|
|
【原文标题】China Needs to Hit the Brakes; US Needs to Step on the Gas
【中文标题】中国需要踩踩刹车 美国需要加大油门
【登载媒体】赫芬顿邮报
【来源地址】http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-lenzner/china-needs-to-hit-the-br_b_772881.html
【译 者】migwin
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译 文】
点击图片查看作者详细介绍
世界两大重要的经济体似乎有着极其迥异的目标。
这两大经济体之间的对立能够最严重地影响今天的金融市场和地缘政治。美国想要增加已经很庞大的债务来避免通货紧缩并且通过低利率来来刺激经济。中国，则不然，希望通过提高利率进一步促进经济增长，抑制通胀。这种对立就涉及到要避免危机的问题。
美联储主席伯南克希望数量上的减少是信贷更多地流入国内市场并创造就业。中国人民银行行长周小川则对房地产等的泡沫表示明显担忧。
周小川与伯南克观点相反，国内的贷款仍然在剧烈增多。他说，跨国资金流动存在潜在风险。宏观经济的危险与过度的资产流动，通胀，资产泡沫以及银行坏账的急剧增加有关。
讽刺的是，中国无比担心外国资金过度流入会使通胀和经济泡沫更为严重。美国则无比担心怎样才能得到更多的信贷来做国内投资并增加就业？这一点搞错了，那些依赖中国出口和美国制造业并且祈祷把出口扩大一倍的亚洲国家就等着做噩梦吧！
中国根本输不起，因为它的下一个五年计划必须把资源集中到民生，家庭收入和社会福利上。它那了不起的10%的增长率也将由于第十二个五年计划而减缓到8%。
中国也同样被其他的发展所牵制。九月末，收紧房地产市场，打压投机行为的政策出台。比如，商品房的首付比例被提高到30%，而且银行不得为其提供贷款。从美国2007年来所发生的来看，这样做是明智的。
【原文】
The two most important economies in the world seem to have vastly different goals.
The dichotomy between the world's two greatest economies is the tension most impacting the financial markets and geopolitics today. The U.S. wants to add to already substantial amounts of indebtedness to avoid deflation and to stimulate the economy by dint of lower interest rates. China, on the other hand, wishes to dampen its economic growth and stifle growing inflation by raising its interest rates, which it just did this week. Two opposite paths to avoid crisis, and another violent battering of financial markets.
Ben Bernanke hopes quantitative easing will increase the flow of credit to the domestic economy and stimulate job creation. China's Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, is plainly worried about asset bubbles forming in real estate and other activities in China.
Zhou sounds the opposite pole from Bernanke; domestic credit expansion still remains strong. "There are potential risks from cross-border capital flows," Zhou said Thursday. "Macroeconomic risks linked to excessive liquidity, inflation, asset bubbles and a cyclical rise in bad bank loans are rising significantly."
Irony of ironies is that China is flat-out worried about the excess liquidity flowing from the rest of the world, driving up inflation and threatening bubbles. America is flat-out anxious about how to get its excessive credit to get invested at home and create jobs. Getting all of this wrong would be a nightmare for other Asian nations dependent on exports to China, and on U.S. manufacturers praying for double the level of exports.
China can't afford to blow up, because its next five-year economic plan must concentrate substantial resources on "social well-being," spending on household income and social welfare for the poorest Chinese, who are being moved from rural areas to urban centers. Its extraordinary 10% rate of growth is bound to slow to 8% due to the 12th Five-Year Plan, just in its inception stage.
China will also be constrained by other developments as well. New policies to tighten the real estate market and dampen speculation were introduced in late September. For example, mandatory down payments for commercial residential housing were raised to 30%, and banks must prevent consumer loans from being used for the purchase of housing. That's wise in view of what took place in the U.S. from 2007 onward. |
评分
-
1
查看全部评分
-
|
狗仔卡
发表于 2010-10-25 14:55
提升卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
