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【原文标题】China Could Be the Big Winner Amid Korean Tensions
【中文标题】中国可能是朝鲜半岛紧张局势的大赢家
【登载媒体】Daily Finance
【来源地址】http://www.dailyfinance.com/stor ... -tensions/19732358/
【译 者】 stupid_stacey
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译 文】
中朝
本周，神秘的朝鲜政权，再次吸引了世界注意。去年三月，朝鲜的鱼雷击沉了一艘韩国军舰。周二，继朝鲜的集炮齐射行动杀死两名南韩海军并烧毁房屋发起公然挑衅后，世界的眼光再次聚焦朝鲜。
分析家们竞相揣测朝鲜动机。最可能的情况是，朝鲜政权希望借此得到国际社会重视，并将大国带到谈判桌前以获得更大收益。
对于投资者来说，在这些事件背后，一个更重要的动态机制正在形成。亚洲在经过几个月的忙乱局势后终于有了最新的进展。与此同时，中国日益壮大的经济力量快速推进了中国在处理地区政治中的中心地位。最终的一决胜负很可能促使中国以中间人的身份处理国际事务，特别是在中美贸易关系日益紧张的情况下，这很可能促成中国力量的提升。
地缘政治分析
一直以来，中朝复杂的关系以及中国对朝鲜直接的影响都备受争议。中国长期向朝鲜供应具有象征意义的支持，以及必需品例如食品和燃料的供给。
但平壤根本上有更重要的杠杆作用。一旦朝鲜政权倒台，不仅意味着一块重要缓冲区域消失，同时美国军队将轻易抵达其南部并缓解难民危机。
分析家指出，中国对于最近的战事似乎真的感到惊讶，朝鲜此举也是先于中美高级别会议之前进行的。
“中国毫无疑问对朝鲜在胡锦涛一月中旬访美前的挑衅行为感到尴尬”欧亚集团政治风险分析顾问在给客户的报告中这么写道。“更糟糕的是，这个事件再次显示出，中国无法或是不愿遏制朝鲜。”
但随着中美在该区域的势力竞争，事态的发展很可能会给予中国一定的优势。迄今为止，中国仍对朝鲜抱有支持态度，而今年三月由于南韩军舰被击沉国际激愤达到顶峰后，中国也是一样归根结底，美国在处理朝鲜问题上只有有限的手段，所以必须借助中国作为调解人。对于韩国和美国来说任何交易都无疑是考验其对日本、台湾这样的地区同盟支持能力的试金石。
局势升级
然而，中国可以以压制朝鲜作为交换获得足够多的利益。最近，随着美国对中国不让人民币升值以吸纳资金的行为表现出日益增加的不满时，紧张局势不断升级。同时，中国也指责美国正用操控性的政策，而这很可能导致发展中国家的通货膨胀。
日本作为美国的另一个同盟，与中国的关系也逐渐紧张。本月初，日本向位于东中国海的有争议岛屿派遣部队，而那里可能富含自然资源。在此之前，曾发生过一系列激烈的对决，包括中国渔船与日本军舰相撞和中国非正式的限制了向日本出口稀土资源。
这反过来促成了日本与印度在稀土资源开发利用上的合作。本周，日本最大的稀土进口商转投一家澳大利亚公司，形成“战略同盟”来保障未来稀土资源的供应。中国的举动，换而言之，在地区内产生了连锁反应。
中国经济的迅速崛起伴随着许多一厢情愿的想法。按照那些强调中国“和平崛起”的普遍看法来说，作为一个几乎和美国融合的理想贸易伙伴，中国仅仅想在扩大财富的同时保持工厂的正常运转。
然而，中国已经多次在国际舞台上证明了自己的聪明才智，而不是一个容易被驾驭的角色。随着朝鲜半岛紧张局势再次绷紧，中国很可能将寻求推进自己的议事日程。
【原文】
China Could Be the Big Winner Amid Korean Tensions
By VISHESH KUMAR
The mysterious North Korean regime managed to rattle markets again this week. Markets sold off Tuesday after a volley of artillery fire killed two South Korean marines and set houses ablaze in the most flagrant act of provocation since Pyongyang had a South Korean naval vessel torpedoed last March.
Analysts are scrambling to decipher North Korea's motives. The most likely scenario is that the regime wants to get attention and draw world powers to the bargaining table where it can extract more concessions.
But for investors, a more consequential dynamic may be taking shape behind the scenes. The latest episode follows several hectic months in Asia where China's expanding economic might is quickly leading it to take center stage in regional politics. Ultimately, the showdown may boost Beijing's role as power broker in the region and could strengthen its hand when it comes to increasingly tense economic relations with the United States.
Geopolitical Issues
China has a complicated relationship with North Korea and the extent of Beijing's direct influence has been hotly debated. China provides plenty of symbolic support along with necessities like food and fuel.
But Pyongyang may ultimately have more leverage. A collapse in North Korea would eliminate an important buffer zone and could allow U.S. troops to easily reach its southern along with unleashing a refugee crisis.
Analysts note that China seemed genuinely surprised by the recent barrage, and the North Korean move comes ahead of high-level meetings between China and the U.S.
"China is, no doubt, embarrassed by North Korean provocations in advance of President Hu Jintao's mid-January visit to Washington," analysts at political risk consultancy The Eurasia Group wrote in a note to clients. "Worse, the incident has again shown that Beijing is either unable or unwilling to restrain Pyongyang."
But as the U.S. and China compete for influence in the region, the development could give Beijing an advantage nonetheless. So far, China has remained supportive of North Korea, much as it was in March even as international outrage mounted over the sinking of the South Korean naval vessel.
The United States, after all, has limited means of influencing North Korean aggression and must use China as an intermediary. And along with South Korea, any exchange will serve as a litmus test for the ability of the U.S. to support the interests of other regional allies like Taiwan and Japan.
Tensions Rising
China, meanwhile, has plenty of concessions to seek in exchange for pressuring Pyongyang. Tensions have been escalating lately, with the U.S. becoming increasingly aggressive about the jobs that China's undervalued currency allows it to siphon off. At the same time, China complains that the U.S. is pursuing manipulative policies that could lead to inflation in the developing world.
Japan, another U.S. ally, has also seen rapidly escalating tensions with China. Earlier this month,Japan dispatched troops to disputed islandsin the East China Sea that may be rich in natural resources. The move follows a bitter showdown after a Chinese fishing boat rammed a Japanese naval vesseland China informally clamped down on vital rare earth metal exports to Japan.
That, in turn, led to a new collaboration between Japan and India In the development and reuse of rare earth metals. This week, Japan's largest importer of rare earth metals turned to an Australian companyto form a "strategic alliance" to secure future supply. Beijing's moves, in other words, are having a rippling effect across the region.
The rapid rise in the Chinese economy was accompanied by much wishful thinking. An ideal trading partner that was almost fused with America, China wished only to keep its factories humming as its wealth expanded, according to the popular view that emphasizes China's "peaceful rise."
ButBeijing is proving itself shrewd rather than docile on the international stage time and again. And it will likely look to further its own agenda as tensions mount again on the Korean peninsula. |
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发表于 2010-11-26 14:22
