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本帖最后由 下个月 于 2011-3-6 17:14 编辑
【标题】如果20世纪30年代中日和解，历史会发生什么转变？
【原文链接】http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/military-history/what-if-china-japan-made-peace-1930s-5406.html
【译文链接】http://www.ptfcn.com/ptfcn/l/584/
【原文标题】What if China and Japan Made Peace in the 1930's?
【正文】
转载者的话：我们要坚决将中国这棵有可能破坏世界平衡的毒苗扼杀在萌芽之中！
不行？
那就试着用各种办法让中国变得更象我们吧！
还是不行？
那就干脆玩一玩穿越，假设如果当年中国人没有将日本人撵出去，而是乖乖顺从了日本人的统治，成了日本人俯首帖耳的小弟会怎么样吧！
至少，日本人比中国人要更听话一些！
Initially, Japan saw itself as the champion of Asia against Western Imperialism being the most advanced Asian nation at the time. Eventually that mutated into a rabid Yamato-race cult. It's argued that Chang Kai Shek never wanted to directly fight the Japanese. He wanted an Asian Co-prosperity Sphere where China could play second fiddle to a Greater Japan (including Manchuria) but remain independent.
一开始，日本自认为是抵抗西方帝国主义的英勇战士，是当时亚洲最先进的国家。而这最终演变成了一种狂热的对自身大和民族的崇拜。有一种观点认为，蒋介石从没真的想过要抗击日本。他想的是，在亚洲建立一个共荣圈，而中国可以在其中当老二，大日本帝国则做头把交椅（包括满洲），而中国依旧是独立自主的。
Suppose political forces turned out differently, and Japan followed through on its theoretical position of being the champion of Asia things would have turned out very differently. The Asian Co-prosperity Sphere would likely have defeated the USA in the Pacific with its great manpower and resources and taken Hawaii (no American century). Even Russian Far East would have fallen. Western forces would have been kicked out of South East Asia. Invasion would be conceivable against Australia and eventually British Indian Empire.
如果中国当年的政治格局向另一个方向发展，而日本继续维持着亚洲老大的位置，历史会变的很不一样。亚洲共荣圈或许能够凭借丰富的人力和资源，在太平洋上打败美利坚合众国，并且占领夏威夷（也没有美国世纪了）。甚至是俄罗斯，它也将在远东遭遇失败。西方势力将会被踢出东亚。入侵澳大利亚倒是有可能的，而最后是英国人控制下的印度。
At this point, British India could well face a rebellion. Russia would collapse from the two front war. Third Reich would win. UK would be "Finlandized" at best. Israel would never exist. In other words, you wouldn't have a post-WW2 decolonization. You would have a para-WW2 decolonization.
就在这时，英国统治下的印度可能会需到一场反叛。俄罗斯会在两场前线战争中毁灭。德意志第三帝国会赢。英国最多将会被“芬兰化”。以色列不会存在。换句话说，你不会看到各个殖民地在二战前政治独立（非殖民地化），而是会看到各个殖民地于二战后政治独立。
Then at the end, the most powerful states in the world would be:
Third Reich (including big chunks of Russia)
Greater Japan
USA
With all three roughly equal in power -- possibly a more stable equilibrium than USA / Soviet Union before or USA / China now. China and India would be much lesser powers.
而在最后，世界上最强的几大势力会是：
德意志第三帝国（包括现俄罗斯的大块版图）
大日本帝国
美国
它们的实力大致等同——或许这三大势力还要比早年的苏联或美国以及如今的中国或美国还有稳定均衡。中国和印度的力量会稍弱一些。
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评论翻译
siegecrossbow
Yellow peril??? Seriously though this is about as likely as Poland taking over the Soviet Union during the 1930s.
黄祸？这事听起来就像想想波兰在20世纪30年代接管苏联。
Roger604
I don't think so. China's resources and manpower would have been an incredible combination with Japan's technology and leadership. If Japan was able to take SE Asia and threaten Hawaii / Australia while devoting most of their forces fighting China, imagine if China instead allied with Japan after a peace deal.
我不这么认为。中国的物力和人力若和日本的技术和领导能力联合，会爆发出惊人的力量。如果日本能够占据东南亚而威胁夏威夷/澳大利亚，而同时大部分力量都在攻打中国，那么我猜想或许中国会颁布和平政策，并且与日本结盟。
rhino123
Unless communism don't exist and that Mao Zedong was not in existence, there will be no way CHina would make peace with Japan at that time. China was actually being bullied by all greater powers toward at the end of the Qing dynasty up till the start of WWII, and Japan was one of the country that had bullied her. Chinese people do not like the Japanese. The invasion and creation of a puppet state in Manchuria had resulted in many students demonstration in all parts of China.
除非共产主义不存在，毛泽东也不存在，否则当时的中国绝不会跟日本善罢甘休。实际上从清朝末年到二战初期，中国被所有比它更强的势力欺辱过，而日本是欺凌中国的国家之一。中国人可不是日本人。正为了反抗各国的侵略和满洲的傀儡政权,在中国各地爆发了学生的示威行走。
So it is not possible for China to actually allied with Japan, especially with Japan in parts of China. We have also to look at the character of the chinese people and the leaders of the chinese and not just Chiang Kai Shek.
中国不可能和日本联盟，尤其是当日本已侵略了一部分中国领土时。我们应该好好看看中国人的国民性格和中国的领导者们，而不是蒋介石。
solarz
If you had any sense of history, you would not make such a ridiculous supposition. Popular sentiment was vastly anti-Japanese from the moment they established the puppet state of Manchuria. "Allying" yourself with an invader is called "surrender", and the Chinese people would never have accepted it!
如果你有点历史观，你就不会做出这么可笑的假设。自从日本人在满洲建立傀儡政权，民众的主流情感就一直是反日的。和侵略者“结盟”，那叫“投降”。中国人可绝不会接受这个！
Mr T
That's not right. In many ways Japan modeled itself on the foreign powers that opened it up, and it wanted an empire of its own. That's why it plowed into Korea so quickly. It wasn't "defending" the state from anyone.
(回应lz)
不对。在许多方面，日本按照外国的样子改造自己并且对外开放，但日本本身还是想在国内继续君权统治。这也解释了为什么日本这么快就攻入了朝鲜。这事儿可不是什么“保卫”国家抵抗外族。
Theoretically it might have been possible for China and Japan to make peace, but after all the violence the last thing that would have happened was some sort of alliance. Had peace been reached, that would have required the overthrow of the imperialist faction of Japanese politics/reassertion of civilian control over the military. They wouldn't have exchanged one war for another one.
理论上讲中国或许可能和日本讲和，不过毕竟暴力事件曾经发生。如果两国讲和，之后也必然要推翻日本君政界的贵族集团对于日本民众乃至军队的控制。他们不可能把一场战争变为另一场战争。
Why would China-Japan want to invade Australia? To engage in some sort of purging of Caucasians from the Pacific? To form some sort of Asian Empire?
Similarly why would India be attacked? Certainly not to liberate anyone. More conquering?
为嘛中日要入侵澳大利亚？为了把高加索人逐出太平洋？为了搞出一位全亚洲的帝王？
同样的为什么要入侵印度？我很确信这不会解放任何人？难道仅为了征服更多的地方？
samba
America had 20+ aircraft carriers towards the end of the war, with supplie and aircraft to match
Only if china had carried out rapid industrialisation like stalin did could china have been a decisive ally to japan during the 1940s
美国有20多架飞机运输供给，还有很多战机，它们帮助了美国结束这场战争。
只有当中国快速地实现了工业化，就像斯大林做的那样，中国才有可能在20世纪40年代与日本缔结决定性的同盟。
Banned Idiot
I think US already broke the Japanese codes and German codes, Roosevelt knew about Pearl Harbor but may have let it happen to propel and compell the public to override Congress and for USA to enter WWII (which ultimately benefited the USA the most, and got it out of the great depression)
But I think had Hitler not have betrayed the USSR, maybe today it would be Germany/Russia's world.
我认为美军其实已经破获了日本和德国的密电码，罗斯福之前直到了珍珠港事件，但却让它发生，以便推动民众推翻国会的决定并且使美国参与二战（二战最后以美国得利最多，而且通过参战，美国走出了经济不景气的局面）
不过我认为如果希特勒没有没有背叛苏联，或许今天已经使德国/俄罗斯人的天下了。
rhino123
That is not right. US is already on the route to recovery from the Great Depression on 1938 which is around 3 years to the time Japan attacked Pearl Harbour. Although on recovery, US is still basically quite poor at that time and the last time people wanted was a war, so if the US had long detected Japan's intention to attack her on the Pearl Harbour, she would have do whatever it takes to prevent it and prevent an all out war.
（回ls）这不对。美国在日本袭击珍珠港之前大约3年就已经开始逐步走出1938年经济危机的低迷了。不过虽然经济已经开始恢复，美国国内依然贫困而人们盼望打一场战争，所以如果美国当年长期监测到日本攻击珍珠港的意向，美国肯定已经尽其所能的保护了珍珠港并且尽可能的远离战争。
Plus it would be better business when the US could sell weaponries and hardware to both allies and axis forces without being directly involved in the war.
而且，如果美国仅仅销售武器和军备给同盟和轴心国，可能比直接卷入战争获益更大。
In my opinion, when WWII started, Germany was bound to fail... my reasoning was Germany's policy in wiping out all non-white races (especially the Jews) in order to purify the world or something like that. It is German against the entire world or at least, German against the entire West. Germany's population was really not the huge that they can do this without thinning their forces. Attack fo USSR only serve to quicken the effect. Otherwise, German would still fall.
我认为，当二战打响后，德国就注定要败了。。。这是因为德国为了净化世界或是其他什么的理由，颁布了消灭所有非白人种族（尤其是犹太人）的政策。这使德国成了与世界为敌的国家，或者至少是整个西方的敌人。德国人口并不庞大，因而他们可以进行种族清洗而不削弱自身实力。进攻苏联仅仅加速了德国失败的进程。即使德国没这么做，它也一样会战败。
bobcou
You would also have to revert about 30 years of educational history from the people of Japan. It was militaristic to begin with strict anti-Chinese sentiment within their educational books. Why? By 1900s, the Qing was about to just collapse, China was so backward and ineffective after centuries of isolation. Us the great Japan, on this little island with minuscule resources for our great empire, and China this backward land full of space and resources, why should they have it?
你应该回去好好复习日本30的历史教育。在教科书里充斥着浓浓的军国主义的反中情绪。为什么？在19世纪末20世纪初，清政府即将崩溃，中国在闭关锁国几个世纪后发展缓慢，软弱无力。我们大日本帝国，身处小岛而只有极少的资源，而中国这个发展缓慢的大陆却有丰富的资源，他们怎么配拥有这些？
hanqiang1011
The Chinese people will not bow to other races. So therefore, anyone who dares to step in the Chinese soils illegally will be opposed. Your event would never happen even back in the 1930s then. Remember Wang Jingwei the KMT traitor who made peace with the Jap and set up a Nanjing Government, died a terrible death as a traitor.
中国人绝不会向其他民族卑躬屈膝。因此，任何胆敢非法强占中国领土的人都会遭到反抗。Lz所言的事件绝不会再30年代发生。记着汪精卫身为卖国贼那悲惨的死状——这个国民党的卖国贼曾和日本讲和，还建立了南京政府。
ww2buff（回复和敌人结盟是投降那位）
Offensive that anyone would have submitted to such a cruel and merciless enemy. I would rather die fighting then to accept that fate.
对于那些屈服于残忍凶恶的敌人的家伙，我个人非常厌恶。我更愿意拼死战斗，然后尽人事听天命。
rhino123 （回ls）
Its not about whether the invader is kind and benevolent or cruel and merciless. It is about the sovereignity of a nation and the pride of a race.
反抗敌人与侵略者是善良的仁慈的还是残忍的凶恶的无关。这其实是关于神圣不可侵犯的国家权益和民族自尊心的事情。
solarz （这哥们的头像是六小龄童版的孙悟空，还有人用黑丝的照片做头像，在这个论坛里很有可能有一些中国人）
Actually, the cruelty/benevolence of the invader is a pretty big factor too. The Qing were eventually accepted in part because they were relatively benevolent toward the population.
其实敌人是仁慈还是凶恶也是个很大的因素。清朝最后接受了部分侵略，就是因为他们比起人民显得更亲切一些。
FarkTypeSoldier
Chinese would never accept peace with Japan in the 1930s, that time was Second Sino Japanese war. In fact before 1930s, the 1920s the Japanese had invaded the Northeast provinces of China, setting up a puppet government with Puyi as the Emperor of Manchuko. In actual fact, the heavy industries in the northeastern China were used to built war machines to enable the future invasion of whole of China.
中国绝不会在30年代接受和日本和解，那是中日第二次战争。实际上在30年代前，20年代日本就已侵占了中国的东北，利用溥仪建立了满洲国傀儡政权。实际上，中国东北的重工业曾一度被应用于制造军备，以备日后侵略全中国之需。
Being said that, since the invasion already begun in 1920s, in the era of 1930s, ever will the Chinese make peace with Japan!
而且，自从日本在20年代开始侵略，到30年代，中国从未和日本真正和解！ |
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发表于 2011-3-6 13:45
