本帖最后由 千年明月 于 2010-8-6 20:44 编辑
【中文标题】中国连接亚洲和拉丁美洲的新丝绸之路 【英文标题】New Silk Road by China BindsAsia to Latin America 【来源地址】http://www.businessweek.com/news ... -latin-america.html
【译者】jixiliying
【翻译方式】人工 【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-257945-1-1.html
Aug. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The high-speed rail link ChinaRailway Construction Corp. is building in Saudi Arabia doesn’t just connect the holy cities of Mecca and Medina.It shows how Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America are holding the world economy together.
8月2号（彭博社）－中国铁建公司在沙特阿拉伯修建的高速铁路不仅仅连接麦加和麦地那圣地，它还展示了亚洲，中东，非洲和拉丁美洲是如何将世界经济联系在一起的。
Ties between emerging markets form what economists at HSBC Holdings Plc andRoyal Bank of Scotland Group Plc call the “new Silk Road” -- a $2.8-trillionversion of the Asian-focused network of trade routes along which commerceprospered starting in about the second century.
被汇丰控股有限公司和苏格兰皇家银行的经济学家称作的“新丝绸之路”，是指新兴国家之间的联系―――一个贸易额达2.8万亿美元，始于公元二世纪的以亚洲为中心的繁荣商业贸易之路的新版本。
Today’s world-spanning web is insulating marketssuch as Chinafrom the drag of weak recoveries in the advanced world and providing globalgrowth with a new power source. Stephen King, HSBC’s chief economist, predictsthe relationships will strengthen and lists them as a reason for his forecastthat emerging markets will grow about three times faster than rich nations thisyear and next on average.
当今的世界网络使中国这样的市场不受发达国家经济复苏疲软的影响，而为全球经济增长提供新的力量源泉。史蒂芬·金，
汇丰控股的首席经济学家，预测这种联系将会增强。基于此，他预测新兴国家今年和明年的平均增长会比发达国家高3倍。
“The potential for inter-emerging market trade isginormous,” said Jim O’Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London, who coined the term BRIC in 2001 to describe therising role of Brazil, Russia, Indiaand China.“That makes it quite difficult to see how you get a sustained global recessionbecause of what’s going on in the west.”
“新兴市国家挨之间的贸易潜力是无穷的”，伦敦高盛公司的首席经济学家Jim O’Neill 如是说。他在2001年用Bric（金砖四国）这个词来形容崛起的巴西，俄罗斯，印度和中国。“这种无穷潜力使人很难想象，由于西方国家发生的事，会造成持久的全球经济衰退。”（译者注：西方国家的影响不足以造成全球经济的长期衰退）
Share of Trade
贸易份额
The BRIC economies hold a 13 percent share of world trade and have beenresponsible for about half of global growth since the start of the financialcrisis in 2007, according to O’Neill. He predicted the BRICs will grow about 9percent this year and next compared with 2.6 percent in advanced nations.
据O’Neill说，自2007年经济危机以来，金砖四国持有全球贸易13％的份额和一半的经济增长量。他预测今年和明年金砖四国的经济增长速度大约为9％，而发达国家为2.6％。
Investors are tuning in. Research by Kieran Curtis, who helps oversee $2billion at Aviva Investors in London, found growing trade between emergingmarkets helps explain why they now account for about 30 percent of global finalconsumption, about the same as the U.S. and up from 10 percent in 1990.
投资者正在涌入。根据伦敦英杰华投资公司20亿美元的管理人Kieran Curtis 的研究表明，新兴国家之间的贸易增长是他们目前占全球消费量30％的原因，几乎与美国相等。而1990年他们只占10％。
That should increase demand for the Chinese yuan if the government continues toloosen restrictions on settling trade transactions with its currency, he said.
他还表示，如果（中国）政府能继续放宽对人民币贸易交易的限制，对人民币的需求还会提高。
“Go to a market in Nairobiand you’ll see Chinese goods on sale,” Curtis said. “If emerging marketfundamentals continue to be superior, there is the potential for seriouscurrency appreciation against old-guard currencies.”
“只要去奈洛比的市场，你就会发现中国货。”Curtis 说，“如果新兴国家挨经济持续增长，相对原有货币，将会有巨大的货币升值空间。”
Currency Policy
货币政策
China’sgovernment signaled June 19 that it will allow a more flexible exchange rate.So far, it’s limited the yuan’s rise to less than 1 percent against the dollarafter allowing a 21 percent appreciation in the three years to July 2008.
中国政府6月9号发出信号说，将会允许更宽松的人民币汇率政策。在继2008年7月之后的三年内升值21％以后，人民币兑美元的汇率变化一直控制在1％以内。
Jerome Booth, who helps oversee $33 billion of emerging- market assets as headof research at Ashmore Investment Management Ltd. in London, said emerging markets areincreasingly starting to denominate trade contracts in currencies other thandollars as commerce between them rises.
伦敦的安石投资管理公司管理新兴国家三百三十亿美元资产的负责人Jerome Booth表示，随着新兴国家挨之间交易量的增加，他们逐渐开始采用美元以外的货币来主导交易。
Commodity prices that may have been dropped in the past when advanced nationsgrew less are now cushioned by trade between emerging markets, said DariuszSliwinski, head of emerging markets at Martin Currie Investment Management in Edinburgh.
现在新兴国家之间的贸易阻止了由于发达国家发展缓慢而造成的商品价格下跌，Dariusz Sliwinski 表示。他是爱丁堡的马丁居里投资管理有限公司新兴国家挨投资负责人。
“Commodity prices would have been much lower without the support, which is goodfor the likes of Russia and Brazil,”said Sliwinski, who helps manage about $15 billion.
管理着150亿美元的Sliwinski还说，“如果没有这种支撑，商品价格会更低，这对俄罗斯和巴西这样的国家来说有利。”
Royal Bank of Scotland ChiefChina Economist Ben Simpfendorfer in Hong Kongsays emerging Asian and Middle Eastern economies will account for 75 percent ofevery extra barrel of oil consumed or produced in the next decade, while coppershould gain because it’s a key input in infrastructure and nickel may benefitbecause of its use in steel.
苏格兰皇家银行香港分部首席中国经济师Ben Simpfendorfer表示，在未来10年，每桶油有75％是亚洲新兴国家消耗的，或是中东经济体生产的；而铜由于其在基础建设中的重要作用，产量将会提高，镍由于在钢中的应用（指合金）也会受益。
Impact on Commodities
对商品的影响
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index, tracking the net amountinvestors received from 24 raw materials, climbed 13 percent last year. Whilethe price of oil fell as low as $32.40 abarrel during the recession it has since rebounded, ending last week at $78.95 a barrel. The cost of nickel and coppermore than doubled over the same period.
标准普尔的高盛商品指数总回报指数跟踪了24种原材料的投资者净额，去年它攀升了13％。而油价从经济危机时跌到32.40 美元一桶，现在回弹，上周末达到78.95美元。镍和铜的价格比同期增加了一倍以上。
Chu Moon Sung,a fund manager at Shinhan BNP Paribas Asset Management Co. in Seoul, which manages $26 billion, saysinvestors will increase their holdings of emerging-market equities.
楚文成，新韩法国巴黎资产管理有限公司首尔的基金经理，管理着260亿美元基金。他表示投资者将会增持新兴国家的基金。
“The populations in emerging markets, especially inAsia, are large,” he said. “They are gettingmore educated and income levels are rising, which make these countries veryattractive for companies. Chinais a favorite for stock investors but we’re seeing more interest in Indian,Brazilian and Russian markets.”
他还说，“新兴国家的人口，尤其是亚洲，是巨大的。他们的受教育程度在提高，收入水平在增加，这使得这些国家对于本公司来说很具有吸引力。中国是股票投资者的最爱，但我们也看到人们对印度，巴西和俄罗斯市场的兴趣越来越大。”
Gains in Trade
贸易收获
The Geneva-based World Trade Organization estimates intra- emerging markettrade rose on average by 18 percent per year from 2000 to 2008, faster thancommerce between emerging and advanced nations. It totaled $2.8 trillion in2008, about half of emerging-market trade with all nations.
根据总部在日内瓦的世界贸易组织估计，从2000年到2008年，新兴国家之间的贸易额每年增加平均18个百分点，比发达国家的贸易增长迅速。在2008年的贸易总量2万8千亿美元中，大约有一半来自新兴国家与其他国家的交易。
That performance is especially welcome now given thesluggish recovery in the rich economies, said HSBC’s King, author of “LosingControl: The Emerging Threats to Western Prosperity” and a former U.K. Treasuryofficial.
在发达国家的缓慢经济回升中，这样的表现尤受欢迎。《失去控制：西方繁荣的新威胁》一书的作者，曾任英国财政部官员的汇丰银行的金（King, Stephen 史蒂芬·金）这样表示。
Chinese exports to the emerging world accounted for about 9.5 percent of grossdomestic product in 2008, compared with 2 percent in 1985, he calculated. India’s jumped to 7.3 percent from 1.5 percentand Brazil’salmost doubled to 6.3 percent.
他计算说，2008年中国往新兴国家的出口大约占其国内生产总值的9.5%，而1985年只有2％。印度从1.5%跳跃到了7.2%，巴西则增加了一倍到 6.3%。
Emerging-market economies will grow 6.9 percent this year and 6.2 percent in2011, King said, outpacing the 2.4 percent and 1.9 percent projected expansionsof developed economies.
金还说，今年新兴经济体将增长6.9%，2011年增长6.2%，超过发达国家2.4%和1.9%的计划增长率。
Providing Protection
提供保护
“There are now massive trade connections within the emerging markets andthey’re becoming increasingly important,” said King in a telephone interview. “It means in one sense the emerging world is protected fromthe worst ravages of the developed world.”
在一次电话采访中，金表示，“现在新兴国家之间有大量的贸易联系，而且这种联系变得越来越重要。”“从某种意义上说，这意味着新兴国家没有受到如发达国家的最严重破坏。”
Those ravages were born in the global recession of 2008-09 from which theadvanced world is proving slow to recover, even after policy makers cutinterest rates to record lows. That’s prompting businesses and investors toseek other sources of growth.
这种破坏产生于2008到2009年的全球经济危机。这场经济危机过后，发达国家被证明恢复缓慢。即使政策制定者消减了利率，它还是达到历史最低点。这使得商人和投资者寻求其他新的增长点。
Of the foreign direct investment flowing into south, east and southeast Asiaalone, China was a source of 13.3 percent in 2008, compared with the U.S.’s 7.9percent and up from 0.4 percent in 1991, according to a report last month fromthe Geneva-based United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
根据上个月在日内瓦联合国贸易与发展会议上发布的一份报告，在南亚，东亚和东南亚的外国直接投资这一项中，与美国的7.9%相比，中国在2008年占了13.3%,而1991年则为0.4%。
China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy, dominatesthe push into fellow emerging markets, passing the U.S. as the biggestexporter to the Middle East in 2008.
中国，作为世界发展最快的大经济体，主导推进新兴国家的伙伴关系。 2008年，她超越了美国成为出口到中东的最大出口国。
Huawei in India
华为在印度
Shenzen-basedHuawei Technologies Co., its biggest maker of phoneequipment, had orders of $1.7 billion from Indiain 2008 and said in January that it will invest $500 million in its researchcenter in Bangalore.
总部设在深圳的华为技术有限公司的最大手机设备制造商，2008年从印度拿到了17亿美元的订单。1月份她还表示她将投资5亿美元给位于班加罗尔的研究中心。
China Mobile Ltd. of Hong Kong, the world’s biggest phone carrier, is“interested in doing business in Africa,”where it can boost services in rural areas, Chairman Wang Jianzhou said in aJune 26 interview.
中国移动（香港），世界上最大的手机运营商，“对非洲的业务很感兴趣”。在6月26号的一次访谈中，王建宙主席如是说。在非洲，该公司可以推广边远地区的运营服务。
Elsewhere in Asia, a group led by Korea Electric Power Corp., South Korea’s largest utility, beat offcompetition from General Electric Co. and France’s Areva SA to win a $20 billionUAE nuclear contract. The Saudi Railways Organization last month awarded acontract to China South Locomotive and Rolling Stock Corp. to supply 10 cargolocomotives. The Mecca-Medina rail contract went to Beijing-based China Railwayas part of a Saudi- Chinese consortium.
在亚洲的其他地方，由韩国最大的经营巨头―――韩国电力领导的小组打败了通用电气和法国的阿海珐集团的竞争，赢得了200亿美元的阿联酋核电合同。上个月沙特铁路组织将一项购买10台干线机车的合同给了中国南车股份有限公司。麦加－麦地那铁路合同给了作为沙特中国联合体一部分的，总部在北京的中国铁道建设总公司。
Brazil in Africa
巴西在非洲
In Latin America, Brazil’sVale SA has been on an international spending spree, helped by boomingcommodities demand from Chinaand a currency that has doubled against the dollar since 2003. The companyestimates that its $1.3-billion coal mine in Mozambique will have a capacity of11 million tons per year three to four years after it enters production in thefirst half of 2011.
在拉丁美洲，借助于中国膨胀的消费需求和2003年来其货币兑美元增加一倍之力，巴西的淡水河谷（译者注：铁矿石三大巨头之一）正处于热销中。该公司预计，他们在莫桑比克价值13亿美元的煤矿在2011年上半年投产后的三到四年，每年将有1100万吨的产量。
Vale in 2009 acquired stakes in three copper projects, in Zambia, Africa’slargest producer of the metal, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. In Aprilthis year, the company agreed to pay $2.5 billion for iron ore deposits in Guinea,including assets the country confiscated from the Rio Tinto Group.
2009年淡水河谷已经在非洲的金属最大产地赞比亚和刚果民主共和国获得了3个铜矿项目。今年4月，他们同意支付25亿美元购买几内亚的铁矿，包括几内亚从力拓公司没收的一些资产。
“We saw the same phenomenon with American and European companies 50 to 100years ago as they went global,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategyat AMP Capital Investors, which manages about $95 billion in Sydney. “Emerging-market companies are nowbig enough and they have the choice of going to developed countries where theymay be more constrained or to the emerging world where the growth potentialis.”
“50到100年前，当美国与欧洲的公司走向全球的时候，我们也看到过同样的现象。”Shane Oliver 说道。他是（澳大利亚）安保资本投资公司的投资策略负责人，在悉尼管理着950亿美元资产。“新兴国家的公司现在足够大了，他们可以选择，是进入使他们感到倍受约束的发达国家，还是进入具有发展潜力的新兴世界。”
Competition Rises
竞争激烈
They are also jostling with each other. Brazil’s Empresa Brasileira deAeronautica SA, or Embraer, is braced for increased competition from newChinese and Russian rivals.
他们也互相竞争。巴西的航空工业公司受到了来自中国和俄罗斯新对手的不断挑战。
In December 2009, 32 percent of the backlog of orders for Embraer’smedium-range E-Jet airliners was from emerging markets, up from 1 percent in 2005.Over the same period the company’s backlog of orders from North America and Europe fell to 53 percent of the total, down from 91percent.
2009年12月，巴西航空中程E喷气客机32％的储备订单都是来自新兴国家，而2005年只有1％。同期来自北美和欧洲的储备订单减少到53％，2005年则为91％。
“We are selling less, on a proportional basis, to the U.S. and Western Europe, and we have a growth insales in Latin America, Asia andAsia-Pacific,” said Paulo Cesar, Embraer’s executive vice president-airlinemarket, in a telephone interview.
在一个电话采访中，巴西航空公司的航空市场部执行副总裁Paulo Cesar说，
“我们对美国和西欧的销售在减少，而对拉丁美洲，亚洲和亚太地区的销售在按比例增加。”
Embraer is braced for new competition from Russia’s Sukhoi Co. and theCommercial Aircraft Corporation of China,or Comac, particularly in their home markets, Cesar said. Both companies aredeveloping civilian airliners.
Cesar表示，巴西航空受到了来自俄罗斯的苏霍伊公司和中国商用飞机有限责任公司（COMAC）新的竞争，尤其在其国内市场。这两个公司都在开发民用飞机。
Middle East Link
中东联系
Royal Bank of Scotland’s Simpfendorfer, whose book “The New Silk Road: How aRising Arab World is Turning Away from The West and Rediscovering China” waspublished last year, says the trade ties between China and the Middle Eastalone make for a modern Silk Road.
苏格兰皇家银行的Simpfendorfer认为，中国和中东之间的贸易联系本身就是一条现代的丝绸之路。他去年出版了名为《新丝绸之路：崛起的阿拉伯国家是如何背离西方而重新发现中国》一书。
The original was more than 4,000 miles (10,200 kilometers) of trade routescrossing Asia and into southern Europe andnorth Africa. Based around China’s silk industry and once traveled by MarcoPolo, the commerce it enabled also helped power the growth of civilizationsfrom Egypt to Rome.
最初跨越亚洲，进入南欧和北非的贸易路线（丝绸之路）长达4000多英里（10200公里）。以中国的丝绸工业为基础，以及马克波罗的一次旅途，丝绸之路带来的商业也帮助推动了从埃及到罗马的文明进步。
Governments are seeking to take advantage of the modern version. India said inMay that it will open an economic division at its embassy in China’s capital asthe two countries seek to increase bilateral trade to $60 billion this yearfrom $43 billion last year. Since taking office in 2003, Brazilian PresidentLuiz Inacio Lula da Silva has visited about 68 developing nations, more thanany of his predecessors.
政府们都在寻求如何利用现代版的丝绸之路。印度表示，随着中印两国寻求双边贸易增长，从去年的430亿美元已增长到今年的600亿美元，5月份他们将会在位于中国首都的印度大使馆开设一个经济部。巴西总统卢拉（Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva）自2003年上任以来，已经访问了大约68个发展中国家，比任何一个前任都多。
With trade nevertheless comes tension. Developing economies in Asia and the Middle East accounted for about 45 percent of newanti-dumping investigations reported to the WTO in 2009, up from 22 percent in1998.
然而与贸易同来的还有贸易摩擦。2009年上报到国际贸易组织的新反倾销调查中，就有大约45％来自亚洲和中东的发展中国家。而在1998年只有22％。
Trade Tensions
贸易摩擦
China said in May that India shouldn’t discriminate against Chinesetelecommunication products, a month after people withknowledge of the matter said contracts for products from HuaweiTechnologies and ZTE Corp. were vetoed by India’s government on nationalsecurity grounds.
5月份，中国说印度不应该歧视中国的电信产品。而一个月前，消息人士说华为公司和中兴通讯的产品合同由于涉及国家安全原因而被印度政府否决。
MTN Group Ltd., Africa’s largest mobile-phone company, in June halted talks topurchase $10 billion of assets from Orascom Telecom Holding SAE after Algeria’sgovernment blocked a sale of the company’s local unit, the most profitable inthe portfolio. Orascom, the biggest mobile-phone company by subscribers in theMiddle East, also operates in Bangladesh,Pakistan and Egypt.
非洲最大的电信运营商MTN集团，在6月份与埃及奥斯康电信商谈采购100亿美元的设备，阿尔及利亚政府冻结了该公司在当地子公司的销售―――这是该公司的利润最大部门。奥斯康电信，这个中东最大的手机用户运营商，在孟加拉，巴基斯坦和埃及都有业务。
There is still scope for ties to strengthen. In a studyreleased last week, the Washington-based Inter-American Development Bankconcluded “massive bilateral trade” could develop between Latin America and India iftariffs are cut.
联系还能进一步加强。上周发布的一份研究中说，被总部设于华盛顿的美洲开发银行认为的“大规模的双边贸易”，在关税下调的条件下，能在拉丁美洲和印度展开。
Gene Grossman, who succeeded Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke as headof Princeton University’s economics department, seesa repeating pattern of what he called the “home market effect,” in whichcountries at similar income levels increasingly trade because their consumershave similar tastes and spending power.
Gene Grossman是继美国联邦储备委员会主席Ben S.Bernanke之后的普林斯顿大学经济系负责人。他观察到了一个重复的模式，他称之为“国内市场效应”。即：有着相似收入水平的国家的贸易在增加，因为他们的消费者有着相似的消费观念和消费能力。
India’s Tata Group was the second-largest investor in sub- Saharan Africa in the six years through 2009, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
经济合作和发展组织说，印度的塔塔集团是撒哈拉以南非洲地区到2009年的6年中的第二大投资人。
“Once an Indian firm enters and develops expertise based on its sales to itslocal market it now sees profit opportunities in serving markets elsewhere,”said Grossman.
Grossman表示，“一旦一家印度公司进入一个当地市场，并在此发展其销售专长，那就说明它也有满足其他市场需求的盈利机会” | 
狗仔卡
发表于 2010-8-6 20:14
提升卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
楼主
发表于 2010-8-6 21:30
