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【中文标题】韩朝局势紧张：中国的责任 【英文标题】Korean tensions: China's responsibility 【来源媒体】卫报 【来源网址】http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/26/south-north-korea-china-editorial 【原文库连接】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=244237&rpid=3533973&ordertype=0&page=1#pid3533973 【译 者】尘音六戒 【翻译方式】人工 【声 明】本文供Anti-CNN/ACCN使用，未经译者或AC同意，谢绝转载；谢谢合作。 【译 文】
Relations between the two Koreas are at their worst for decades. The North says it has abrogated its non-aggression agreement with the South, trade links have been cut, shipping lanes closed, and the armed forces of both sides are on alert. The United States and South Korea are to conduct joint exercises, the traditional signal of readiness to act together in the event of real hostilities. Since a South Korean warship sank in March, almost certainly after being hit by a North Korean torpedo, the North has not offered a convincing denial of responsibility, nor an explanation, nor an apology. Now comes this tirade of threats and accusations. 朝鲜和韩国的关系目前正处于数十年来最糟糕的状况。朝鲜表示，已经废止与韩国的互不侵犯协议，并已切断贸易联系，关闭航道，而双方的军队都已进入戒备状态。美国和韩国进行了联合军事演习，这是一种传统的信号，表示双方已经准备好在真正的武装对抗中共同采取行动。自从三月份韩国的一艘军舰沉没以来——该起沉没几乎可以确定是由于朝鲜的鱼雷所造成，朝鲜并未提出令人信服的否认声明，也没有解释或者道歉。这就导致了目前对其长篇大论的威胁和指责。
If the incident was the result of an act of insubordination by a junior or a senior officer, or group of officers, that might have been privately conveyed to South Korea, but no such message has been passed on. Yet the idea that the Northern leadership ordered the attack is hard to accept, since the regime's decisions have always in the past had an element of rationality. In this case, nobody can discern what North Korean purpose the attack could possibly serve. While we do not understand the origins of this sudden deterioration, the consequence is clearer. Outside powers must restrain the parties, and, in particular, China must restrain North Korea, since it is the only country that has any real leverage in Pyongyang. 如果该事件是源于某一个（或某一些）下级军官或高级官员不服从命令的行为，这个消息很可能已经在私底下传达给韩国了，但事实上并没有。然而，朝鲜领导人下达了攻击命令这一想法是很难被接受的，因为该政权以往的决定总是包含着理性的因素。在这种情况下，没人能够判断出朝鲜此次袭击所需要达成的目的。虽然我们无法理解这次陡然变化的根源，但其造成的后果已经十分清晰。外部力量必须抑制各方，特别是中国必须抑制住朝鲜，因为中国是唯一一个对平壤有真正影响力的国家。
While Hillary Clinton got no public commitment of that kind during her talks in Beijing, it seems likely the Chinese will indeed apply some pressure. But Sino-American co-operation is not full-hearted, since the two countries differ so profoundly on the future of the Korean peninsula. Kim Jong-il is ageing and ailing. Change, possibly of the terminal kind, cannot be that far away. There is no international plan for dealing with the collapse of the regime, should that take place, and, equally, there is no consensus on how to cope should it survive in more or less its present form. China may well think its interests are best served by the continued division of the peninsula, while the US, Japan and other American allies would want a reunification dominated by the more successful and prosperous South. China is believed to have made preparations for putting in troops, while there are no doubt also some American military plans to go with sketchy ideas about a UN-brokered transition and reunification, but there has been no co-ordination. 尽管希拉里·克林顿在同北京的商谈期间没有得到这方面的公开承诺，但看起来中国确实会施加一定的压力。中美合作并不完全是真心实意的，因为这两个国家对于朝鲜半岛的未来趋势有着深刻的分歧。金正日已经年老体衰，朝鲜离变革并不太远了，这种变革可能会走向另一个极端。对于这个政权的垮塌，国际上还没有出台相应的计划，而这是应该早就完成的。同样的，对于如何应对朝鲜是否应当或多或少以目前的形式存续，国际上也没有达成共识。中国可能认为朝鲜半岛继续分裂对其利益最有好处，而美国、日本以及美国的其他盟国却希望由更为成功和繁荣的韩国来主导朝鲜半岛的统一。外界相信，中国已经做好准备投入兵力，与此同时，美国也毫无疑问正按照联合国主导的过渡及重新统一的粗略方案制定其军事计划，不过双方一直没有协调。
This is a very feeble framework within which to contain one of the most volatile relationships on the planet. Beyond the immediate crisis, there is an urgent need to achieve a greater degree of international agreement on how to deal with dramatic and unsettling events that may be just around the corner. 这个非常微弱的框架内包含着地球上最不稳定的关系之一。除了眼前的危机，目前迫切需要的是实现一个更大程度上的国际协议，用以解决随时可能发生的戏剧性的和令人不安的事件。 | 
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发表于 2010-6-1 15:53
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