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【原文标题】The rising power of the Chinese worker
【中文标题】中国劳工影响力与日俱增 【来源地址】http://www.economist.com/node/16693333 【译者】AlterEgo
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本文供Anti-CNN/ACCN使用，未经译者或AC同意，谢绝转载；谢谢合作
【译 文】
The rising power of the Chinese worker 中国劳工影响力与日俱增 In China’s factories, pay and protest are on the rise. That is good for China, and for the world economy 中国工厂里，劳工们的薪酬水平和罢工次数都在日益提高。这对中国以及世界经济都有裨益。 CHEAP labour has built China’s economic miracle. Its manufacturing workers toil for a small fraction of the cost of their American or German competitors. At the bottom of the heap, a“floating population” of about 130m migrants work in China’s boomtowns, taking home 1,348 yuan a month on average last year. That is a mere $197, little more than one-twentieth of the average monthly wage in America. But it is 17% more than the year before. As China’s economy has bounced back, wages have followed suit. On the coasts, where its exporting factories are clustered, bosses are short of workers, and workers short of patience. A spate of strikes has thrown a spanner into the workshop of the world.
廉价劳动力造就了中国经济的奇迹。这些制造业工人通过辛勤劳作所赚取的薪酬只相当于美国和德国劳工所得薪酬的一小部分。在中国的发达城市中约有1.3亿的“流动人口”在这里劳作，处于社会底层的这群人，在2009年的人均月收入是1348元人民币。这仅仅相当于197美元，只比美国劳工人均月收入的二十分之一多那么一点点。但这样的收入已经比去年上涨了17%。随着中国经济的回升向好，劳工的薪酬水平也有所提高。在出口工厂密集的沿海一带，老板缺工人，而工人则缺耐性。接二连三的罢工给这座世界工厂开来了不小的麻烦。 The hands of China’s workers have been strengthened by a new labour law, introduced in 2008,and by the more fundamental laws of demand and supply (see article). Workers are becoming harder to find and to keep. The country’s villages still contain perhaps 70m potential migrants. Other rural folk might be willing to work closer to home in the growing number of factories moving inland. But the supply of strong backs and nimble fingers is not infinite, even in China.The number of 15- to 29-year-olds will fall sharply from next year. And although their wages are increasing, their aspirations are rising even faster. They seem less willing to “eat bitterness”, as the Chinese put it, without complaint.
2008年颁布的新劳动法以及更为根本的供求法则增加了中国劳工手中的砝码。找到工人并留住他们正变得越来越困难。而中国的农村仍然储备着约七千万的潜在农民工。随着更多的工厂迁往内陆，其他的农村人口更愿意在离家更近的地方就业工作。但是即使在中国，这些气力十足，手指灵巧的劳工供给也是有限的。从明年开始，年龄在15到29岁区间的人口将急剧下降。虽然这部分人的薪酬在增长，但增长更快的是他们对自身未来的期许。就像中国人自己说的那样，这群人似乎不愿意只是“埋头苦干”了。 Why the goons were called off 为什么要打手们住手 In truth, Chinese workers were never as docile as the popular caricature suggested. But the recent strikes have been unusual in their frequency (Guangdong province on China’s south coast suffered at least 36 strikes in the space of 48 days), their longevity and their targets: foreign multinationals.
实际上中国劳工并不像漫画上描述的那样容易管理。不过，与以往罢工不同的是最近的一系列罢工发生频率更高（中国南部沿岸省份广东在48天的时间里爆发了36次罢工），持续时间更长，罢工地点特殊：外资跨国企业。 China’s ruling Communist Party has swiftly quashed previous bouts of labour unrest. This one drew a more relaxed reaction. Goons from the government-controlled trade union roughed up some Honda strikers, but they were quickly called off. The strikes were widely, if briefly, covered in the state-supervised press. And the ringleaders have not so far heard any midnight knocks at the door.
以前发生劳工骚乱事件时中国共产党总是迅速将其平息。而这次执政党的反应却相当温和。政府操控的工会派出打手殴打了一些本田罢工人员，不过很快被叫停了。政府监管的媒体报道这些罢工是范围广泛的但却是短期的。而到目前为止，还没听说有罢工组织者被带走质问。 This suggests three things. First, China is reluctant to get heavy-handed with workers in big brand firms that attract global media attention. But, second, China is becoming more relaxed about spooking foreign investors. Indeed, if workers are upset, better that they blame foreign bosses than local ones. In the wake of the financial crisis, the party has concluded, correctly, that foreign investors need China more than it needs them. Third, and most important, the government may believe that the new bolshiness of its workers is in keeping with its professed aim of “rebalancing” the economy. And it would be right. China’s economy relies too much on investment and too little on consumer spending. That is mostly because workers get such a small slice of the national cake: 53% in 2007, down from 61% in 1990 (and compared with about two thirds in America). Letting wages rise at the expense of profits would allow workers to enjoy more of the fruits of their labour.
这说明了三个问题。第一，中国不想对这些罢工人员下狠手，因为罢工的这些知名企业会引来国际媒体的关注。第二，中国越来越觉得吓唬吓唬这些外国投资者也没什么。因为金融危机之后，执政党正确地得出了一个结论：外国投资者对中国的依赖程度要大于中国对其的依赖程度。因此，如果劳工被惹恼了，归咎于这些外国投资者要好于指责国内投资者。第三，也是最重要的一点，中国政府认为这些罢工行为与自己宣称的“调整经济结构”的目标是相符合的。这没错。中国经济太过于依赖投资而非消费。这主要是因为工人在国民经济中分羹太少：2007年是53%，1990年则是61%（美国则是三分之二）。削减利润来提高工资可以让工人们更多的品尝到自己劳动的果实。 Higher Chinese wages would also be good for the West. This may seem odd, given how much the rich world has come to rely on cheap Chinese labour: by one estimate, trade with China has added $1,000 a year to the pockets of every American household, thanks to cheaper goods in the country’s stores, cheaper inputs for its businesses and stiffer competition in its markets. Just as expanding the global labour force by a quarter through the addition of cheap Chinese workers helped to keep prices down in the West, so higher Chinese wages might start to export inflation. Furthermore, from the point of view of the global economy, labour is a resource, like land or oil. It would not normally benefit from the dwindling of China’s reserves of labour any more than from the drying up of Saudi wells.
中国劳工薪酬的提高对西方国家也有好处。这一点听上去很奇怪，因为发达国家对中国的廉价劳动力是那么地依赖：据估计，同中国的贸易使得每个美国家庭一年有1000美元的收益进账，这得益于商店里商品的廉价，商业投入成本的低廉和市场竞争的充分。中国廉价劳动力的加入使得世界劳动力市场总量增加了四分之一，这一点保证了西方国家商品的低廉价格。因此相类似的，中国劳工薪酬水平的提高就可能会导致中国输出通货膨胀。进一步从世界经济的角度来看，如同土地和石油一样，劳动力也是一种资源。正如沙特日益干涸的油井产生的效果一样，中国劳动力的萎缩使得大家不会像以前那样捞取更多好处了。 Tomorrow’s global consumers 未来的全球消费者 But in the wake of the financial crisis, things are different. Deflation is now a bigger threat than inflation. And with 47m workers unemployed in the OECD alone, labour is not holding back the global economy. What the world lacks is willing customers, not willing workers. Higher Chinese wages will have a similar effect to the stronger exchange rate that America has been calling for,shrinking China’s trade surplus and boosting its spending. This will help foreign companies and the workers they have idled. A 20% rise in Chinese consumption might well lead to an extra $25billion of American exports. That could create over 200,000 American jobs.
不过在金融危机之后事情就有变化了。与通货膨胀相比，通货紧缩在现阶段更具威胁性。然而经济合作与发展组织的成员国中有四千七百万的失业劳工，因此劳动力不再是拖累经济的因素。目前世界上缺的是热情的消费者，而不是执着的劳工。与美国呼吁的提高人民币汇率相比，中国薪酬水平提高会带来相似的效果：缩减中国的贸易顺差并提振人民的消费。这将给关停的工厂和闲散的工人带来帮助。中国消费提高20%很可能会使美国的出口增加250亿美元。由此将带来二十万的就业岗位。 Eventually, this extra spending will help the world economy return to full employment. At that point, foreign companies and consumers may miss China’s cheap coastal workers, who kept profits high and prices low. But there will still be cheap labour to be found inland and in places like India. And Chinese wages were anyway only half the story. The other half was Chinese productivity. Chinese labour costs tripled in the decade after 1995, but output per worker quintupled.
最终这些额外的消费能力会使得全世界重返充分就业的状态。到那个时候，外国公司和消费者就会开始怀念中国沿海的廉价劳动力了，因为是他们曾经带来了高额的利润和低廉的价格。不过在中国内陆地区和印度仍然存在有廉价劳力。然而除了中国劳工的薪酬问题，还有其生产效率问题。自1995年以来的十年里中国劳工价格上升了三倍，但人均产出却上升了五倍。 To repeat that feat, as it runs dry of crude labour, China will have to increase its supply of skilled workers. That will require a stable workforce, which stays with its employers long enough to be worth investing in. For that the government will need to relax further its system of internal passports, or hukou, which prevent migrant workers from settling formally in the city without losing their family plot back home. When labour was abundant, it suited the government to have a floating population that made few demands on urban authorities and drifted back to the family farm whenever hardship beckoned. But to maintain fast growth as the labour market tightens,China’s floating population will have to drop anchor.
随着低素质劳工的枯竭，为了再获同样的辉煌，中国必须增加高素质劳工的供应。这就需要一批稳定的劳动力，他们要能追随其雇主足够长的时间,使得在其身上的技术投资能够产生效益。因此政府就需要进一步松绑其户籍制度，以此来打破对农民工在城市安家落户的限制，不至于使他们因此而失掉农村家乡的那片土地。当劳动力充足的时候，国家就可以有一定量的流动人口，此时他们不会对城市管理者提出什么诉求，并且当日子过不下去的时候就会返回农村老家。但是劳动力萎缩的时候，为了保持经济高速增长，中国的流动人口就必须在城市安家落户。 As the late Joan Robinson, a Cambridge economist, once wrote, “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all”. Her quip, written in1962, was inspired by underemployment in South-East Asia. Since then, capital has busily “exploited” workers in that region and its giant northern neighbour, much to their benefit. Now it is time for capital to invest in them.
就像已故剑桥大学经济学家Joan Robinson写的那样，“与不被雇佣的痛苦相比，被资本家雇佣的痛苦根本就不值一提”。面对东南亚的失业状况她有感而发，于1962年写下了这则妙语。从那以后，资本就开始忙着雇佣东南亚及其北部广大地区的劳动力，并因此大为获益。而现在则是对这些劳动力进行技术投资的时候了。 | 
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发表于 2010-8-6 18:11
