【2010.7.25 金融时报】研究：中国将减少对进口天然气的依赖（转载）

rhapsody

【来源】http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001033744
【译文】英国《金融时报》 卡萝拉•霍约斯 伦敦报道

一项最新研究显示，随着中国积极开发自身庞大的天然气储量，大幅削减天然气进口要求，未来10年期间，把中国当作最大需求来源的国际天然气公司必将损失数十亿美元的销售收入。

因此，这些公司向中国出口其日益增长的新增天然气产量的时间已非常有限。

行业咨询公司Wood Mackenzie得出结论认为，2020年以后，中国新增的液化天然气(LNG)需求量将只有未来10年的一半，而且自2020年以后，中国将不再需要增加通过管道输送的天然气。

报告称：“2020年以后，我们预期会看到大量本土的非常规天然气进入市场，足以满足中国大多数新增的需求。”

预计到2030年，中国煤制气、煤层气、尤其是页岩气每日的供应量将可超过120亿立方英尺，从2020年开始，中国对船运液化天然气的新增需求将缩减到每年800万吨，而未来10年中国的这一需求为每年1600万吨。

对于希望扩张自身液化天然气业务的国际油气公司而言，例如英国天然气集团(BG)、荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)、英国石油(BP)、埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)和雪佛龙(Chevron)等，中国页岩气的异军突起将令它们的处境变得尤为艰难。中国还拥有大量常规天然气资源。自2005年以来，随着美国由于自身巨大的页岩气储量而对进口关闭了大门，而欧洲的天然气使用量开始停滞，中国已成为天然气公司最为重要的市场。

Wood Mackenzie表示：“液化天然气的卖家明显需要在未来两三年与中国买家完成交易，否则中国可能会从其项目的潜在基石买家名单上消失。”该咨询公司的分析师弗兰克•哈里斯(Frank Harris)补充表示：“对于国际天然气生产商而言，这是一个持续的噩梦。”

Wood Mackenzie相信，中国政府和中国石油(PetroChina)在开发非常规天然气方面的强大领导力，将意味着中国将超越欧洲，成为全球第二。目前，那些希望通过复制在美国的成功、进入国际页岩天然气市场的能源公司，大多都将重点放在欧洲。

不过Wood Mackenzie指出，对于国际油气公司而言，特别是在页岩气领域拥有雄厚知识的公司，也存在有利的一面。中国非常规天然气生产的增长，“在发展初期需要合作伙伴和技术，这就为符合条件的外国公司创造了机会”。中国石油已经找到了几家外国合作伙伴，特别是壳牌。

中国政府希望到2015年将天然气使用在能源消耗中所占的比例提高至8%。

译者/红云

【原文】http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7acd8e ... 8-00144feab49a.html

China gas growth to hit western groups

By Carola Hoyos in London

Published: July 25 2010 21:04 | Last updated: July 25 2010 21:04

International energy groups are set to miss out on billions of dollars of future sales during the next decade as China, their most voracious customer, aggressively develops its own large gas reserves and drastically cuts its imported gas requirements, a new study shows.

As a result they have a limited window to export their growing new volumes of gas to China.

Industry consultant Wood Mackenzie says China will need only half as much more liquefied natural gas from 2020 onwards than it will require in the next decade and it will need no additional gas transported by pipeline after 2020. “Beyond 2020 we expect to see significant volumes of indigenous unconventional gas entering the market and meeting much of China’s incremental demand,” the report states.

Chinese coal gasification, coal bed methane and particularly shale gas are expected to supply more than 12bn cu ft per day by 2030, cutting the country’s need for new tanker-delivered LNG to 8m tonnes a year from 2020, against 16m annually during the next decade.

For international oil and gas companies looking to grow their LNG business, the emergence of Chinese shale gas will be particularly difficult. China also has large conventional gas resources. Since 2005 the country has become gas companies’ most important market as the US has closed its doors to imports because of its own giant shale reserves, and Europe’s gas use has begun to stagnate.

“There is a clear imperative for LNG sellers to conclude deals with Chinese buyers in the next two to three years, or risk seeing China disappear as a potential foundation buyer for their projects,” Wood Mackenzie says.

“It’s a continued nightmare for international gas players,” says Frank Harris, analyst at the consultants.

Wood Mackenzie says Beijing and PetroChina’s strong leadership in developing unconventional gas will mean China overtakes Europe as the world’s number two.

Most energy companies wanting to enter the international shale gas industry by repeating the success of the boom in the US, are focusing on Europe. There is an upside for international oil and gas companies, especially those with strong knowledge in shale gas, Wood Mackenzie says.

China’s unconventional gas production growth “will require partnerships and technology in the initial phase of development, creating a window of opportunity for qualified foreign players”. PetroChina has already concluded several of these, most notably with Shell.

The Chinese government aims to boost natural gas use to 8 per cent of energy consumption by 2015.

Free_Corsica

天然气是个好东东

ykfo2

不知道这些天然气含不含有氦气

superloong

就算中国天然气再多，也应该优先用国外的吧。总比买美国国债好。
有些东西不是简单用钱可以计算的。