【原文标题】China Faces a Nettlesome Neighbor in North Korea
【中文标题】朝韩冲突再次升级 中国陷入被动局面
【登载媒体】纽约时报
【来源地址】http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/24/world/asia/24beijing.html?_r=1&ref=world
【译 者】 Claire
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译 文】
11月23日，韩国西部延坪岛上硝烟滚滚
11月23日，人们观望韩国西部延坪岛上的滚滚硝烟
当地时间11月24日，韩国延坪岛遭朝鲜炮击后一片废墟
北京-朝鲜不断挑起争端的行为让许多人好奇它的底线到底是什么，但更让人好奇的是其保护者和老大哥-中国的底线在哪儿。
尽管朝鲜仍处于贫困状态并严重依赖于中国的援助，但它似乎却在公然反抗中国的每一个外交举动，不管是中国致力于朝鲜半岛无核化的举动，还是中国防止朝鲜发生暴力冲突的举动。
中国的全球影响力在持续增强，但只要涉及朝鲜这个共产主义邻居和曾经的同盟,中国领导就会开始左右为难，有时放纵朝鲜的行为，有时又时不时发出被激怒的信号，但从没有规劝过朝鲜走一条开放稳定的道路。
在复旦大学进行韩国研究的蔡健教授说：“现在中国的影响力还是有限的。一方面，中国不满于朝鲜的举动和挑衅行为，另一方面又仍要支持朝鲜。”
中国一直支持朝鲜的原因在于，担心一旦中朝关系破裂，韩国将有可能控制朝鲜，“这样一来就相当于把韩国的军事盟友-美国引到了中国的大门口。”
蔡教授还说，朝鲜领导金正日近日出访中国时曾与中国主席胡锦涛会晤，期间胡锦涛说，希望中朝双方加强联系这样中国就不会惊异于朝鲜的举动了。
上月，中国高层领导周永康公开出访朝鲜时对朝鲜做出了警告。据称，周永康告诉金正日中国将支持其子的继任，但朝鲜必须在经济开放上做出实质性的举动，包括重新做出外交努力来缓解外部经济压力。中央政治局常务会的九位最高领导与朝鲜都没有密切联系。中国对朝鲜共产主义政治王朝的加固也没有多大兴趣。
尽管中国一直试图适应朝鲜特殊的政治体系，但明显还是震惊于朝鲜近期的发展。中国媒体对朝鲜建成铀浓缩工厂的新闻保持怀疑态度。一贯坚持奉行国家主义的环球时报引用了专家对中国外交政策的怀疑论，并称朝鲜一直“有目的的采取强硬态度”。
朝鲜炮轰韩国岛屿这一事件 周二，中国官员透露他们对此事件完全没有进一步的消息，也无法与朝方取得联系。在一场新闻发布会上，外交部一位发言人称中国需要先证实媒体的报道。
中国还呼吁相关各方恢复六方会谈。但几乎所有中国的分析者都认为，朝鲜现在在全球范围内被视为是无限制拥有核能力的国家，如果它不表现出愿意谈判的态度而只是一味提出要求，那么中国的举动不会产生任何作用。
周二晚上，美国驻朝鲜特使Stephen W.Bosworth在北京进行演讲时也呼吁恢复六方会谈，他还说他已经与中国官员进行了有实质意义的会谈，并且双方已经达成了建立多边主义的共识。
但在之前的谈判中，朝鲜违背中国公开立场，利用谈判拖延的时间进一步发展核能力。中国也一再呼吁双方冷静下来，并致力于避免各种武装冲突，但朝鲜和韩国现在还是陷入了互相炮轰的局面。
这将加深中国国内批评家对朝鲜的不满，特别是一些在地理位置上靠近国界的。中国东北的许多领导对大批难民入境的状况十分不满，这些难民基本上是为了逃离国内的贫困环境而入境的。
许多人都好奇中国除了抱怨之外会不会有其他举动。金正日访华的目的可能是为了加强中方对其子继任的支持并为近期的挑衅事件作准备。以前很长一段时间，这类游说是有用的，中国会选择忽略朝鲜的挑衅。比如说在2006年，中国对朝鲜的导弹试验没发出任何警告，致使北京官员直接称其“厚颜无耻”，这与中国以前平淡的回应相比是很激励的评论。那次事件导致了一场有限制的制裁。现在的问题是中国面对细微的影响还会不会让步。
“不管是在党内，民间，还是在军队，中国已经越来越反感朝鲜的流氓政治了”，一位中国资深媒体评论员这么说道，考虑到事情的敏感性，他不愿透露姓名。他还说“但从战略上来说，中国被朝鲜挟持了”。
【原文】
BEIJING — North Korea’s unending appetite for confrontation has left many wondering what its bottom line is, none more so than its supposed patron and big brother, China.
Despite its impoverishment and heavy dependence on Chinese aid and support, North Korea seems to regularly defy every Chinese diplomatic initiative, from Beijing’s work to keep the Korean Peninsula nuclear-free to its efforts to prevent a violent confrontation.
China’s influence is rising steadily around the world. But the problem of how to manage North Korea, its Communist neighbor and onetime ally, appears to befuddle China’s leaders, who stumble from indulging the North to sending occasional signals of pique, all without persuading the country to adopt a path toward greater openness or stability.
“At the moment China has limited influence,” said Cai Jian, a professor of Korean studies at Fudan University. “On one hand it’s unhappy with North Korean actions and its provocative behavior, but on the other hand it still has to support North Korea.”
The support continues because China fears that the vacuum created by a sudden collapse there would open the door to rule by South Korea, “and that will put an American military alliance on the doorstep of China.”
Mr. Cai said that during a recent trip to China, the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il,was told by the Chinese president, Hu Jintao, that they should communicate better so that China would not be surprised by its behavior.
This was followed by a warning given by one of China’s senior leaders, Zhou Yongkang, who made a much publicized trip to North Korea last month. Mr. Zhou reportedly told Mr. Kim that China would support his son’s succession but North Korea would have to take substantive steps to open up its economy, including rejoining diplomatic efforts, to relieve the external economic pressures on it. None of the top nine leaders in China — the Standing Committee of the Politburo — have close ties to North Korea. And China has little interest in seeing a Communist political dynasty take hold.
Despite its efforts to accommodate North Korea’s idiosyncratic political system, China was apparently caught off guard by the recent developments. The news that North Korea had built a sophisticated uranium enrichment plant was received with incredulity by Chinese media outlets. The normally nationalistic Global Times cited experts who cast doubt on China’s diplomatic strategy and said that North Korea had been “purposefully hard-line.”
The North Korean shelling of a South Korean island seemed to have been even more of a shock. On Tuesday, Chinese officials implied that they had no advance knowledge at all and still had no contact. At a press briefing, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said China needed to verify media reports.
China also called on all sides to return to “six-party talks” between the main countries involved in the region. But almost no Chinese analyst seems to believe that this will result in anything until North Korea shows an eagerness to negotiate rather than make demands — the current one seeming to be that the world recognize it as a full nuclear power with no strings attached.
Speaking in Beijing on Tuesday evening, the United States special envoy to North Korea, Stephen W. Bosworth, also called for a return to the six-nation talks and said he had “very useful” talks with Chinese officials. The two sides, he said, agreed on the need for multilateralism.
But during previous negotiations, North Korea used the time to further develop its nuclear capacity, even though this was against China’s public position. China has also repeatedly called for calm and the avoidance of armed confrontation, but the two Koreas are now shelling each other.
This could strengthen the hand of critics of North Korea within China, some of whom are geographically closest to the border. Many leaders in northeastern China are frustrated over the steady flow of refugees escaping poverty. Others are disappointed that North Korea has dashed decades of hopes for cross-border trade or special economic zones along the border.
The question many have is whether China will do more than grumble. On his China trip, Mr. Kim was probably trying to shore up his support in Beijing for his son and in preparation for his current provocations. Many times in the past, that sort of lobbying worked and China chose to ignore the North’s provocations. In 2006, for example, China had almost no warning of a North Korean missile test, leading Beijing to call it “brazen” — fighting words compared with China’s normal response. That led to limited sanctions. The question now is how close China is again to giving up on subtle influence.
“No matter whether it be within the party, among the people, or even within the military, China has grown increasingly sick and tired of North Korea’s rogue politics,” said a senior Chinese media commentator, who asked not to be named because of the delicacy of the issue. “But strategically, China’s kidnapped by it.”
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发表于 2010-11-24 16:48
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