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【中文标题】中国的贸易顺差具有抗药性
【原文标题】China's Drug-Resistant Surplus
【登载媒体】《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal）
【来源地址】http://online.wsj.com/article/SB ... 05743577599242.html
【译者】rhapsody
【声明】本译文供Anti-CNN网站使用，未经AC或译者同意、谢绝转载
【译文】
If only trade deficits with China could be managed as in the old days, U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron might reflect after his trip to Beijing this week.
要是对华贸易逆差能像过去那样解决就好了，英国首相卡梅伦在本周访问北京后或许会这么回想。
Cameron's insistence on wearing a poppy during his visit—a symbol of remembrance for Britain's war dead—ruffled his host's feathers. For the Chinese, poppies are a reminder of the humiliating Opium wars of the 19th century. Back then, the powerful British Navy was able to force China to import the drug, helping to offset burgeoning Chinese exports of tea, silk and other commodities.
卡梅伦坚持在此次访问期间佩戴罂粟花——那象征着对英国阵亡战士的纪念【译注：11月11日是英联邦国家的阵亡将士纪念日，也是第一次世界大战停战协定签订的日子，这一天前后英联邦国家的民众会在胸前佩带一朵小红罂粟花以示纪念，卡梅伦此次访华正好是在该节日之前】——这惹恼了东道主。对于中国人来说，罂粟花勾起了他们对19世纪鸦片战争的耻辱记忆。那时，强大的英国海军可以用武力迫使中国进口毒品，以抵消中国迅速增长的茶叶、丝绸及其他商品的出口。
These days, of course, keeping China's trade surplus down is a bit trickier. Data out Wednesday highlights this: Spiking to $27.2 billion, October's surplus is the second highest in one month so far this year. Ahead of this week's Group of 20 meeting in Seoul, that's sure to put more pressure on China to help cure global imbalances by agreeing to limit its current account surplus to 4% of GDP in the future.
当然，如今要减少中国的贸易顺差就有点让人挠头了。周三公布的数据凸显了这一点：中国十月份的贸易顺差达到272亿美元的高点，为本年以来顺差第二高的月份。数据公布时间正好是本周在首尔召开的二十国集团峰会之前，这肯定使各方对中国施加更多压力，要求中国同意以后将其经常账户盈余控制在GDP的4%以内，以缓解全球（贸易）的不平衡局面。
But even if Beijing were willing, this might not prove easy to do. Its exports have continued to grow in recent years even to regions like the euro zone and South America, which have seen their currencies depreciate against the yuan. This is in part because Chinese exporters are able to keep prices low by finding new ways to cut costs -- like moving production inland where wages are cheaper, says Royal Bank of Scotland economist Ben Simpfendorfer.
但即使北京当局愿意这么做，真要实行起来可能也没那么容易。中国出口在近些年来呈持续增长态势，甚至在欧元区和南美洲这些本身货币已是对人民币贬值的地区也是如此。这有部分原因是中国的出口商能够通过一些新的办法来降低成本，保持低价——比如将生产移往工资水平较低的内地，苏格兰皇家银行的经济学家本。辛普芬多夫说道。
The U.K. is a case in point: Since the start of 2007 the pound has fallen by 30% against the yuan, but the U.K.'s trade deficit with China has grown by a similar amount over the same timeframe. For sure, China could allow even faster yuan appreciation to reduce its cost advantage. But it's unlikely to agree to such a sudden move. Japan's assent to yen appreciation in the 1980s— and the subsequent damage its economy suffered—is a more recent historical episode full of foreboding for Beijing.
英国是这其中一个例子：自2007年初以来英国兑人民币的汇率已经下跌了30%，但英国同期的对华贸易逆差却有了相似幅度的增长。毋庸置疑，中国甚至可以允许人民币更快地升值，降低其成本优势。但中国不会同意作出这种突然的举动。日本在上世纪80年代同意日元升值——以及之后对其经济所造成的损害——是一个对北京当局充满了警示含义、历历在目的历史事件。
Meanwhile, the chances of China agreeing to limits on its trade surplus this week have receded anyway given apparent disagreement between the country's central bank and foreign ministry about the right approach. But even if China's policy were clear, there are no quick solutions to bringing down its trade surplus.
与此同时，由于各国央行和外长对于什么是正确路径存在着明显分歧，中国在本周同意限制其贸易顺差的可能性无论如何都已经为零了。但即使中国的政策是清晰的，也不存在能够降低其贸易顺差的任何捷径。
It's certainly going to take more than some well-armed ships and expensive hard drugs this time.
这个问题现在显然不是靠全副武装的舰船和昂贵烈性的毒品就能解决的。 |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-11-10 21:44
提升卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
发表于 2010-11-10 21:59
当年鸦片战争之前的10年，英国包括欧洲的其他国家，跟天朝做生意，也是年年逆差！那个纪连海怎么说的，什么越做越亏来着？！
前段时间不是有英国的媒体教唆着要发动第三次鸦片战争吗？！~
