本帖最后由 青蛙小王子 于 2010-4-17 09:41 编辑
【中文标题】中国的印度政策背后，一场辩论日益升温 【原文标题】 Behind China's India policy, a growing debate 【刊载媒体】印度教徒报 【原文链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=237217&page=1&extra=#pid3431609 【翻译方式】人工 【译者】青蛙小王子 【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不可转载。 【译文】 Earlier this year, the United States' decision to approve a $ 6.4-billion arms sale to Taiwan sparked a series of agitated commentaries in China's military journals. The tone will sound somewhat familiar to an Indian audience: it reflected a growing anxiety among strategists that the U.S. was building a “crescent-shaped ring” to encircle and contain China. 今年早些时候，美国批准了一项64亿美元的对台军售决议，引起了中国军方媒体的一系列激烈评论。这种论调对印度受众而言似曾相识：它反映了中国战略家日益担忧美国在构筑“新月形”包围圈并遏制中国。 Interestingly, much of the debate focussed on what role India would — or would not — play in a supposed U.S.-led “encirclement.” Some strategists expressed concern that an eventual “integration of India” into an American alliance “would profoundly affect China's security,” as the official China Daily reported. Dai Xu, an Air Force Colonel of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), warned that China needed to be vigilant against this growing network running “from Japan to India” that would suffocate China. 有趣的是，这场辩论中的许多内容都聚焦于印度将会或将不会在这个所谓美国领导的“包围圈”中扮演什么角色。据中国官方媒体《中国日报》报道，一些战略家担心“印度的最终加入”美国联盟“将给中国安全带来深远影响”。中国人民解放军空军上校戴旭警告说，中国需要警惕可能会使中国窒息的“从日本到印度”日益扩大的网络。 Others, however, were not so convinced, and instead sought to calm the tensions. Pei Yuanying, former Chinese Ambassador to India, said India, as “an independent international power in the international arena,” was “unlikely to be part of any such U.S. scheme.” 然而，有人对此并不那么信服。相反，他们主张寻求平息这种紧张气氛。中国前驻印度大使裴远颖认为，印度作为“国际舞台上一个独立的大国”，不太可能成为美国此类图谋的一部分。 Shen Dingli, one of the leading voices in the strategic community in Beijing, also disagreed with Dai's views in an interview with The Hindu, suggesting that the current relationship was sound enough for China to have no reason to worry about India's ties with the U.S. 北京战略研究机构著名学者沈丁立在接受《印度教徒报》采访时，也不同意戴旭的观点。他指出，中印两国的关系目前足够牢靠，因此中国无需担心印美关系。 These differing views point to an ongoing debate in Beijing on a question that many policymakers are grappling with: how should China engage with a rising India? On one side of the debate are voices from the PLA, who are pressing Beijing to take a harder line with India and who see little room for cooperation between two rivals. On the other are voices in the Hu Jintao government and official think tanks, which are pushing for a more moderate and non-confrontational foreign policy line, one which they see as crucial to China's own self-interest and continued development. 如何应对崛起中的印度？中国的众多决策者正在设法解决这个问题。上述的不同观点反映了当前对此的争论。一方是来自中国人民解放军的声音，他们认为两个竞争对手之间合作的空间甚小，要求中国政府对印度采取更加强硬的路线。另一方则是来自胡锦涛政府及其智囊团的声音，他们主张推行更加温和与非对抗性的外交政策，他们认为这对中国的自身利益和持续发展是至关重要的。
The military view 军方的观点 The appearance of a number of articles and commentaries last year in military journals and official Communist Party-run newspapers has led some to suggest that the first group is increasingly beginning to have its voice heard. In recent months, articles in influential publications like the People's Daily, have taken a noticeably harder line on India, accusing New Delhi of “arrogance” and calling on China to take a stronger position on the border dispute. The People's Daily, in particular, has also begun to devote extensive coverage to India's military build-up, frequently speaking of an “India threat.” 去年中国军事刊物和党营官方报纸的诸多文章和评论已经隐隐约约地表明了第一派的声音已开始日益占据上风。近几个月来，一些诸如《人民日报》等有影响力的媒体的文章，都对印度采取了明显的强硬路线。这些文章指责新德里“狂妄自大”，并呼吁中国在边界争端上采取更加强硬的立场。尤其是《人民日报》已经开始大篇幅地报道印度的军事集结，屡次谈及了“印度威胁。” The articles more or less reflected the “PLA view” of Sino-Indian ties, according to Srikanth Kondapalli, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University who studies the Chinese military. According to him and other analysts, this view is predicated on three basic policy positions on India. The first assumes that India is seeking to become a great power. The policy response is to support Pakistan, which China continues to do, and confine India's influence to South Asia. The second, he says, assumes that India has “hegemonic ambitions in South Asia” — a phrase often used by the People's Daily last year. The policy response in China is to “oppose hegemony” by supporting smaller states in South Asia, like Nepal and Bangladesh. The third is on India's presence in the Indian Ocean, and the policy response is to strengthen China's naval capabilities. 贾瓦哈拉尔尼赫鲁大学中国军事问题专家康德帕里称，这些文章或多或少显示出了中印关系的“军方观点”。据他与其他分析家分析，这种观点基于对印度的3个基本立场。第一是认定印度正在谋求成为强国，其应对之策就是支持巴基斯坦，限制印度在南亚的影响力。第二是认为印度有成为“南亚霸主的野心”---去年《人民日报》经常用到此措词。其应对之策就是通过支持尼泊尔和孟加拉国等小国“反对霸权”。第三就是印度在印度洋的军事存在，其应对之策则是增强中国海军的实力。 The other view 另一方的观点 Much as the PLA is influential, its view by no means reflects a consensus opinion among the highest policymakers. Besides the PLA, there are at least three groups which have a role in shaping China's India policy, including commercial lobbies, retired officials and a select group of India scholars in official think tanks. This section tends to view the relationship beyond the narrow military paradigm of the PLA. It argues that despite the persisting mistrust between the countries, it is in China's own interest, both from the point of view of sustaining its economic development and its standing as a responsible world power, to have harmonious relations with India and a peaceful periphery. 尽管中国军方极具影响力，但其观点绝不代表最高层决策者的共识。除了解放军，中国至少还有其他3个群体可影响对印政策，包括商业游说团体、退休官员和官方智库的印度问题学者。这一派看中印关系往往不限于解放军狭隘的军事视角，他们认为尽管两国之间依然互不信任，但是无论从经济的持续发展还是从负责任的世界强国的观点上看，跟印度搞好关系、确保周边和平都符合中国的自身利益。 “Many people in the Chinese government realise that despite historical differences, there are growing commonalities in relations between the two countries and their positions on international issues,” says Ma Jiali, a leading South Asia scholar at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), who advises the government on its India policy. “There is also the common goal that both countries do not want to see a unipolar world.” He considers “four roles” India plays in shaping his policy view — “a close neighbour, a developing country with common goals, a rising power and an increasingly important international player.” “The basic fact is,” he continues, “we must have good relations with India, or our national interest will be damaged.” 中国现代国际关系研究南亚问题专家、中国印度政策顾问马加力称，“许多中国政府官员认识到，尽管存在历史分歧，但是在两国关系和国际问题上，中印两国正有着越来越多的交集点。两国都有致力于推动世界多极化的共同目标”。在他的政策主张中，他认为印度扮演着如下四个角色----“一个亲密的邻居、一个与之拥有着共同目标的发展中国家、一个崛起的大国以及日益重要的国际参与者。”他继续说道：“基本事实是，我们必须和印度保持良好的关系，否则我们的国际利益就会受到损害。” His view is echoed by Sun Shihai, another influential ‘India hand' at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. He says he “completely disagrees” with the policy views voiced by the nationalistic commentaries in much of the official media last year. “Many of those reports misperceived India very deeply,” says Professor Sun. “Among most scholars at least, there is a growing awareness that India's power is rising, its international status is rising, and these facts are a reality that cannot be altered.” He believes that it is in China's self-interest to work with India on issues in which the countries have a common stake such as climate change and combating terrorism. “China has more respect [now] for India's rise, and it is in our interest to co-operate where we can, as we did so effectively last year at Copenhagen [on climate change],” he says. “But as two rising powers with growing international roles and strategic weight, cooperation and competition will be natural. What the governments need to do is manage the competition and avoid conflict. Most serious scholars are of this view.” 他的观点得到了中国社科院的另一名有影响力的印度问题专家孙士海的响应。孙士海称，他“完全不同意”去年多数国家媒体发表的民族主义评论中的政策见解。孙教授称：“其中的大部分报道都深深地误解了印度。至少大部分专家都意识到了，印度的国力在上升以及国际地位在提升，这些都是不可改变的事实。”他相信，在诸如气候变化和反恐战争等与印度有着共同利害关系的问题上与印度进行合作，符合中国自身的利益。他说“中国[现在]对印度的崛起有了更多的尊重，我们应该尽量与印度合作，就像我们去年在哥本哈根[气候会议]上所做到的一样。大部分严肃的专家都认为，当两个国际影响力和战略地位日益上升的国家同时崛起时，竞争与合作是很自然的事。政府需要做的是处理竞争与避免冲突。”
Reading the debate 辩论解读 Do these different views matter to India? Chinese foreign policy is ultimately decided at the highest levels of the ruling Communist Party's Central Committee using these various inputs. But how these inputs get used is “an extremely complicated process,” says Prof. Kondapalli. “Various groups put out their agenda to try and have their opinions heard, but what is eventually decided depends on who has greater influence at a given moment in time.” For now though, the outcome of this debate still seems uncertain. “The academic community appears to follow a soft and co-operative line while the PLA maintains its stridency to keep India on tenterhooks,” says Brigadier (retd.) Arun Sahgal of the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. 这些不同观点对印度重要吗？中国的外交政策最终由中共中央最高层在吸收不同观点后权衡作出。但这是“极为复杂的过程”，康达帕里教授说：“各种组织制定议事日程来试图宣传自己的意见，但最终的决定只取决于谁在某一个特定时刻有更大的影响。” 目前看来，这场辩论的结果仍然很难确定。新德里和平与冲突研究所的退伍准将Arun Sahgal说：“学术界采取的是温和合作的态度，而解放军方则保持对印度高度警惕”
Until there is greater clarity on its outcome, the mistrust between the countries will likely persist. For usually, it is only the harder “PLA view” of India that gets covered in the media, serving as fodder for the often over-hyped ‘China threat' perspectives dished out by strategic analysts. Part of the reason, no doubt, is that these views are more “newsworthy” than balanced views from the government and other scholars. But another factor behind misperceptions is the continuing opacity in China's own government, in both policy-making and the state's control of the media. 在这场辩论的结果仍未确定之前，中印两国之间的不信任可能仍将持续。因为通常只有更强硬的“军方观点”见诸媒体，这助长了战略分析家们经常夸大的“中国威胁”论。毫无疑问，部分原因在于这些观点比政府和其他专家们温和的观点更具“新闻价值”。但是这些误解背后的另一个原因在于中国政府自己在政策制定和对媒体的控制上仍然不透明。 “The main problem in understanding China's policies is the lack of transparency, which often leads to misperceptions” Prof. Kondapalli says. Consequently, even extreme opinions, from any media outlet, often tend to be regarded as Beijing's official line, and drown out other views even if they are no more than voices in an ongoing debate. And until China becomes more transparent, analysts say, external observers will likely continue to imagine the worst when reading the tea leaves. 康达帕里教授称，“中国的政策通常会使人误解，了解其政策的主要问题在于其缺乏透明度。”因此，来源于任何媒体机构的极端言论往往都会被认为是中国官方的说法。即使这些言论仅仅是一场争辩，他们也会淹没其他的声音。分析家称，在中国变得更加透明之前，外国的观察家们在听取了一些民间的看法后，很可能会继续往最坏处去想。 | 
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