本帖最后由 下个月 于 2010-4-21 07:46 编辑
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【中文标题】中国在地缘上的实力
【原文标题】The Geography of Chinese Power
【登载媒体】纽约时报
【来源地址】/ http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/20/opinion/20iht-edkaplan.html?scp=1&sq=the%20geography%20of%20chinese%20power&st=cse.
【译者】猴猴猴
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-239382-1-1.html
【译文】 China’s blessed geography is so obvious a point that it tends to get overlooked in discussions of the country’s economic dynamism and national assertiveness. Yet it is essential: It means that China will stand at the hub of geopolitics even if the country’s path toward global power is not necessarily linear.
中国的地理环境得天独厚，是如此明显，但是它往往在关于该国的经济活力和民族自信的讨论中被忽视。 然而，这很重要：这意味着，中国将站在地缘政治的中心，即使该国通向世界权力之路不一定是笔直的。
Today China’s ambitions are as aggressive as those of the United States a century ago, but for completely different reasons. China does not take a missionary approach to world affairs, seeking to spread an ideology or a system of government. Instead, its actions are propelled by its need to secure energy, metals and strategic minerals in order to support the rising living standards of its immense population.
今天中国的野心和美国一个世纪以前一样富有侵略性，但却出于完全不同的原因。中国不对世界事务采取一种传教士的方式，去寻求传播一种意识形态或一种政府制度。相反，它的行动是被能源安全，金属矿产和战略资源的需求所驱动，以支持其巨大数量人口的生活水平的不断改善。
Within the Chinese state, Xinjiang and Tibet are the two principal areas whose inhabitants have resisted China’s pull. In order to secure Xinjiang — and the oil, natural gas, copper, and iron ore in its soil — Beijing has for decades been populating it with Han Chinese from the country’s heartland. The mountainous Tibetan Plateau is rich in copper and iron ore and accounts for much of China’s territory. This is why Beijing views with horror the prospect of Tibetan autonomy and why it is frantically building roads and railroads across the area.
在中国政府内，新疆和西藏是两个主要地区——那里的居民曾经抵制中国掌控。为了保护新疆（和它土地里的石油油，天然气，铜，铁矿），北京数十年来一直从该国的中心地带向这里移民汉人。 多山的西藏高原的富含铜矿和铁矿，对中国的版图很重要。这就是为什么北京害怕考虑西藏自治的期待以及为什么疯狂地建设穿越该地区的公路和铁路。
China’s northern border wraps around Mongolia, a giant territory that looks like it was once bitten out of China’s back. Mongolia has one of the world’s lowest population densities and is now being threatened demographically by an urban Chinese civilization next door.
Having once conquered Outer Mongolia to gain access to more cultivable land, Beijing is poised to conquer Mongolia again, albeit indirectly, through the acquisition of its natural resources. North of Mongolia and of China’s three northeastern provinces lies Russia’s Far East region, a numbing vastness twice the size of Europe with a meager and shrinking population and large reserves of natural gas, oil, timber, diamonds and gold.
As with Mongolia, the fear is not that the Chinese army will one day invade or formally annex the Russian Far East. It is that Beijing’s demographic and corporate control over the region is steadily increasing.
中国的北部边界环绕着蒙古，一个看起来就像是曾经从中国的背上咬走了的巨大的领土。蒙古国是世界上人口密度最低的国家之一，现在正在人口统计学意义上被隔壁的城市化的中国文明威胁着。 曾经占领了外蒙古获取了更多的耕地，北京已作好准备，再次征服蒙古，虽然间接地，通过对其天然资源的获取。 蒙古北部和中国北部的东北三省位于俄罗斯远东地区——一个浩瀚的，是欧洲两倍大的地方，蕴藏着大量的天然气，石油，木材，钻石和黄金，同时人口稀薄并日渐萎缩。 正和蒙古一样，（俄罗斯）害怕的不是中国军队的入侵或有一天将正式吞并俄罗斯远东地区，而是北京的人口和企业对该地区的控制正逐渐增加。
China’s influence is also spreading southeast. In fact, it is with the relatively weak states of Southeast Asia that the emergence of a Greater China is meeting the least resistance. There are relatively few geographic impediments separating China from Vietnam, Laos, Thailand and Myanmar, and China continues to develop profitable relationships with its southern neighbors. It uses Asean (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as a market for selling high-value Chinese manufactured goods while buying from it low-value agricultural produce.
中国的影响力也正向东南地区扩散。事实上，相对弱小的东南亚各国的相对薄弱，没有给“大中华”的形成带来什么阻力。 相对来说，几乎没有地理上的阻隔将中国和越南，老挝，泰国和缅甸分隔开，中国将继续发展与南部邻国的利益关系。它将东盟（东南亚国家联盟）作为一个销售其高价值的中国商品的市场，而从那里购买的低价值的农产品。
Central Asia, Mongolia, the Russian Far East and Southeast Asia are natural zones of Chinese influence. But they are also zones whose political borders are not likely to change. The situation on the Korean Peninsula is different. No one really expects China to annex any part of the Korean Peninsula, of course, But although it supports Kim Jong-il’s Stalinist regime, it has plans for the peninsula beyond his reign. Beijing would like to eventually dispatch there the thousands of North Korean defectors who now are in China so that they could build a favorable political base for Beijing’s gradual economic takeover of the region.
中亚，蒙古，俄罗斯远东地区和东南亚是中国影响力的自然地带。但他们也是不太可能改变政治边界。朝鲜半岛的局势不同。没有人真的希望中国吞并半岛的任何一部分，当然，朝鲜半岛的一部分，但是，尽管它支持金正日的独裁政权——对半岛他的统治范围之外拥有野心。 北京希望最终遣返数千现在生活在中国的叛逃北朝鲜的人，这样他们可以建立一个有利的政治基础，为北京在经济上逐步接管该地区。
China is as blessed by its seaboard as by its continental interior, but it faces a far more hostile environment at sea than it does on land., The Chinese Navy sees little but trouble in what it calls the “first island chain”: the Korean Peninsula, the Kuril Islands, Japan (including the Ryukyu Islands), Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and Australia. China’s answer to feeling so boxed in has been aggressive at times — for example when, in March 2009, a handful of Chinese Navy ships harassed the U.S. surveillance ship Impeccable while it was openly conducting operations in the South China Sea.
中国的海岸和内陆一样得天独厚，但它在海上面临着比陆上更为敌对的环境。中国海军的小麻烦，即所说的“第一岛链”：朝鲜半岛，在千岛群岛，日本（包括琉球群岛），台湾，菲律宾，印度尼西亚和澳大利亚。 中国有时对这种包围反应强烈——例如在2009年3月，中国海军几个舰艇骚扰美国海军监测船“无瑕号”，而当时它正在南中国进行公开的海上作业。
Beijing is also preparing to envelop Taiwan not just militarily but economically and socially. How this comes about will be pivotal for the future of great-power politics in the region. If the United States simply abandons Taiwan to Beijing, then Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia and other U.S. allies in the Pacific will begin to doubt the strength of Washington’s commitments. That could encourage those states to move closer to China and thus allow the emergence of a Greater China of truly hemispheric proportions. So can the United States work to preserve stability in Asia, protect its allies there, and limit the emergence of a Greater China while avoiding a conflict with Beijing? Strengthening the U.S. air and sea presence in Oceania would be a compromise approach between resisting a Greater China at all cost and assenting to a future in which the Chinese Navy policed the first island chain. This approach would ensure that China paid a steep price for any military aggression against Taiwan. 北京还准备不仅仅在军事上包围台湾，还包括经济上和社会上。这个如何发生，将对该地区的大国政治的未来十分关键。如果美国轻易放弃台湾给北京，然后日本，韩国，菲律宾，澳大利亚和其他美国在太平洋地区的盟友则会开始怀疑华盛顿的承诺的力量。这可能鼓励这些国家向中国靠拢，从而使一个真正占半个地球大的“大中华”的出现。 那么美国可以维护亚洲的稳定，保护它在那里的盟友，限制“大中国”出现，同时避免与北京冲突吗？ 美国加强在大洋洲的空中和海上力量的存在将是一个折衷的办法，介于不惜一切代价抵抗“大中华”和同意将来中国海军统治第一岛链之间。这种方法将使中国的任何对台湾的军事侵略支付昂贵的代价。
Still, the very fact of China’s rising economic and military power will exACerbate U.S.-Chinese tensions in the years ahead. To paraphrase the political scientist John Mearsheimer, the United States, the hegemon of the Western Hemisphere, will try to prevent China from becoming the hegemon of much of the Eastern Hemisphere. This could be the signal drama of the age. 不过，对中国与日俱增的经济和军事实力这一事实将在未来几年加剧美中紧张关系。套用政治学家米尔斯海默的话：美国，西半球的霸权，会尽量避免中国成为东半球的霸主。这可能是这个时代的一个大的悲剧。
Robert D. Kaplan is a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and a correspondent for The Atlantic. A fuller version of this article appears in the May/June issue of Foreign Affairs. Tribune Media Services 罗伯特D ·卡普兰，新美国安全中心的高级研究员， The Atlantic的记者。关于这篇文章的一个更全面的版本出现在5月/ 6月版的外交事务上。 | 
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发表于 2010-4-20 23:03
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