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【中文标题】如果中国更像日本就好了
【原文标题】If Only China Were More Like Japan
【登载媒体】商业周刊
【来源地址】http://www.businessweek.com/glob ... 20100831_989060.htm
【译者】vertex
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-263950-1-1.html
【译文】
China is heading toward a Japanese-style economic debacle, says columnist John Lee, who warns that the process won't be as gradual or peaceful
中国正走向一场日本式的经济崩溃，专栏作家John Lee说。他同时警告这个过程绝对不会是逐步或和平的。
By John Lee
Now that China has officially overtaken Japan as the world's second-largest economy, there is growing speculation by influential Chinese and U.S. economists, such as Wu Jinglian and John Makin, that China will soon endure its own "lost decade" as it suffers a Japanese-style malaise. The idea that contemporary Japan offers a glimpse of China's economic future is credible, given similarities in the two growth models. But Japan's economic decline has at least been a gradual and comfortable one for the Japanese people and government. For the Chinese Communist Party and the nation's people, following in Japan's footsteps would likely be much more traumatic.
既然中国已经正式赶上日本成为世界第二大经济体，中美有影响力的经济学者，像吴敬琏和john markin也不断推测，中国很快就会经历自身的“失落的十年”，如同日本经济的萎靡不振。因为这两个经济发展体系的相似性，无疑，当年的日本让我们看到了中国经济的未来。但是，对于日本公众和政府来说，日本经济的衰退至少是逐步并可以接受的。而对于中国共产党和这个国家的人民来说，步日本的后尘也许会更加痛苦。
Before there was conclusive proof that Japan was in an extended period of stagnation, some economists were warning about the dangers of over-reliance on exports and fixed investment to drive growth. Common wisdom counseled that Japan held advantages intrinsic to contemporary East Asian systems. For example, unlike the myopic policies pursued by constantly changing governments in Western systems, the dominance of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (which ruled nearly without interruption from 1955 to 2009) allowed long-term policy thinking and implementation to occur in Tokyo. In combination with a populace of clever, responsible, hard-working people, Japan was well-placed to manage the necessary transition toward a more sustainable growth model.
对于日本是否还在经济不景气的延长期还没有确切的证据，一些经济学家就警告了过分依赖出口和固定资产投资来促进增长的危险。一般想来，日本在当今的东亚体系有固有的优势。比如，与西方国家由于政府经常更换而制定的缺乏远见的政策不同，在日本自由民主党（自1955至2009执政且几乎没有腐败）的主导下，长期的政策设想在东京被很好的执行。再有，日本民族智慧、有责任感、勤劳，日本有能力战胜在向更可持续发展的经济体系中不可避免的转变。
Although "capitalism with Chinese characteristics" does not seek to replicate any particular model, its similarities to the Japanese approach are striking. Like Japan in the 1970s and '80s, China is nearing the end of its reliance on exports and fixed investment to drive growth—and looking to shift toward policies that can enhance domestic consumption. To achieve this, it is seemingly blessed with an authoritarian government that can concentrate on policies that need not sacrifice the country's long-term interests for short-term political expediency.
尽管“具有中国特色的资本主义”并不寻求复制任何既有的模式，它与日本的相似度还是惊人的。就像日本在七八十年代一样，中国在依靠出口和固定资产投资来促进增长上已经几乎无路可走——期望转变到刺激国内消费的政策上来。为了实现这些，一个独裁的政府确是个得天独后的条件，可以专注于不牺牲国家长远利益却实现短期政治利益的政策。
Japan built solid civil institutions
日本有稳固的民间机构。
Yet, as Beijing's response to the global financial crisis reveals (bank lending jumped, from $750 billion in 2008, to $1.4 trillion in 2009), China is becoming more—rather than less—dependent on an unsustainable model to drive economic growth. Domestic consumption as a proportion of gross domestic product is actually declining. At just over 30 percent, it is the lowest of any major country in modern economic history. The figure has declined, from more than 50 percent in the 1980s, to 40 percent at the turn of this century. It was around 36 percent prior to the global downturn in 2008.
对，北京对于全球经济危机的反应（银行贷款上升，2008年7500亿美元，2009年1.4万亿）表明，中国只会更多—而不是更少—依赖这个不可持续的体系来拉动经济发展。国内消费相对于国内生产总值下降了。30%多一点，在其它主要国家的当代经济史上是最低的了。这一数字一直在减少，80年代50%多，本世纪初为40%，经济危机前则为36%。
Similar models tend to lead to similar problems, as do the demographic problems in China, which will soon resemble Japan's. Worse, differences between the two political economies may bode ill for China. When the Japanese economic malaise began, the country had built solid institutions: rule of law, property rights, and a stable political system. The latter was clearly evident when the LDP lost power last year and initiated a handover without turmoil or bloodshed. Even though the Japanese development model is frequently described as a state-led approach, the private sector generally received around three quarters of the country's capital. This meant that prosperity was broadly distributed during the growth years. Even in structural decline, most Japanese are living the "good life"—and have grown rich before getting old.
相似的体系容易导致相似的问题，如同人口统计学上的困难，很快就会类似日本。更严重的是，两国政治经济学上不同预示了中国的困境。当日本经济低迷开始的时候，日本已经建立了牢固的制度：法律法规，财产权和稳固的政治体系。去年自由民主党下台而没有引发骚乱和流血事件就清楚的证明了后者。尽管日本的发展模式经常被说成政府主导的模式，私有资本仍占了国家资本的3/4.这意味着经济增长刺激了广泛的繁荣。即使在结构性衰退期间，大部分日本人仍过着“不错的生活”，并且随着年龄的增长而变的富有。
In contrast, these institutions in China are relatively undeveloped, even after three decades of reform. Moreover, the Chinese model of development has taken the state's role to unprecedented levels. Even though state-controlled enterprises (SOEs) produce between one-fourth and one-third of all output, they receive over 75 percent of the country's capital. During the flood of lending from 2008 to 2009, state-controlled enterprises received over 90 percent of all capital; private industry received less than 5 percent. Heavy bias toward the state-controlled sector reversed what had occurred during the first 10 years of reform (1979-1989) and was the direct result of the Chinese Communist Party having retaken control of the levers of economic power following the Tiananmen protests in 1989.
相反的，这些制度在中国相对来说还未得到发展，甚至在改革开发30年之后。并且，中国式的发展已经将政府的地步放到了一个空前的高度。即使国有企业占生产总值的1/4或1/3，他们仍控制75%的国家资产。在2008-2009年的借款大潮中，国有企业得到了90%的资金；私营企业只有不到5%。对国有企业严重的偏爱颠覆了改革开放最初十年所发生的一切，直接导致了1989年天安门事件后中国共产党重新掌握经济的杠杆。
Asia's most-unequal income spread
Focusing on China's unmatched bias toward its state-controlled sector is not merely about the inefficient use of capital, although that is putting serious strains on the sustainability of its economic model. Since so much of the country's wealth is concentrated in approximately 120,000 SOEs (and their countless subsidiaries), a relatively small group of well-placed, well-connected insiders benefit, while opportunities to prosper are denied to the vast majority.
亚洲最不公平的收入蔓延。
中国对国有部分不相称的偏爱不仅仅集中在毫无效率的资金利用方面，即使这已经在它经济体系的持续发展上已经造成了不小的压力。因为中国的财富集中在120000的国有企业上（和他们数不清的附属企业），只有相对职位高的、有关系的小部分内部人员得到好处，大多数人与成功的机会无缘。
For example, household incomes have increased by around 2 percent to 3 percent a year since 2000, while the coffers of the state-controlled sector enjoyed double-digit increases. Despite impressive GDP growth, about 400 million people have seen their net incomes stagnate or decline over the past decade. According to official data, the number of illiterate Chinese adults increased, from 85 million in 2000, to 114 million in 2005. From 2001, a 2006 World Bank study indicates, the income of China's poorest 10 percent was declining by 2.4 percent every year, suggesting that absolute poverty increased when national GDP was growing by double digits every year. It is no wonder that within one generation, China has gone from being the most equal (albeit from a low base) to the most unequal country in Asia, in terms of income distribution, according to World Bank calculations.
比如，自从家庭收入提高了2-3%，国有部门则享有两倍于此的增长。尽管有惊人的GDP增长，大约4亿人觉得他们的纯收入在过去的十年没有增长或者减少了。根据官方的数据，中国文盲从2000年的85000000增至2005年114000000。2001-2006的世界银行报告表明，中国10%的最贫困人口的收入每年降低2.4%，说明当GDP每年成两位数增长时绝对贫困人口增加了。毫无疑问，据世界银行的统计，同一代人的时间里，中国从收入最平等变成的最不平等的亚洲国家。The fact that the vast majority of Chinese have missed out on the fruits of economic growth has serious ramifications for social and ultimately, political stability. Instances of mass unrest—124,000 in 2008 according to official figures—are increasing at more than twice the pace of GDP growth. Beijing now spends more on internal security than it does on the People's Liberation Army. By the CCP's own calculations, the country needs 8 percent GDP growth per annum for the Party to remain in power. Unlike Japan, the vast majority of Chinese people will grow old and never be rich. This suggests that we are witnessing the rise of a profoundly fragile power.
事实是，大多数中国人并没有享受到经济增长的成果，而这是共产主义及其最终目标和政治稳定所要求的。大规模的骚乱——2008年官方数据124000例——成GDP增长的两倍的速度增长。北京如今在内部安全上花费的钱比花在人民解放军上的多。据中国共产党自己的数据，国家每年要花8%的GDP增长在维持党的执政上。不像日本，多数中国人会变老却永远都不会富有。这表明我们正在见证一个绝对脆弱的政权的崛起。
It would be better for China if it were a lot more like Japan. Economic malaise eventually led to a peaceful change of government in Tokyo. If the same were to occur in China, the transition might not be as smooth.
对中国来说，如果更像日本反而好。经济低迷最终导致了东京政府的和平转变。如果这发生在中国，转变恐怕不会这么平稳了。 |
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