【中文标题】中国和台湾 － 有情相连？
【原文标题】China and Taiwan - The ties that bind?
【登载媒体】经济学家
【原文链接】http://www.economist.com/node/16485487?story_id=16485487
台湾在担心，中国在武装威胁失败之后，将采取经济互赖的策略。
6月26日，数万名示威者聚集在台湾国民党总统马英九在台北的办公室外面，高呼反对与中国统一的口号。他们抗议的目标是“海峡两岸经济合作框架协议”（ECFA），这是自从1949年共产党在内战中把国民党赶到台湾之后，海峡两岸最重要的协议之一。一个牌子上画着医生打扮的马先生在亲吻中国主席胡锦涛的脸颊，下面的字斥责道：“不要和敌人亲热！”
主要反对党民进党宣称有10万人参加了示威活动，警方估计只有32000人。民进党公开指责这份协议会威胁到台湾的就业状况。这个倾向台独的党派还抱怨，更糟糕的是这份协议让台湾向最终合并入中国迈出了一步。
这些担忧都有些过于危言耸听了。但是台湾的确已经进入了一个漫长的政治混乱时期，有关贸易协议的细微争论在此期间成为了一个牺牲品。11月，台湾5个主要大城市将举行市长选举，民进党期望对2012年议会和总统选举的精心筹备能让其党派势力得到扩充。
台湾政府声称，6月29日在重庆国民党内战时期总部原址签订的ECFA将阻止台湾经济的边缘化趋势。威慑于中国的压力，台湾在近期被排除出一系列自由贸易协定。政府因此而焦虑不堪，尤其是中国和东南亚十国联盟之间的自由贸易协定在今年开始生效，更让政府坐立不安。
台湾在与中国的贸易间一直在享受巨额的顺差（见图表）。中国总理温家宝承诺，台湾在ECFA中会比中国“有更多的收益”。实际上，在未来两年的时间里，中国将会降低539类进口商品的关税，金额为每年138亿美元，还会开放包括银行业在内的11类市场。为了安抚一个重要的政治团体的情绪，协议中包括了18类农产品和渔业产品，这些产品在台湾并未开放贸易。总体来看，台湾只向中国进口的267类商品征税，年税额29亿美元。
马先生希望这一系列贸易条款可以显示其主张的实用主义与中国打交道所获取的收益。马与其前任民进党的陈水扁不同（陈目前因腐败罪名在狱中服刑），他并未鼓吹台湾独立的论调，而是让国民党与中国达成协议，允许飞机定期直航两岸，接纳中国游客进入台湾。
民进党认为这些贸易条款是一个特洛伊木马。对于政府的净增加26万就业岗位的说法，民进党领袖蔡英文拒绝接受。在鲜有的一次与马先生的电视辩论中，她说台湾会有500万就业岗位会受此影响。民进党发言人谢怀惠说，她的党派担心ECFA会“强化两岸的相互依赖性”。中国将以此为垫脚石向政治统一迈进。
民进党的论点在6月初得到了一些佐证。当时，在马先生再三提出希望ECFA或许可以鼓励更多国家与台湾签订自由贸易协议时，一位中国发言人给出了似乎是负面的回应。这些国家为了避免激怒中国，到目前为止都没有与台湾发生过正式的贸易接触。中国发言人的言论虽然没有明确排除自由贸易协议的可能性，但是给马先生的政府惹来了少见的责难声。
政府委员会拒绝了要求为ECFA举行公民投票的提议，这一行为也引发了反对的声音。中国不愿看到台湾出现任何公民投票的迹象，它在担心或许某次投票会用来正式宣布独立，或者拒绝统一。马先生拒绝为ECFA进行投票，但是民进党认为委员会的决定反映出中国对国民党的压力。
民进党虽然可以召集数千人上街，但是他们在选民中的支持率依然在30％到40％间挣扎，他们缺少一个有实力的竞争者与马先生在2012年的选举中对抗。很多分析人士认为民进党台北市长候选人苏贞昌要比蔡女士实力更高。苏先生不大可能在国民党大本营台北获胜，但是一次体面的失败或许可以提升他当选总统的希望。
对民进党来说，找到对付中国的有效策略不是件容易的事。如果民进党所强调的一些风险最终没有发生，那么选民就会对他们抓住ECFA问题不撒手表示不屑的态度。在2009年GDP缩水了2％之后，政府预测今年的GDP增长会超过6％。出口到中国的商品占台湾GDP总量的30％，其恢复GDP强势增长的作用功不可没。
中国支持马先生的意图再明显不过了，当美国在今年1月份批准对台的64亿美元军售时，中国刻意规避了对台湾的直接批评。但是为了努力表达善意，中国没有缩减对台海岸所部署的军事力量，而是继续修建导弹工事。台北的一名国防部官员指着一张地图，手臂横扫过台湾岛东边的一大片海域。从一年前开始，中国海军不断在这一地区扩大军事演习的范围。他说，中国依然是“眼前活生生的威胁”。对中国市场的觊觎让国民党选举的前景一片大好，但是对中国长远意图的恐惧会有利于民进党的发展。
原文：
CHANTING opposition to unification with China, tens of thousands of protesters massed on June 26th outside the office in Taipei of Taiwan’s president, Ma Ying-jeou of the Nationalist party, or Kuomintang (KMT). Their target was the Economic Co-operation Framework Agreement (ECFA), one of the most significant agreements between China and Taiwan since 1949, when the Communists routed the KMT in the civil war. One placard, with a doctored image of Mr Ma kissing the cheek of China’s president, Hu Jintao, scolded: “Don’t embrace the enemy.”
The main opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) said 100,000 demonstrators took part; the police estimated just 32,000. The DPP denounces the agreement as a threat to jobs on Taiwan. Worse, the independence-leaning party complains, it could be a step on the way to Taiwan’s eventual incorporation into China.
Both warnings are overblown. But Taiwan is entering a lengthy season of frantic politics in which a nuanced debate about trade will be an early casualty. In November mayoral elections will be held in Taiwan’s five key municipalities. The DPP is hoping for a boost as it prepares for parliamentary and presidential polls in 2012.
Taiwan’s government says the ECFA, signed on June 29th in Chongqing, the KMT’s old civil-war headquarters, will prevent Taiwan’s economic marginalisation. Because of Chinese pressure, Taiwan has been excluded from a recent spate of free-trade agreements (FTAs). This has worried the government, especially since an FTA between China and the ten-member Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) came into effect this year.
.China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao, has promised that Taiwan, which enjoys a big trade surplus with China (see chart), will “benefit more” from the ECFA than the mainland. Indeed, over the next two years China will lower tariffs for 539 categories of imports, worth $13.8 billion a year, and open 11 service categories, including banking (see article). To appease an important lobby, the deal includes 18 farming and fishery categories, with no reciprocal liberalisation in Taiwan. Overall, Taiwan will lift tariffs for only 267 categories of imports from China, worth $2.9 billion.
Mr Ma hopes the pact will demonstrate the benefits of his pragmatism in dealings with China. Unlike his predecessor, the DPP’s Chen Shui-bian (now in jail for corruption), he has not trumpeted Taiwan’s separate identity. Rather, the KMT has reached agreements allowing scheduled flights across the strait and Chinese tourists to visit Taiwan.
The DPP portrays the pact as a Trojan horse. Its leader, Tsai Ing-wen, has rejected the government’s assertion that there will be a net employment gain of 260,000. In a rare televised debate with Mr Ma, she said 5m jobs in Taiwan would be adversely “affected” by the pact. A DPP spokeswoman, Hsieh Huai-hui, says her party fears the ECFA will “strengthen interdependence”. China, she says, will use it as a stepping stone toward political integration.
The DPP gained some ammunition in early June when a Chinese spokesman gave a seemingly negative response to Mr Ma’s oft-stated hope that the ECFA might encourage other countries to sign FTAs with Taiwan. They have hitherto held back so as not to upset China. The Chinese spokesman’s remarks, though not explicitly ruling out such FTAs, drew a rare rebuke from Mr Ma’s government.
A government committee’s rejection of proposals for a referendum on the ECFA has also galvanised opposition. China recoils at any hint of a plebiscite in Taiwan, fearing one might one day be used to justify a formal declaration of independence or to block reunification. Mr Ma has denied opposing an ECFA referendum, but the DPP suggests the committee’s decision reflected Chinese pressure on the KMT.
The DPP can still get thousands of people onto the streets, but it has struggled to expand its support beyond 30-40% of the electorate. It also lacks a convincing challenger to Mr Ma in the 2012 elections. Many analysts believe that Su Tseng-chang, its candidate in the Taipei mayoral election later this year, would do better than Ms Tsai. Mr Su is unlikely to win in Taipei, a KMT stronghold. But an honourable defeat might boost his presidential hopes.
Devising a strategy for dealing with China will be hard for the DPP. Harping on about the ECFA may not go down well with voters if the risks the DPP stresses do not materialise. The government predicts GDP will grow by more than 6% this year after contracting by nearly 2% in 2009. Merchandise exports to China, which account for almost 30% of Taiwan’s total, have been helping to power this recovery.
China’s backing for Mr Ma is clear. It studiously avoided any criticism of Taiwan itself when America approved $6.4 billion-worth of arms sales to the island in January. But for all its efforts to show goodwill, it has made no attempt to scale down its military deployments on the coast facing the island, where its missile build-up continues. A defence-ministry official in Taipei points to a map of the island and sweeps his arm around to its east to show where, in the past year or so, Chinese naval forces have begun to extend their war-gaming reach. China is still, he says, a “clear and present danger”. Greed for China’s market is good for the KMT’s electoral prospects; but fear of its long-term intentions can still boost the DPP.
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