-fearing-the-future-in-china/
Albert Park是牛津大学中国经济问题的学者。他曾经参与主导了几个有关中国城市工人的调查项目。目前正在负责一个有关全球经济危机对中国就业影响的项目，该项目由世界银行赞助。
中国多年以来一直在面临大学毕业生的就业压力，高等教育机构的毕业生人数从2000年的950万猛增至2006年的3780万。
与此同时，城市地区的大学毕业生失业率从2000年的6.3%上升到2005年的11.9％，而那些受教育程度不高的人群的失业率却在下降。这些数字来自普查统计数据。如果大学毕业生们还没有开始调整自己的期望以应对现实，那实在太令人吃惊了。
近几年，很多大学毕业生对工作的起点工资水平深感失望，有些人宁可去等待一个更好的第一份工作，因为第一份工作对将来的职业发展方向有着深远的影响。其实，大学生在进入工作岗位之后，薪资水平会随经验的积累而有所增长的。而且，等待所付出的代价最终还是会让毕业生们被迫接受现存的工作机会。
但是，市场上有足够多的工作岗位吗？经济危机缩减了大学毕业生的就业市场规模，但是有迹象显示中国经济已经开始复苏了。
这一宏观趋势必然表明，当前的经济状况可以吸收更多的大学毕业生。首先，受大学教育者在城市地区所获取的经济回报（指大学毕业生与职业学校毕业生之间的工资差的百分比）在过去几年有显著的上升，从1988年的不到12％增长到21世纪的40％，而且没有下降的趋势，可以说，这是大学毕业生们所曾经得到过的最高经济回报。这表明，对受过大学教育者的社会需求的增长还是高于毕业生人数的增长的。
总而言之，大学毕业生占整个国家城市劳动力的比例还不到10％。随着全球一体化和科学技术的迅速发展，高技术含量的劳动力的需求将继续占主导地位。中国的大学毕业生有理由对未来保持乐观态度。
原文：
Albert Park is a reader in the economy of China at the University of Oxford. He has co-directed several surveys on China’s urban workers and is currently leading a World Bank-supported project on the impact of the global economic crisis on employment in China.
China has been confronting the challenge of employing college graduates for some years now. The number of graduates from regular institutions of higher education increased dramatically from 9.5 million in 2000 to 37.8 million in 2006.
Meanwhile, the urban unemployment rate for college graduates increased from 6.3 percent in 2000 to 11.9 percent in 2005, while declining for those with less education, according to calculations based on census data. It would be surprising if the expectations of college graduates have not begun to adjust to the new reality.
In recent years, many college graduates have been disappointed by the salaries for starting positions. Some may feel they would rather wait for a better first job, since first jobs can strongly influence future career paths. Of course, wages of college graduates tend to rise with experience once employed. Eventually, the costs of waiting will force graduates to accept available job offers.
But are sufficient jobs available? The economic crisis certainly reduced the job market for recent graduates, but evidence suggests that the Chinese economy has bounced back.
The broader trends definitely suggest that the economy will be able to absorb more graduates. First, the economic returns to college education (the percentage difference in wages for college graduates compared with high school graduates) in urban areas have increased tremendously over time, from less than 12 percent in 1988 to nearly 40 percent by the early 2000s, with no signs of declining, and such economic returns are highest for recent graduates. This suggests that increases in the demand for college-educated workers continues to outpace the increase in supply.
Overall, the percentage of the national urban labor force that is college-educated remains less than 10 percent, while global integration and rapid technological change increasingly place a premium on high-skill workers. China’s college graduates have reason to be optimistic about the future. |
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