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【原文标题】China's Cheonan Dilemma 【中文标题】中国的“天安号”困境 【登载媒体】外交政策 【来源地址】http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/06/07/chinas_cheonan_dilemma?page=full 【译 者】尘音六戒 【翻译方式】人工 【声 明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。 【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-247104-1-1.html 【译 文】
We take it for granted that North Korea is dependent on China, but key parts of China are dependent on North Korea We take it for granted that North Korea is dependent on China, but key parts of China are dependent on North Korea as well.
我们非常确定，朝鲜十分依赖中国，但是中国的关键部分同样也很依赖朝鲜。
The biggest loser from the ongoing tensions surrounding the sinking of a South Korean vessel may not be Seoul, or Pyongyang, but Beijing.
围绕着一艘韩国船只的沉没事件不断发展的紧张局势中，最大的输家不是首尔，也不是平壤，而是北京。
By refusing to condemn North Korea for its deliberate attack and sinking of a South Korean Navy corvette in March, China has lost hard-won credibility and reminded countries throughout Asia of the importance of the United States and its dominant presence in the Western Pacific.
因为拒绝谴责朝鲜在三月蓄意攻击并且击沉了一艘韩国护卫舰，中国已经失去其得来不易的信誉，并且使亚洲各国再一次意识到美国在西太平洋所占主导地位的重要性。
The recovery of the vessel, the Cheonan, and dredging the seabed revealed a smoking gun -- the remains of a North Korean torpedo. A South Korean report drawing upon the participation of experts from Australia, Britain, Sweden, and the United States and released in late May laid the blame squarely at the feet of North Korea, thus prompting the real aftershocks of the incident.
通过对该船只（“天安号”）的复原以及对海底的挖掘，调查组发现了确凿的证据——一枚朝鲜的鱼雷残骸。一份由澳大利亚、英国、瑞典和美国专家参与撰写的报告在五月由韩国公布，正式将责任归于朝鲜，从而引起该事件真正的余震。
In response to the report, Beijing chose not to take a clear stand and simply acknowledged the report, as well as North Korea's shrieks of denial. Rather than condemn North Korea's violent act, Beijing ignored the findings of the international investigators after reportedly having been invited to join the team but declining. In early May, before the report's release, both South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il had summits in China with President Hu Jintao to plead their respective cases, but neither came away satisfied.
作为对报告的回应，北京选择不明确表达立场，仅仅承认了该报告的存在，同时也承认了朝鲜的尖叫否认。据报道，北京最初拒绝了加入调查组的邀请，现在又无视由国际专家共同得出的调查结论，而不是谴责朝鲜的暴力行径。五月初，在该报告公布以前，韩国总统李明博和朝鲜领导人金正日都在与胡锦涛主席的政府首脑会议中要求中国支持自己的主张，但两人都没有得到满意的答复。
China's decision to protect North Korea reflects not only a careful policy calculation based on parochial self-interest, but also Beijing's desire to maintain the regional security balance that, as the country's leaders see it, is dependent on a strong China-North Korea relationship. Failure to support North Korea could lead to its collapse -- which could bring far worse consequences for China than most outside observers realize.
中国决定保护朝鲜，反映出的不仅是以狭隘的自身利益为基础的谨慎的政治算计，同时也反映出北京期望维护地区安全上的平衡，在中国领导人眼中，这取决于中朝之间强韧的联系。如果不支持朝鲜，则可能导致其崩溃——这很可能为中国带来比绝大多数外界观察家们能想到的更为严重的后果。
China fears the potential for chaos in North Korea for a number of reasons. For starters, the prospect of starving refugees and the remnants of the Korean People's Army so close to its own border is an obvious concern. The 1,400 kilometers of river that separate the two countries is narrow and shallow in many places, presenting an insignificant barrier to refugees and bandits seeking to cross. It is no coincidence that of all China's 14 borders with neighboring states, the country's People's Liberation Army is the lead authority only for those frontiers that border North Korea and Myanmar.
因为几个原因，中国担心朝鲜潜在的混乱。首先，一个明显的烦恼是饥饿的难民和朝鲜人民军的残余部队会靠近中国边境的可能性。两国之间有1400公里的界河，其很多部分都是既窄且浅的，这对于企图过河的难民和土匪来说，只是一个微不足道的屏障。与中国土壤相邻的有14个国家，而中国只在和朝鲜以及缅甸接壤的边境才以人民解放军作为领导机关，这并不是巧合。
Meanwhile, integration of North Korea's economy and China's northeastern provinces, particularly the provinces of Liaoning and Jilin, ensure that northeast China will pay a significant price should North Korea implode. Economic stability in these "rust belt" provinces, part of the struggling industrial region known informally in the West as Manchuria, is a key concern for Beijing. Having banked on trade with North Korea as a central part of their development plan (about half of the Chinese investors in North Korean joint ventures come from just these two provinces), these northern provinces might suffer significant economic impacts from further instability in North Korea. Not only is all politics local, but sometimes foreign policy is local too.
与此同时，朝鲜和中国东北三省（特别是辽宁和吉林两省）的经济已经一体化，朝鲜的崩溃肯定会使中国东北部付出严重的代价。这些“锈带”省份(rust belt指锈带，意思是衰败或萧条的工区。像德国是指鲁尔采煤区，美国则是指东北部的一些老工业区，中国则是指东三省老工业区)，作为正在苦苦挣扎的工业地区，其中一部分在西方国家被非正式的称为“满洲”，其经济稳定是北京主要关注的问题。与朝鲜的库存贸易是其发展计划（在朝鲜合资企业里大约有一半的中国投资人都是来自这两个省份）中核心的一部分，朝鲜进一步的不稳定，很可能会让这些东北省份遭受重大的经济损失。这不仅取决于本地的政策，有时候外国的政策也应当本地化。
We take it for granted that North Korea is dependent on China, but key parts of China depend on North Korea as well. Regional authorities in Jilin have invested billions in infrastructure to create an economic corridor from the Chinese city of Changchun, running across the border, and ultimately linking to China's lease on a pier at North Korea's port of Rajin. Jilin's plans have been blessed at the highest levels in Beijing. Should North Korea fail, the catastrophe would hit Beijing in the heart -- and the northeast in the wallet.
我们理所当然的认为，朝鲜是依赖于中国的，但是中国的关键部分同样也依赖于朝鲜。吉林省地方政府投资数十亿美元用于建立一条经济走廊，从中国长春市，越过边境，最终连接到朝鲜罗津港口上中国租用的一个码头。吉林的计划已经得到北京最高层的同意和鼓励。如果朝鲜崩溃，灾难将击碎北京的心——还有东北的钱包。
Another motivating factor for Beijing is the notion held by many Chinese leaders that their relationship with North Korea maintains a fragile balance in Asia, pitting two erstwhile communist countries against the United States and its allies. Failing to support North Korea, in the minds of some Chinese strategists, even after such an egregious provocation as the Cheonan attack, might ultimately lead to the demise of the People's Republic of China.
北京这样做的另外一个动机因素是中国许多领导人都持有的一个观点，即中国与朝鲜的关系，以及两个昔日的共产主义国家同美国及其盟国的对抗，使亚洲保持着微妙的平衡。在一些中国战略家的头脑里，即便是在“天安号”袭击这样令人震惊的挑衅行为过后，不继续支持朝鲜的话仍然可能最终导致中华人民共和国的灭亡。
China's unwillingness to allow North Korea to collapse under the weight of its own political and economic mismanagement reflects all these concerns. While China appears willing to pay the cost of at least maintaining the regime, neither China nor South Korea is willing to pay the price of rebuilding a failed state, resulting in an uneasy status quo.
中国不允许朝鲜因为其自身的政治和经济管理不善而崩溃，都反映在这些担心里。尽管中国看起来愿意为维持该政权而付出代价，但不论是中国还是韩国，都不愿意付出代价去重建一个崩溃的国家，这也造成了目前令人不安的现状。
Not surprisingly, China's unwillingness to punish North Korea for its action or deter the regime from taking aggressive action in the first place has laid bare the limits of Chinese influence in the region and has been met with frustration in many parts of Asia.
中国不愿意惩罚朝鲜的行为或者在第一时间阻止其采取激烈的行动，毫不意外的暴露出中国在该地区影响力的局限性，并已在亚洲的许多地区遭遇挫折。
China's handling of the incident has already caused political shock waves in Japan. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's resignation and the sudden resolution of the status of the Futenma Air Station on Okinawa have injected tremendous uncertainty in Japanese politics that will undoubtedly affect the Diet's upper-house elections in July. China's response has only guaranteed a large U.S. military presence in Japan for the foreseeable future.
中国对于这个事件的处理已经对日本政治造成冲击。鸠山由纪夫首相的辞职以及对冲绳普天间航空基地现状的突然决议，给日本政坛注入了巨大的不确定性，无疑会影响到七月的国会参议员选举。中国的反应只能保证，在可预见的将来在日本有大规模的美国军事力量存在。
Although the Cheonan incident was traumatic for the South Korean people, President Lee has handled it deftly with a cautious, transparent, and measured response that appears to have prevented an escalation of tensions. However, the Cheonan tragedy will undoubtedly shape South Korean politics and unification policy. The North Korean torpedo is an exclamation point on the demise of the "Sunshine Policy" -- South Korea's much-criticized approach to economic engagement with the North. Any potential that China might have held in South Korean eyes to act as an intermediary or honest broker between North and South has likely evaporated as well.
尽管“天安号”事件给韩国人带来创伤，但李总统在处理该事件时巧妙地运用了谨慎、透明、并且仔细斟酌的回应，这似乎已经遏制住了紧张局势的升级。然而，“天安号”的悲剧无疑会对韩国的政治和统一政策有巨大的影响。朝鲜的那枚鱼雷是“阳光政策”终止的惊叹号。“阳光政策”是韩国试图加强与朝鲜经济联系的备受争议的尝试。在韩国眼里，中国作为南北朝鲜之间调解人或者诚实的中间人的潜在可能性，也似乎都消失了。
China's strategy to woo neighbors throughout Asia with promises of economic integration and repeately asserting its peaceful intentions has suffered a significant setback, even as China's decision to "postpone" U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates's visit to Beijing reflects China's unease with the current regional security situation.
中国以经济一体化的承诺来吸引所有亚洲邻国并且重复声称其维护和平意图的战略已遭受了重大挫折，而中国决定“推迟”美国国防部长罗伯特·盖茨访问北京，也反映出中国对当前的地区安全形势感到不安。
In the coming weeks and months, it will only become more unmistakable how the sinking of the Cheonan has roiled the region.
在未来的几周和几个月里，“天安号”的沉没将如何波及该地区，会变得越来越明确无误。
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发表于 2010-6-17 14:36
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