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【原文标题】中国是解决美国就业问题的救星吗？
【中文标题】最惊人的人口危机：最新人口普查对中国独生子女政策的未来提出质疑
【登载媒体】福克斯新闻
【来源地址】http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/05/05/china-answer-americas-job-gloom/
【译 者】朱朱
【翻译方式】人工
【声 明】 本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译 文】
中国公司的资金堆积如山，准备着在世界各地投资。
当前，这些资金的大部分都流向了资源丰富却需要国外投资来改善基础设施的非洲国家。
但是，根据周三发布的一份报告，关于美国2009年投资情况的最新数据表明，只有23亿美元来自中国的直接投资在美国有效运作。
如果你发现流入美国的国外直接投资金额在任何时候都超过2万亿美元，那23亿美元这个数据就显得无足轻重了。
对美国最大的投资者仍然是巴西、日本和德国，而中国的投资金额还不如像沙特阿拉伯和韩国这样的国家。
这份报告分别送至美国亚洲协会、中美问题基辛格研究所伍德罗•威尔逊国际学者中心，报告在结论中毫不做作地指出应该对此采取何种措施。
它建议，让中国投资流入美国。
该研究认为，中国公司到2020年对外投资额能达到1万亿至2万亿美元。
这个报告的作者，经济学家罗森和哈内曼声称，“如果在接下来的十年里，中国对外投资总额中只有5%流入美国，那也是相当可观的。”
而且，他们认为，这些投资将在美国转化成成百上千的新的工作岗位。当然，这个前景能否实现也是存在问题的，该报告也肯定这种障碍的存在。
问题是：这样的投资能真正的被美国欢迎吗？或者可以这样说，政客会不会对来自中国的投资设立障碍？最近发生过的事情证明，这种情况是很可能发生的。
报告引用了中国一家石油公司——中海油曾于2005年尝试收购优尼科未果的案例。
报告认为，美国对诸如那场收购协议的政治反对已经是许多中国公司对投资美国望而却步。
罗森和哈内曼说，美国官员常常疑心太重。
他们说：“因此，政府官员怀疑，如果一家中国公司来到美国，那它一定是为了一些政治目的而来，而非单纯的获取经济利益。这个结论是不对的。如果我们想使美国的利益最大化，那么这些误解必须得到更正。”
当然，美国是存在许多关于中国的误解的。
但是，北京确实让美国觉得不值得信赖，因为北京并没有很好的行为记录可循。
工业间谍与侵犯版权的报道屡屡发生，这让北京的形象变成了不按规则出牌，这让美国感到自己的经济影响力常常被侵犯和破坏。
中国若想扫除这种担忧并建立互信仍需做很多事情。
报告认为并且建议美国应该处于国家安全的考虑仔细审查中国的投资，但是应该保护这种投资免受政治干涉的侵犯。
并且，报告主张美国官员在与中国的谈判中表现出更大的弹性，如，不要把中国对美投资的谈判与美国对华投资协议相挂钩。
报告称，否则，工作机会就不是流入美国，而是流入美国北美自由贸易区的邻居。
“三十年来，中国通过不考虑国外开放程度而逐渐对外国直接投资敞开大门变得越来越强大。美国也应该这样做，如果不冒险让中国公司在密歇根湖边建厂，那他们就会改去加拿大的安大略湖边建厂，如果不允许他们在美国的厄尔巴索建厂，他们就会去对面墨西哥的华雷斯建厂。”
美国面临着与20世纪80年代的日本一样的情况，那是，日本公司似乎有无数的资金准备买任何东西。
那一批日本公司现在雇佣了大约70万美国人，成为美国经济的重要组成部分。
美国与中国官员将于下周在华盛顿举行会谈。
报告敦促美国国会和白宫向来自中国的访问者们打开欢迎之门，因为他们能帮美国解决至关重要的就业问题。
【原 文】
Chinese companies have mountains of money ready to invest in the world.
At the moment, much of that money is going to resource-rich countries in Africa in need of investment to improve their infrastructure.
But according to a report released Wednesday, the latest U.S. statistics for 2009 show only $2.3 billion in Chinese direct investments in firms with operations in the United States.
That figure hardly registers when you consider that there is more than $2 trillion in foreign direct investments into the country at any time.
The big investors remain Britain, Japan and Germany, but China invests less than countries such as Saudi Arabia and South Korea.
The report for the Asia Society, the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars doesn’t pull its punches in its conclusions of what needs to be done.
It suggests letting the Chinese money pour in.
The study suggests that Chinese companies could be investing as much as $1 trillion to $2 trillion around the world by 2020.
“If just 5 percent of China's expected outflows target the United States over the coming decade, the numbers will be enormous," according to the report's authors, economists Daniel Rosen and Thilo Hanemann.
And that, they suggest, could translate into hundreds of thousands of new jobs in the States. Still, there is a problem with that scenario, a problem the report acknowledges.
Would such investment really be welcomed, or will politicians throw up barriers to it? Recent history suggests that could easily happen.
The report raises the case of Chinese oil company CNOOC's unsuccessful attempt to acquire Unocal in 2005.
It suggests political opposition to the deal such as this in the U.S. has made many Chinese companies wary of investing.
Rosen and Hanemann argue U.S. officials are often too suspicious.
"Therefore, they suspect that if a Chinese firm is coming to America, it must be for some political purpose rather than simply to make money. This conclusion is wrong, and if we are to maximize U.S. interests, such misapprehensions must be corrected," they said.
There are, of course, many “misapprehensions” about China.
But Beijing doesn’t, of course, have the best track record to fall back on in terms of its behavior, perceived or otherwise, by the U.S.
Reports of industrial espionage and copyright infringement are commonplace, painting a picture of a China that doesn’t play by the rules, and if anything wants to undermine the economic clout of the U.S.
China has got a lot to do to erase that concern and build trust.
The report acknowledges that and suggests the U.S. should carefully look at each Chinese investment in terms of national security concerns, but they should be “shielded” from political interference.
And it urges U.S. officials to show more flexibility in negotiations with, for instance, not trying to link them to reciprocal deals in China.
Otherwise, it warns jobs will likely go to America’s NAFTA neighbors.
"For 30 years, China has grown stronger by opening its door wider to FDI, irrespective of overseas openness. The United States should do the same, or risk Chinese firms setting up plants in Ontario instead of Michigan, or Juarez instead of El Paso," the report said.
The U.S. has faced the same scenario with Japan back in the 1980s, when their companies seemed to be buying up everything.
Those same Japanese companies now employ an estimated 700,000 Americans and are an important part of the economy.
U.S. and Chinese officials meet next week in Washington.
The report urges the U.S. Congress and the White House to roll out the welcome mat for their Chinese visitors….because jobs are at stake. |
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发表于 2011-5-6 17:53
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