【原文标题】China: As Clueless as Everyone Else About North Korea?
【中文标题】中国面对朝鲜问题是否依然举棋不定？
【登载媒体】时代周刊
【来源地址】http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20101130/wl_time/08599203368700
【译 者】黑霸王
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译 文】
Against the backdrop of tension on the Korean peninsula soaring to its highest level in decades, the world's new presumed super power decided the moment had come to strut its stuff. China dispatched its most important diplomat, state councilor Dai Bingguo, to Seoul for hurried talks with South Korean President Lee Myung Bak. Back in Beijing, the foreign ministry summoned journalists late on a Sunday afternoon to announce that China was calling on the U.S., South Korea, Japan, Russia and, yes, North Korea - all the members of the so called six party talks - to gather in December for "emergency consultations" on how to arrest the deteriorating security situation in the Koreas. With images of the bombed out Yeonpyeong Island still flickering on TV screens across South Korea and the country's military at its highest state of alert, China was calling for talks... about the resumption of the six party talks.
随着朝鲜半岛上的局势达到了近几十年来最紧张的局面，新兴的超级大国-中国，决定是时候大显身手了。中国派出了最重要的外交官-国务委员戴秉国，前往首尔与韩国总统李明博进行紧急会谈。回到北京之后，外交部长在周日下午召开的记者招待会上宣布，中国呼吁美国，韩国，日本，俄罗斯还有朝鲜在12月重启所谓的六方会谈，针对如何解决朝鲜半岛上不断恶化的安全局势进行紧急磋商。朝鲜炮轰延坪岛的画面还在韩国的电视台一遍遍的播放，韩国的警戒状况也提升到了最高级别，在此情况下，中国呼吁进行谈判，也就是重启六方会谈。
The South Korean response was polite enough, but firm. As a senior official in Lee Myung Bak's administration told TIME Tuesday, "we think the first thing for any member [of the international community] to do is to state North Korea' s responsibility for the recent attack." (China still hasn't.) Without that, this official said icily, "the suggestion for dialogue lacks any sincerity." In Washington Monday, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs didn't even bother being polite. He was derisive: "The United States and a host of others I don't think are interested in stabilizing the region through a series of PR activities." (See TIME's photoessay "Koreas Exchange Fire at Disputed Border.")
韩国的回应十分有礼，但同时也很坚定。李明博政府的一位高级官员在周二接受《时代周刊》采访时曾冷冰冰地说，“我们认为作为国际社会的任何一员，首先应该正式声明朝鲜在近次袭击上应付的责任。”（中国还未发表任何谴责朝鲜的声明。）如果不这样，“那我们就会认为中国呼吁进行会谈的提议并不真诚”。周一时，白宫发言人罗伯特·吉布斯的回应相当无礼，他无不嘲弄地说："我觉得美国和其他许多国家对通过一系列公共关系活动来稳定朝鲜半岛的秩序没有丝毫兴趣。"（参见《时代周刊》组照“朝韩在有争议地区交火”）
Make no mistake: the world - and the United States and South Korea in particular - wanted China to do something. What they wanted - and still want - China to do is to send Dai Bingguo (or some other senior Party official who represents the very center of the Chinese power) to Pyongyang not to talk about the six party talks but to knock heads. And to keep knocking heads until Kim Jong Il and his third son, heir apparent Kim Jong Un, 28, get the message that the North's provocative behavior has got to stop.
毫无疑问，世界各国都希望中国能有所举动，特别是美国和韩国。他们一直希望中国能派遣戴秉国（或者其他能够代表中国高层权力的共产党官员）前往平壤，但并不是为了重启六方会谈，而是希望中国不断警醒朝鲜，直到金正日及其28岁的三子-金正恩明白到朝鲜的挑衅行为必须停止。
Yet with North and South Korea inching closer to a resumption of one of the 20th century's bloodiest wars, the China's diplomatic response seemed tin-eared at best - and clueless at worst. It refused publicly to criticize its ally and then called for a resumption of a two-year-old diplomatic process that, at this moment anyway, is irrelevant. No wonder that an exasperated western diplomat in Seoul Monday told TIME that when it comes to North Korea, "China just seems to be missing the point." 朝韩对抗在不断升级，似乎即将重启在二战中的对峙。而中国的外交反应，说得好听一点是耳朵不好，说得难听点就是能力不足。中国拒绝公开批评其同盟，而只是呼吁重启为期两年的外交进程，也就是六方会谈，这在现在的情况下是没有作用的。难怪驻首尔的西方外交家在周一接受《时代周刊》采访是会愤怒地认为，只要是涉及到朝鲜问题，“中国就会顾左右而言他。”
The point, he hastened to add, is this: China has already, through its sustained economic growth and its size, drawn South Korea into its orbit. Beijing is Seoul's largest trading partner, has been for several years now. No less than 21.5% of South Korea's exports in 2009 went to China. (Next on the list is the U.S., at just 10.9%.) Both South Korea and China, via trade, are making each other richer. A Seoul-led reunified Korea (minus the Kim dynasty) turns the North into one vast construction site almost instantaneously. And as anyone who has been to China once in the last two decades understands, the Chinese leadership knows a thing or two about turning a country into a construction site. Instead, the leadership in China seems content to play a conservative, balance of power, keep-your-buffer-state-afloat-no-matter-what game. The result is what the world saw last Tuesday with Pyongyang's unprovoked attack on sparsely populated Yeonpyeong island. Two civilians and two South Korean Marines were killed. (See photos of Kim Jong Un.)
他很快又加了一句：通过持续的经济发展和实力的扩张，中国已经把韩国也加入了其发展轨道。从几年前开始，北京就已经成为了首尔最大的贸易伙伴。在2009年，韩国对中国的出口量高达21.5%。（韩国的第二大出口国为美国，出口量仅占10.9%。）透过贸易，中韩两国都获得了利润。以首尔为首的统一朝鲜半岛（不包括金正日的统治）的力量几乎即刻地把朝鲜变成了一片大工地。凡是在过去二十年到过中国的人都知道，中国的领导层对如何把一个国家变成自己的工地略知一二。但是，中国领导层没有这样，而只是满足于现在保守而且势力均衡的局面，只要留有朝鲜这片缓冲地带，那一切都无所谓。这样的结果就是，在上周二，全世界都目睹了平壤对人口稀少的延坪岛毫无缘由的炮击。炮击致使两名平民和两名韩国海军陆战队员身亡。
The publication of volumes of US diplomatic cables from WikiLeaks has raised a flutter in the press that perhaps China is of two minds about North Korea. It quotes the U.S. Ambassador to Seoul quoting South Korea's National Security Adviser, Chun Yung-Woo, quoting two unnamed Chinese officials saying China would be fine with a reunified Korea under Seoul's stewardship in a "benign alliance" with the U.S. - so long as it was not hostile to China. "The two officials," Chun said, were ready to "'face the new reality' that the DPRK [North Korea] now had little value to China as a buffer state." The WikiLeaks revelations also seem to reveal that Chinese officials - mostly foreign ministry officials or think tank "experts" can be as hopelessly wrong about what's actually happening in the North as anyone else.
维基解密泄露的美国外交电报在新闻界激起了强烈反应，外界认为中国在朝鲜问题上依然举棋未定。电报中提到，据美国驻首尔大使称，韩国国家安全顾问千英宇透露两名未公开姓名的中国官员说，虽然韩国与美国是同盟，但只要其对中国不怀敌意，那么中国对韩国统一领导朝鲜半岛是没有异议的。千英宇称：“这两名官员...意识到现在朝鲜除了充当缓冲地带外，对中国没有别的价值。”维基解密泄露的电报也表现出了另一点，和所有人一样，中国官员，尤其是其外交部官员和智囊团专家们对朝鲜的真正问题都抱着错误的观点。
Both points are undoubtedly true. Can Chinese foreign ministry officials be in the dark about whether North Korea plans to launch a nuclear test, just like everyone else in the outside world? No doubt. But it's important to understand that China's Foreign Ministry doesn't make big decisions when it comes to North Korea policy. They influence them, but they don t make them. That's left to Central Committee members, the international department of the Chinese Communist Party (wholly separate from the Foreign Ministry) the State Council (which oversees the Foreign Ministry) and high-ranking officers in the People's Liberation Army. (More than 180,000 Chinese soldiers died in the war in Korea that started 60 years ago). How many of the real decision makers in China is the world hearing from, indirectly, in the WikiLeaks revelations? It's unclear, but it's probably not a lot.
这些观点都毫无疑问是真实的。难道中国外交部官员也像外界所有人一样对朝鲜的核试验计划一无所知？这是毫无疑问的。但我们要明白，中国外交部在朝鲜问题的政策上没有决定权。他们可以影响到对朝政策，但不能做决定。决定权在中央委员会委员、中国共产党涉外部门（完全独立于外交部）、国务院（对外交部进行监管）和中国人民解放军高级官员。（超过180，000名中国士兵牺牲在了抗美援朝的战场上）。有多少名中国真正的决策者被间接暴露在了维基解密披露的电报中？我们不得而知，但可能只是很少的一部分。
So the fact that there are people in the foreign and economics ministries in Beijing, who deal with foreigners routinely and who do, in fact, "get the point" when it comes to North Korea, should not be overly reassuring. They're not running the country, at least not yet. A senior South Korean official who sat in Dai Bingguo's meeting with Lee Myung-bak on Sunday - a session that lasted two hours and 10 minutes - said he got the sense that "the inner circle of the Chinese government does have some sort of concern or dilemma. They understand that this situation with North Korea can have a negative impact on China's national interest in the future." But if China was going to change its position on the North, Dai gave no hint of it, this source says. "China has not changed its official position."
所以我们不能确定那些在北京处理涉外事务的外交部门或者经济部门官员在处理朝鲜问题时是否抓住了要点。因为他们不能掌管整个国家，至少现在还不能。周日，戴秉国与李明博进行了会谈，一位韩国高级官员出席了这场长达2小时10分的会议，他说他认识到“中国政府核心集团确实有顾虑而且正处于左右为难的局面。他们知道中国与朝鲜的关系将对其未来的国际利益产生负面影响。”他还说，虽然戴秉国没有提到中国是否会调整与朝鲜的关系，但“中国还没有改变其官方立场”。
Not yet, anyway. If they are in the process of doing so, they'll make their displeasure known to Pyongyang, and quickly. Chinese officials, as the WikiLeaks revelations make clear, can be in as much of a fog about decision-making in North Korea as anyone else; but don t confuse that with a lack of clout. Beijing remains Pyongyang's economic lifeline: North Korea is almost wholly reliant on China for energy supplies. From 2002 through 2007, Beijing's energy exports to Pyongyang more than tripled, from $118 million to $402 million. If China really wants to get Kim Jong Il's attention, it can. The question remains: does it really want to?
不管怎么说，至少现在中国的立场没有变。如果中国真的想改变立场，它会马上对朝鲜流露不满。维基解密已经表明，中国官员对朝鲜问题依然左右为难；但不要低估了中国对朝鲜的影响力。北京依然是平壤的经济生命线：朝鲜在能源补给上还完全依赖于中国。从2002年到2007年，北京对平壤的出口额翻了三倍，从118，000，000美元升至了402，000，000美元。如果中国真的想引起金正日的注意，它肯定能做到。但问题在于：中国真的想这样吗？
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发表于 2010-12-1 14:45
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