[原创翻译]吉尔吉斯坦叛乱 中美俄明争暗斗拼利益

西儿

Massive stakes for Russia, China and U.S. in Kyrgyzstan’s outcome
中美俄在吉尔吉斯坦局势上重下赌注

原文链接：
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/793166--massive-stakes-for-russia-china-and-u-s-in-kyrgyzstan-s-outcome

内容提要：
吉尔吉斯坦的两个大邻国中国和俄罗斯，再加上在阿富汗忙得不亦乐乎的美国，都在密切关心着吉的局势。俄罗斯为控制，美国为军事，中国为经济。谁都太关心，谁都不出手。事态越来越扑朔迷离。

Before this week, only a few Western officials, soldiers and mountain climbers could pinpoint remote Kyrgyzstan on the map. But the bloody coup that ousted President Kurmanbek Bakiyev threw an international spotlight on a country that has been at the centre of a quiet, backstage tug-of-war for the past decade.

Kyrgyzstan’s two massive neighbours, Russia and China, along with the U.S., have major stakes in the outcome of the revolt, which has placed former diplomat Roza Otunbayeva at the head of a provisional government, while Bakiyev hunkers down in his southern stronghold.
吉尔吉斯坦的两个大邻国俄罗斯和中国连同美国非常关心这起叛乱的结果。在叛乱中，前外交官Otunbayeva被推上临时政府首脑的位置，而Bakiyev则回到南部的大本营运筹帷幄。

Bets are on as to which of the three will emerge the winner.
中美俄三国将会一赌谁会是其中的赢家。

For Washington it’s all about the Manas air base, a vital staging point for Afghanistan-bound troops and supplies that is now in doubt. For Russia, renewed power and prestige in the region where it was once master. And for China, economic expansion and security ties that are needed to underpin its own “wild West.”
对美国来说，这关乎其玛纳斯空军基地的问题，该基地是美国驻阿富汗军队的部队和物资的重要中转站，现在的状况却不明朗。对俄罗斯来说，这关乎其曾经管辖地区的新政权和声誉。而对中国，这关系到其经济发展和稳定其动乱的西部的安全纽带。

All are looking on uneasily, and none can afford for tiny Kyrgyzstan to fail.
三国都在不安的观望，没有一国能付得起小小的吉尔吉斯坦亡国的代价。

“No one wants instability, but no one is taking the initiative,” says Oksana Antonenko of the International Institute for Security Studies in London. “They’re all in a difficult position.”
学者说，“没有人希望动荡，但也没有人主动出击。他们都处在很艰难的位置。”

After the coup this week, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was first to recognize the provisional government, while denying he had anything to do with the coup. But a Russian MP hinted that Moscow could send peacekeepers if the crisis spirals out of control.
本星期的政变发生后，俄罗斯总理普京首先承认了临时政府，但他否认与政变有任何关系。但是俄一位国会议员暗示说，如果危机失控，俄罗斯可能会派出维和部队。

Otunbayeva told reporters that her top deputy was holding talks in Moscow on Russian government aid, fuelling rumours that Russia was due for a comeback in a territory where it once held sway.

The coup also opens the door to a renewed power struggle between Washington and Moscow over the Manas base, which the U.S. opened after the invasion of Afghanistan, and Russia fiercely opposed.
美军在入侵阿富汗之后启用了玛纳斯基地，曾遭到俄强烈反对。现在，政变也开启了美俄的玛纳斯军事基地权力之争。

Moscow has its own small base in Kyrgyzstan, and has reportedly made a deal to open another. But American boots on the former Soviet soil raised hackles in Russia and Bakiyev was able to play off the two rivals.
俄罗斯在吉尔吉斯坦有一个小的基地，并曾报道说已协议再建一个基地。但是美国却挑起这个前苏联的属地对俄罗斯的愤怒，Bakiyev 却能在两个对手间周旋。

The Kremlin was outraged when the Kyrgyz leader accepted a $2 billion promise of aid and loans after pledging to shut down the U.S. base, but later reneged when Washington agreed to triple its rent payments.
吉尔吉斯坦曾先接受了俄国20美元的援助和贷款承诺，同意关闭美国基地，但随后在美国同意支付三倍的租金后，吉又反悔，这使得俄罗斯震怒。

Moscow officials were quick to hint that Manas’s days might be numbered, and an influential member of the new Kyrgyz government echoed their sentiments. Otunbayeva indicated that it would continue, although “some questions” remained.

“She’s a known quantity, she’s Westernized, and it’s highly unlikely that she’d be in bed with Russia on the base issue,” said Central Asia expert Annette Bohr of Chatham House in London.

But Washington’s failure to hold Kyrgyzstan accountable for corruption and human rights abuses, even while protesting similar problems in Afghanistan, has alienated many of Otunbayeva’s colleagues in the new government, as well as ordinary Kyrgyz.

The bottom line, says Bohr, is money. “The U.S. contributes a significant amount to Kyrgyzstan’s budget.” That amounts to $177 million (U.S.) of its small $5 billion budget, in a country where the average income is $2,100.

To Washington, Kyrgyzstan is mainly as an access route to Afghanistan. But Moscow’s goal is more uncertain, observers say.
美国主要只是把吉尔吉斯坦当作通向阿富汗的道路，但是俄罗斯的目标却更不确定。

“It wants recognition that Kyrgyzstan is a sphere of privileged interest, and it wants control,” says Eurasia expert Alexander Cooley of Columbia University. “But how to do that, and for what? Russia doesn’t know how to translate influence into monopoly.” Especially in a country that has learned to manoeuvre in its own interest.
哥伦比亚大学专家说，“俄罗斯需要人来认同吉尔吉斯坦是它的特殊利益属地，俄想要控制吉。但是怎么做？为什么这么做？俄罗斯不知道如何将影响变成垄断。”

And, he says, Moscow’s real threat is not from the West, but from China.
“俄罗斯的真正威胁不是来自西方，而是中国”

While Moscow and Washington faced off over the air base, China moved in briskly with infrastructure projects, opening the first major gas pipeline from the former Soviet states to China without going through Russia, a move that weakened Moscow’s grip on its old back yard.
当美俄因海军基地而僵持不下的时候，中国已迅速携基础设施建设的工程开通了前苏联到中国的第一条主要天然气线，管线没有经过俄罗斯，此举削弱了俄罗斯对其后院的掌控权力。

Beijing has also won cooperation from Kyrgyzstan on securing its borders against terrorism.
中国还获得了与吉尔吉斯坦保卫边境不受恐怖袭击的合作权。

But few of the gains from China’s building boom have trickled down to Kyrgyzstan’s poor, in a landlocked country where bad governance has stymied development.

“Every day you see pictures on the screen of desperate people living in poverty and hopelessness,” said Antonenko.
“The question is, can the opposition break the pattern?”

做为大国，注定不能在任何一场小的国际事件中采取隔岸观火的态度。客观的看，吉尔吉斯坦这个弹丸之地的政变中，中美俄显示了一贯的风格：俄国用幕后政治控制周边小国，美国财大气粗霸气十足买军事，中国泰然自若暗度陈仓搞经济。真是很好奇谁会是最后的赢家呢。

PS：非常感谢网友们帮忙挑错，AC粉丝西儿谢过！
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有时一点不吐不快的大情结，有时一点悲天悯人的小伤感。
西儿与您共享。

bgz

这小国在地缘上就在中俄边，还是中亚的心脏地带，地理上就是悲剧啊，怎么也逃不过大国的控制的。

chenjen.cje

吉尔吉斯坦曾先接受了英国20美元的援助和贷款承诺

应该是 接受俄国 20亿美元吧的援助和贷款承诺 吧

chenjen.cje

管线没有绕过俄罗斯

应该是没有经过俄罗斯 吧

西儿

回复 3# chenjen.cje

小编糊涂了~非常感谢

luke99e3

中国还获得了与吉尔吉斯坦保卫边境不守恐怖袭击的合作权。
应该是“不受”恐怖袭击吧