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【中文标题】中国通胀，祸害世界
【原文标题】Inflation in China Poses Big Threat to Global Trade
【登载媒体】纽约时报
【原文链接】http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/18/business/global/18yuan.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&hp 【译者】yangfuguang 【翻译方式】人工 【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译文】
SHANGHAI — As the United States and Europe struggle to get their economies rolling again, China is having the opposite problem: figuring out how to keep its revved-up growth engine from generating runaway inflation. 上海报道—虽然美国和欧洲在竭力提振自己的经济，但是中国却有着不一样的问题：如何通过加剧膨胀来加速经济发展。
The latest sign that things were moving too fast came on Sunday, when China’s central bank ordered the biggest banks to set aside more cash reserves. 最近一些迹象显示，形势发展太快了，因为此时中国央行开始命令商业银行保持跟多的现金储备。
The move essentially reduces the amount of money available for loans, and is an attempt to cool down the economy. It follows the government announcement on Friday that China’s economy was growing at an annual rate of 9.7 percent, by far the strongest performance by any of the world’s biggest economies. 该行动最终意味着贷款额度下降，试图使经济降温。这个决定是在政府周五宣布中国经济增长在9.7%时作出的，这是目前为止在世界范围内表现最好的（经济增长）。
Because China is now the world’s second largest economy, after the United States, and because the country has been a leading source of global growth during the last two years, money problems here can reverberate from Wal-Mart to Wall Street and the world beyond. 因为中国已经是仅次于美国的第二大经济体，因为中国过去两年一直是世界经济增长的引擎，中国央行的决定带来的影响会从沃尔玛传到华尔街。
High inflation endangers China’s status as the low-cost workshop for the world. And if the government’s efforts to fight inflation cause the economy to stumble, that will cloud the outlook for international businesses — whether multinationals like General Electric or copper miners in Chile — that have been counting on China for growth. 高速的膨胀威胁了中国作为世界廉价工厂的地位。如果政府出手对付通货膨胀，那么可能影响到国际贸易——无论是跨国公司如通用，还是智利的铜矿——它们都要依赖中国市场。
Inside China, inflation also poses a threat to social stability, a particular worry for Beijing, especially since authoritarian governments in North Africa and the Middle East have become the focus of popular uprisings.
“China’s inflation is a big concern, and actual numbers are worse than officially reported,” said Carmen M. Reinhart, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
She says Beijing is engaged in an economic tug of war, trying to encourage sustainable growth while struggling to control inflation. 而在中国国内，通货膨胀也对社会稳定产生影响，这是北京很担心的事情，尤其是北非及中东的政府成为反对的目标。Carmen M. Reinhart是位于华盛顿的彼得森国际经济研究院的经济学家，她表示，通货膨胀是中国很在意的，而且实际数值比官方公布的要严重些。她说，中国经济实际陷入一种微妙，既要保持经济增长，又要抑制通胀在一定范围内。
Food prices are soaring, and the government said on Friday that the consumer price index in March had risen 5.4 percent, its sharpest increase in nearly three years. Hoping to tame inflation, in the last six months Beijing has tightened restrictions on bank lending and raised interest rates on loans (to discourage borrowing) and deposits (to encourage savings). 食品疯涨，周五官方表示消费品价格指数上升了5.4%在三月，这是最近三年的最大涨幅。期待抑制膨胀，在过去半年，中国收紧了银根，提高了贷款利率（限制贷款），并且提高了存款利率（鼓励存款）。
The decision on Sunday to raise the capital reserve ratio for banks, to 20.5 percent of their cash, was the fourth such increase this year. 周五提高准备金率至20.5%的决定是本年度第四次提高。
The government has also increased agricultural subsidies to curb food prices, and tried to forbid some Chinese companies from raising consumer prices. These efforts stand in contrast to those in the United States, where inflation is low (the underlying annual inflation rate was 1.2 percent last month) and where the debate centers on how much to stimulate the economy given the size of the deficit. 政府也通过提高农业补贴来抑制食品价格，而且禁止数家中国公司提高消费品价格。这些和美国的做法形成对照，美国通胀率低（上个月的通胀率为1.2%），而争论的焦点也是如何减少赤字。
Inflation is also running low in Europe, where some countries are imposing harsh austerity measures to pare their budget gaps.
But analysts say the results of this economic management have been mixed. Growth has begun to moderate from its torrid pace of about 10 percent annual growth but inflation has become worse. 通货膨胀在欧洲也很轻微，欧洲很多国家在实行通货紧缩的政策来减少预算鸿沟。 但分析人士表示，这些经济政策的结果是复杂的。经济从高峰时的10%的增长降低目前水平，但通货膨胀也跟着加剧了。
For example, housing prices continue to climb even though Beijing has long promised to curb the property market and to spend billions of dollars over the next few years on affordable housing.
The average apartment in central Shanghai now costs more than $500,000. Even in second-tier cities like Chengdu, in central China, the price of a typical home costs about 25 times the average annual income of residents. 例如，房产价格继续攀升，尽管北京许久以来承诺要抑制房价，并且在未来几年花费数十亿美元来建设经适房。 在上海市中心的普通公寓已经涨到了50万美元。即使在二线城市像成都，在华中，一般家庭住房价格也是居民年均收入的25倍。
Analysts say too much of the country’s growth continues to be tied to inflationary spending on real estate development and government investment in roads, railways and other multibillion-dollar infrastructure projects. 分析人士表示，中国经济对房地产的依赖性很强，政府在公路，铁路等基建设施又投入了大笔资金。
In the first quarter of 2011, fixed asset investment — a broad measure of building activity — jumped 25 percent from the period a year earlier, and real estate investment soared 37 percent, the government said on Friday.
Some of the inflationary factors, like global commodity and food prices, may be beyond Beijing’s ability to influence. Gasoline prices have also jumped sharply, in line with global oil prices. As the world’s largest car market, China’s demand for fuel is soaring, and gasoline prices are close to $4.50 a gallon, up from $3.82 a gallon in late 2009. 在2011第一季度，固定资产投资——主要是建设活动——比上一年上涨了25%，房产投资则急剧上升了37%。一些通胀因子，例如全球的商品和食品价格可能会影响中国。为了与国际接轨，中国的汽油价格也上升了。作为全球最大汽车市场，中国对石油的需求暴涨。汽油价格达到了4.5美元，而2009年底还是3.82每加仑。
Rising food prices, meanwhile, are showing up in various ways — including higher prices at fast-food chains, like Master Kong, which in January raised the price of its popular instant noodles by about 10 percent. 食品价格上涨也以不同的方式呈现出来，像康师傅在一月就提高了其方便面的零售价格约10%。
China’s current supercharged boom began in early 2009, during the global financial crisis, when Beijing moved aggressively to increase growth with a $586 billion stimulus package and record lending by state-run banks. 中国最近强力的调控开始于2009年初，那时全球陷入金融危机，当时北京强力地提出了5860亿美元的经济刺激计划，而资金主要来自于银行。
The loose monetary policy, and big investments in local government projects, did revive economic growth. But even at the time there were already concerns about soaring property prices, undisciplined bank lending and the huge debts being amassed by local governments. 宽松的信贷政策以及对地方工程的巨大投资确实重振了经济。但即便是那时，也有一种担心，担心造成物价的上涨，混乱的银行体系以及地方政府的债务。
The fear among some experts is that the bubble will eventually burst, leading to a wave of nonperforming loans at the big state-owned Chinese banks, which have been the main financiers of the nation’s phenomenal growth dating to the economic reforms in the 1980s.
Some economists have begun to argue that high inflation may be around for some time. Here again, the tug of war is evident. 一些专家担心泡沫会破灭，国有银行的一系列的无息贷款是这个国家自1980年代以来主要的财政支持。一些经济学家担心，在未来某一天，通胀会来临。现在抑制则是证据。
To encourage the growth of a consumer market that will help meet the Chinese people’s demand to share the nation’s wealth, Beijing and many municipal governments have required employers to raise wages.
The government has raised minimum wages in the hope of reducing the big income gap between the rich and the poor, and the urban and rural. But higher wages drive up the costs of production, leading to higher prices. Some experts say rising wages may be an unavoidable inflationary force for years to come. 鼓励消费市场的扩张会帮助迎合中国人要求分享国家财富的心理，中央政府和很多市政府要求提升基本工资。中国已经提高了最低工资，以此缩小贫富差距，城乡差距。但是高工资提升了制造成本，导致高物价。一些专家认为，提高工资是未来一段时间通胀的原因之一。
“China is moving into a new era, a new norm,” said Dong Tao, an economist at Credit Suisse in Hong Kong. “In the previous decade, inflation was about 1.8 percent a year; in the next decade, it may be closer to 5 percent.” 香港瑞士信贷的经济学家说，中国进入了一个新纪元。在以前，通胀大约是1.8%每年，在未来十年，也许是每年5%。
The implications of such a shift are huge, not just for domestic consumers but perhaps even more so for exports. As wages and production costs rise, coastal factories are demanding higher prices for the goods they ship overseas. That means Americans, Europeans and other buyers will have to pay more for those goods or seek lower-cost suppliers elsewhere. In some cases, retailers are bidding for goods at prices the exporters consider too low. 这种改变的意义是巨大的，不仅对国内消费者，甚至对出口的影响更大。由于工资和生产成本增加，沿海工厂出口的产品的价格会提升。这就意味着美国、欧洲和其他买家就要花更多钱，或者寻求廉价的替代者。有时候，零售商必须就出口商认为的低价进行再提价。
“I hear that many Chinese exporters are rejecting orders from Wal-Mart and other Western retailers,” Mr. Tao said. “I’ve been covering the Chinese economy for a long time, and I’ve never heard that before.”
Many analysts say the government is going to have to do even more to slow the economy, through measures like placing additional restrictions on lending and continuing to raise interest rates, the textbook methods of fighting inflation by tightening the nation’s money supply. 陶先生说，我听说中国很多出口商拒绝沃尔玛和其它西方零售商的订单，我关注中国经济很久了，但是以前重来没有这种情况。很多分析人士表示，中国未来为了抑制经济可能做得更多，比如出台更加严格的借贷政策以及提高利率，目的是通过收紧银根来抗击通胀。
But the mixed results so far do not inspire widespread confidence. In fact, some experts say that despite the Communist Party’s efforts to manage the economy by committee, the absence of a top autonomous central banker — Beijing has no equivalent of the United States Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke — means no one actually has a hand on the growth throttle. 但是目前的复杂结果并没有期待中那样好。实际上，一些专家表示，尽管共产党努力管理经济，但是缺乏一个自治的中央银行——中国没有和美联储主席伯克南等价的人——意思说没有一个人可以按住增长的刹车。
“The roots of inflation were laid down after the financial crisis, with the stimulus policy,” said Zhang Weiying, a professor of economics at Peking University.
After a big stimulus, stamping out inflation is not easy, Professor Zhang said. “It may take a long time.”
Citizens like Wang Jianren, 56, a retiree in Shanghai, a bustling city of 20 million, say that over the years China has benefited from its rapid economic growth. But like so many here, he complains that inflation is beginning to erode those gains. 张维迎说，伴随着经济刺激机会，膨胀的祸根就此埋。在这样大规模经济刺激计划后，要想抑制通胀是很困难的，这需要时间。 而像在上海市这样2000万人口的城市中的普通市民王建仁（音）来说，过去他是这种大规模经济增长的受益者，但现在他表示通胀正在侵蚀这些所得。
“Prices have gone up a lot,” Mr. Wang said at an indoor vegetable market on Friday. “Unstable prices make people nervous and make society unstable. In this sense, our generation even has some nostalgia for Mao’s era.” 王先生说，价格上升太多，周五他在一个农贸市场这样表示。价格不稳使得人们紧张，社会不稳定，他说。在这样背景下，我们这时甚至有点怀念毛泽东时代。
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发表于 2011-5-2 18:35
这脸皮不是一般的厚。噢，是不是因为这个原因他们才是白种人啊！？
