本帖最后由 满仓 于 2010-12-27 11:56 编辑
【中文标题】鉴于你的中国立场，唐纳德•特朗普，你被解雇了！
【原文标题】Due to Your China Stance, Donald Trump, You’re Fired
【登载媒体】福布斯
【原文作者】John Tamny
【原文链接】http://blogs.forbes.com/johntamny/2010/12/19/due-to-your-china-stance-donald-trump-youre-fired/
译者注：
The Apprentice，译作《飞黄腾达》、《学徒》，是美国的一个真人秀电视节目，纽约地产大亨唐纳德•特朗普是这个节目的主持人。这个节目是要为特朗普挑选一位合适的人，成为他的“接班人”。胜出这个“终极面试”的人可以得到特朗普公司的一份年薪25万美元，为期一年的合约。
每一季的《The Apprentice》均有来自美国各地的应征者（参加者）。他们会被分成两家“公司”（组），在不同的商业项目中竞赛。每次落败的一组要来到他的会议室，表现最差的应征者会被解雇（淘汰出局）。
特朗普在《The Apprentice》中最为人熟悉的莫过于是他的口头禅“你被解雇了！”（You're fired!）。
CNN在近期采访唐纳德•特朗普时，他发表了以下言论。
http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2010/04/06/n_trump_china_sob.cnnmoney/
听译如下：
“我们已经不再制造任何东西了。我们提供医疗服务和其它服务，但是最大规模的生产型产业已经没有了。所有东西都是中国生产的，或许印度也有一些，但最主要是中国。他们把产品运进来，我们花钱购买，而有趣的是，几乎没对他们征收任何关税。我们不被允许在中国做生意，在中国做生意困难重重。他们把我们的生意从南卡罗来纳州、北卡罗来纳州和阿拉巴马州抢走。他们生产玩具，然后卖给我们，挣了大把的钱，而且还借钱给我们。这太可怕了。”
“我在美国的确有很多不同类型的产业。看看中国生产的那些东西，完全可以在南卡罗来纳州、阿拉巴马和其它地方生产，现在却不是这样。从个人角度讲，我认为应该向中国征税，因为这已经不是自由贸易了。我会向中国征非常非常高的税，尽管这么做还是会有中国的产品进入美国，但是会给美国人创造就业机会。因为这不过是玩具，不是食用油，简单的要命，我们完全可以自己做，没理由跑到中国去。只要他们的产品进来，我会征非常非常高的税。”
“我自己的公司对商业伙伴就是很友好，我们的国家也是个友好的国家，可是这个国家遇到的问题是中国正在把我们钱吸走。更糟糕的是，他们还把钱借给我们。所以，他们挣我们的钱，然后借给我们让他继续挣走？这样，我认识很多中国人，他们认为我们是世界上最愚蠢的SB。他们完全知道我们的商务代表在做什么，他们在我们背后哈哈大笑，他们挣我们的钱，再借给我们。想想吧，他们进入这个行业，把钱挣走，一同带走的还有就业机会。然后再借钱给我们，因为他们在买我们的国债。这太荒唐了。事实是，你应该向中国征税，重重地征税。你有了钱怎么还会出现贸易赤字呢？美国几乎在任何一个产业领域都有贸易赤字。当然，他们还会继续和我们做生意，但不会那么多了，因为税赋太重。那么我们国家的一些产业就会复兴，就会开始生产一些产品。这才是一个国家的生存之道。”
“我认为中国最终还是会和美国一样强大，我们目前还是世界最大的经济体，我们还是世界的老大。可是你知道吗？十年之后，我们不会再是老大了，因为是我们成就了中国成为老大。不，现在还不晚，我们要向中国征税，更精确地定义自由贸易。当然，你可以说福特等公司在中国做生意很愉快，可是我可以说出更多公司在中国举步维艰。我们要向中国征税，这样我们可以实现3个目的：1，大大增加收入；2，你可以平衡双边贸易；3，你为这个国家增加了就业机会。”
这篇文章是对其以上言论的批判。
亲爱的特朗普先生：
你是一位杰出的商人，那些点缀在曼哈顿的著名建筑物证明了你的成功，然而你在近期抨击中国的行为降低了自己的身份。我们生活在一个美好的世界中，部分原因是中国从共产主义的噩梦中已经走出。这个速度如此之快，以至于你还希望用居高临下的姿态与这个依然贫穷的国家谈话。
你的问题，也是你被解雇的原因，在于你的想法显示出你对于富裕和贫穷经济体的运作规律、货币的原始作用、相对优势在提升全球经济中的作用等方面的知识少得可怜。所以你没必要去起诉我非法辞退你，让我解释解释你被解雇的原因。
首先，你没完没了地重复一个错误的假设，就是中国的金融当局人为地设定了一个弱势的汇率政策。这彻底暴露出你是一个口无遮拦冒昧的家伙。
实际上，你不知道，或许是不明白的是，中国自从1994年就把人民币和美元汇率并轨。从那时起，中国做了很多很多其它国家做过的事情，目的就是让它的货币与美元接轨。
简单来说，人民币之所以疲软，是因为美元疲软。如果美元坚挺，那么人民币也会同样坚挺。在我们生活的这个可悲的不兑换纸币的年代，所有的货币只不过是一种概念。人民币汇率之所以这么低，就是因为两国政府从2000年以来就错误地预测美元会贬值。
你对于如此重要的事实的忽略，就已经是一个完全合理的解雇理由。但是你的问题还很多，都是与货币有关的问题。
作为一个建筑商，你最根本的表达方式是英尺、英寸或者平方英尺。但是设想一下，假如一英尺的实际长度每天、每小时、每秒钟都在不断地变化，就像美元针对人民币的价值一样。当然，你仍然可能继续建造伟大的建筑物，但是建筑物的数量会更少，成本会更高，（所有的数学家都要为一英尺的长度不断变化付出代价）而且还会貌似无辜地犯下致命的建筑错误。
尽管在布什和奥巴马执政期间，美元作为主要货币的角色越来越淡化，但是对中国人来说，把人民币与世界储备货币挂钩是为商品标价并进行国际贸易的最好方法。贸易最终的行为还是以物易物，因此用美元定义其价值的货币来为商品标价，是促进贸易的最好手段。
然而，你依然执念于与美元挂钩的人民币贬值会让中国商品在世界市场上有更大的吸引力。为了让我们了解这个理论为什么是错误的，我们还是用你那些美轮美奂建筑物中的豪华公寓来举例吧。
当然，1英尺的长度不会变化，但让我们假设它会变化，比如现在1英尺等于6英寸，而不是12英寸。起初，你的房产似乎迅速的增值了，因为你原来4000平方英尺的公寓现在则是16000平方英尺。你房产的价格，相对于这个新面积来说，迅速地下降了，直到有购买意愿的人在房间里走一圈，发现所谓16000平方英尺的面积其实在常规概念中就是4000平方英尺。
就像你无法用英尺缩水的概念来糊弄你的客户，中国人也无法用贬值的人民币来糊弄它的客户。如果人民币贬值，为了确保产品可以销售出去的运费、劳动力成本和进口的原材料成本必然会上升。简而言之，如果奥巴马总统决定让英尺的概念缩水，他所获得的收益决不会比以前更多。我们最终还是要以物易物的，货币仅仅是一个衡量标准，如果美元或者人民币贬值，最简单的结果是我们需要更多的美元和人民币来做同样的事情。
当然，困扰你的不仅仅是中国的货币政策，你对他们为我们制造的那些“玩意儿”也很反感，更不用说你从中国购买的那些用来建造豪华的地标型建筑物的“玩意儿”。你更希望由美国人来制造这些“玩意儿”。为了做到这一点，你希望对中国商品征收25％的关税。
这也是你犯的一个错误，即被解雇的一个原因，这显示了你在很多方面的短视行为。实际上，拥有一所特朗普房产对大部分美国人来说是成功的标志，但是现实中的大部分美国人并非生来就有如此财力。
谢谢，然而，鉴于从中国进口的商品提高了我们的生活质量，美国人因此有了更多的储蓄和投资，最终才可以具备购买你的公寓的财力。为中国商品设置进口障碍，不但剥夺了美国人理财的自由权，还削弱了他们积累财富的能力。
而且，缺少了这些你也有机会购买的中国进口商品，你的房地产成本必然会上升。这会损害你的收益，同时让你积累资本继续扩张自己房地产帝国的道路困难重重。
对此，你或许会说，那又怎么样？你已经足够富有了，不再需要外部投资。但即使真的如此，你的立场依然是极为短视的。
实际上，在你渴望将中国的生产就业岗位夺回时，你忘记了中国依然是一个相当贫穷的国家。中国生产工人的日均工资只够在美国星巴克买一杯拿铁咖啡。
假如这些就业岗位被安排在美国本土，为了确保产品的价格依然具有竞争力，美国人必然要大幅度降低自己的工资水平。在几十年的全球化行为之后，我们向海外输送了数百万就业岗位，其目的就是为了让美国劳动力更多地进入到高工资收入、低体力投入的行业中。
总之，我们的确可以在美国生产各种产品，但是如果这样做，我们就要付出美国与中国同样贫穷的代价。你的“买下美国”理论会把你淘汰出商业圈，不管你如何大声疾呼。“你被解雇了！”特朗普地产在贫穷的美国不会有市场。
幸运的是，我们恐怕不会遵循你的政策指引。我们大部分人都明白，中国的崛起提高了我们的生活品质，增加了我们创造财富的机会，就像历史上不断演变的劳动力分工那样。鉴于你没有理解这一点，而且还大言不惭地吹嘘自己的理论，你被解雇了！
原文：
Dear Mr. Trump:
As prominent of a businessman as you are, and your buildings which dot the Manhattan landscape speak to your prominence, your recent bashing of China subtracts from your stature. We surely live in a wonderful world for China to have risen from the communist dead so quickly such that you feel the need to talk this still very poor country down.
The problem, and this explains your firing, is that your musings reveal a shocking lack of knowledge about how rich and poor economies work, the purpose of currencies, and the role of comparative advantage in lifting all economic boats. So that you don’t sue for wrongful termination, let me explain your dismissal.
For one, almost like a broken record, you repeat with great regularity the false assumption that China’s monetary authorities are issuing an artificially weak currency. The mere suggestion reveals that you’ve blatantly talked out of turn.
Indeed, what you don’t acknowledge, or perhaps don’t understand, is that since 1994 China has pegged its yuan to the dollar. Basically China has done what countless other countries do, and that’s been to measure its currency in dollar terms.
In short, China’s yuan is weak because the dollar is weak. If the dollar were strong, so would be the yuan. All currencies are concepts in the unfortunate world we live in of fiat money, and the Chinese currency is way too cheap precisely because the two presidential administrations since 2000 have successfully and wrongly overseen the dollar’s devaluation.
That you continue to miss this essential truth is a fireable offense on its own, but there’s more to go over, including more on the matter of currencies.
As a builder, ultimately you express yourself in terms of feet and inches, and in your case, square footage. But imagine if the length of the foot changed each day, each hour, and each second, much as the value of the dollar does, and by proxy, the yuan. In your case, you could still build grand buildings, but you’d probably erect a great deal less at much greater cost (all the mathematicians needed to account for the constant change in the length of the foot) while innocently committing a great deal more building mistakes.
And while the dollar has proven a less than stellar currency to peg to under the Bush and Obama administrations, having a relationship with the world’s reserve currency is the best way for the Chinese to put a value on their goods so that they can be exchanged for others. Ultimately we trade products for products, and to express oneself in a currency whose value is defined by the dollar is the best way to facilitate those exchanges.
Still, you no doubt remain of the belief that a yuan weakened by its dollar peg somehow makes Chinese goods more attractive on the world market. To see why this isn’t true, let’s once again use the luxurious condos and apartments within your magnificent buildings.
Though the foot’s length doesn’t change, imagine if it did, and the foot suddenly represented 6, rather than 12 inches. At first glance, your properties would quickly appear even more valuable than they are; as in your 4,000 square foot apartments would suddenly be 16,000 square feet. All of a sudden your properties would look relatively cheap for their size, that is until customer walkthroughs reveal that what is 16,000 square feet in nominal terms is really only 4,000.
And just as you couldn’t fool your customers with a devaluation of the foot, neither can the Chinese trick theirs with a debased yuan. If the yuan weakens, the cost of shipping, labor and imported inputs necessary to make saleable goods must rise. In short, there’s no benefits gained from devaluation anymore than you would benefit if President Obama decided to shorten the foot. We once again trade products for products, money is the measuring stick, and if the dollar or yuan cheapens, this will ultimately reflect itself in a higher dollar or yuan price.
Of course it’s not just China’s currency policies that bother you. You’re also troubled by all the “things” they make for us, not to mention all the “things” you buy from them on the way to creating your amazing real estate landmarks. You’d rather Americans make those “things.” To remedy this, you’d like to impose a 25% tariff on Chinese goods.
This too is a fireable offense because it reveals a great deal of shortsightedness on your part. Indeed, owning a Trump property is for most Americans a sign that they’ve made it, but it’s also true that most Americans aren’t born with the cash to buy a Trump condo.
Thanks, however, to Chinese imports that raise our standard of living, Americans are able to save and invest more of their earnings on the way to eventually having the means to buy from you. To put up barriers to Chinese goods is not only to rob Americans of their liberty, but it’s to also take from them a greater ability to amass wealth.
Furthermore, absent these Chinese imports that you’ve acknowledged purchase of, your cost of building would certainly rise. This would harm your profits, and with reduced profits would come a reduced ability on your part to access capital on the way to expanding your impressive real estate empire.
To that you may say so what, you’re so rich that you don’t need outside investors, but even if true, your stance would remain extraordinarily shortsighted.
Indeed, in your desire to bring back those manufacturing jobs in China, you forget that China remains a staggeringly poor country. The average daily manufacturing wage in China would buy a Starbuck’s latte in the United States.
So assuming these jobs were to return to the U.S., in order to fill them Americans almost by definition would have to take huge pay cuts to make for you what others can far more cheaply. Over decades of globalization, we’ve surely sent millions of jobs overseas, only to have the U.S. labor force participation rate increase alongside higher paying jobs that are less physically stressful.
Basically, we could make in America what you want, but to do so we’d have to consign much of the country to Chinese levels of poverty to get there. In short, your “Buy American” program would put you out of business more quickly than you could exclaim, “You’re Fired!” Trump properties won’t sell in a poor America.
Luckily, however, we’re not about to follow your policy lead. Most of us understand that China’s rise has increased our living standards and our ability to create wealth, much as the expanded division of labor has throughout history. For not understanding this, but talking about it as though you do, You’re Fired. |
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发表于 2010-12-27 13:04
