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【中文标题】拉登死后留下的四个问题
【原文标题】4 Questions He Leaves Behind
【登载媒体】纽约时报
【来源地址】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=3096038&rpid=4397944&ordertype=0&page=1#pid4397944
【译者】逆卷炎灵(三流翻译,请多指教)
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用,未经AC或译者许可,不得转载。
【译文】
4 Questions He Leaves Behind
By JOE NOCERA
拉登死后留下的四个问题
文: By JOE NOCERA
To give the devil his awful due, Osama bin Laden was the greatest terrorist of the modern age. He took what had been disparate, disorganized terrorist groups and reshaped them into a disciplined and immensely ambitious organization, Al Qaeda, with the singular goal of waging jihad on the West in general and the United States in particular. Its terrorist prowess was never more evident than on that horrible day of Sept. 11, 2001. Now that Bin Laden is dead, the most pressing question we need to ask is: Will his death make a difference? It is, of course, symbolically important that the United States hunted down the man responsible for the 9/11 attacks. And it will have political ramifications for President Obama, which I leave to others to debate.
是什么让恶魔们恐惧,奥萨马•本•拉登是当今最大的恐怖枭雄。他把那些松散的、无组织的恐怖组织聚在一起,把他们改造成一个宏伟的有纪律、有目标的恐怖组织——基地组织,它唯一的目标就是对西方进行圣战,尤其是美国。2001年9月11日那一天,那些恐怖分子展现了他们的超凡技术。既然本拉登已死,我们不得不问的一个严重问题是:他的死有影响么?从他一手造成的911恐怖袭击的层面上来说,答案当然是“是的”,美国政府因此杀死他了。这对奥巴马总统来说也是一笔政绩,我留给他人评论这点。
But the thing that matters most right now is whether the world today is safer than it was on Saturday, when Bin Laden was still among the living. Though it is not an easy question to answer, it seems to me that there are four areas where it ought to be asked:
但现在最重要的问题是这个世界是否比本拉登活着的时候更加安全了呢?尽管这不是个容易回答的问题,我觉得有四个方面可以反思:
THE ARAB SPRING The commentariat was quick to note the delicious irony that Bin Laden’s death coincided with the citizen uprisings in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and elsewhere. The Arab spring has shown that millions of Muslims have zero interest in the hard-line theocracy favored by Al Qaeda. What they yearn for instead is freedom and democracy. Bin Laden’s death merely put an exclamation point on the fact that his influence in the region had diminished considerably in the decade since 9/11.
阿拉伯之春有人说本拉登的死正好比埃及、突尼斯、利比亚等地的公民起义,评论家们很快就注意到这是在扯淡。阿拉伯之春表明了数以万计的穆斯林对基地组织推崇的垃圾神权政体毫无兴趣,相反,他们向往民主与自由。在911往后的日子里,本拉登对这个地区的影响力显而易见的下降了不少,他的死不过让这一事实更加确定。
But Lawrence Wright, the author of “The Looming Tower,” a Pulitzer-Prize winning book about Al Qaeda, goes a step further. He’s convinced that Bin Laden’s death could help prevent the Arab spring from sputtering out.
但《阴影之塔》(The Looming Tower,一本关于基地组织的书,曾获美国普利策奖)一书的作者,劳伦斯•怀特(Lawrence Wright),做出了深度评论。他确信本拉登的死,会阻止阿拉伯之春的继续蔓延。
“As long as he was around, he created an alternative narrative,” said Wright. “When the moment comes that the democratic movement falters — and there always is such a moment — Al Qaeda could say: We told you so. The fact that he is gone makes it more likely for the Arab spring to complete its reformation cycle.”
“只要他存在着,他就能给人们另一种希望”,怀特说:“当民主运动遭遇挫折的时候,实际上经常有挫折,基地组织就会说:‘你看,我们早就说过,民主运动不行’……他死去的事实为阿拉伯之春完成其改造周期提供了可能性。”
THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN Ever since he came into office, President Obama has insisted that our presence in Afghanistan was directly related to the ongoing threat from Al Qaeda. Ten years in, though, the war has no end in sight and dwindling public support. Liberal groups like the Brave New Foundation are already saying that Bin Laden’s death has “ended the rationale” for the war.
阿富汗战争
自从奥巴马总统来到白宫,他总坚持说,我们在阿富汗的存在正是由于来自基地组织的威胁。但是,十年过去了,这场战斗看不见底,公众支持越来越少。像新勇基金会这样的自由派团体已经在有了这样的论调,本拉登的死已经让这场战斗“出师无名”。
It’s not just liberals, either. James Lindsay, a senior vice president of that establishment bulwark Council on Foreign Relations, wrote that the president could use Bin Laden’s death to say that America’s “goal has been achieved” — and use it as an excuse to wind down the war. Whether the president will take such a step is unclear. But it’s now at least feasible.
并不是只有自由主义者这样说,对外关系委员会的一名高级副总裁詹姆斯•林德赛(James Lindsay)说道,总统可以利用本拉登的死宣告美国已经完成目标,利用这个借口平息这场战争。总统是否会这样做还不清楚,但至少这个计划不赖。
TERRORISM ITSELF Michael Nacht, a former Defense Department official who now teaches at the University of California, Berkeley, believes that Bin Laden’s death will diminish the terrorist threat to the Unites States. Nacht compared terrorism in the Bin Laden era to a “fatal disease.” Now, he says, it’s more like a chronic illness: “It can still cause you trouble, but it’s not a mortal theat.”
恐怖主义自身
现在贝克莱加利福尼亚大学任教的一名前国防部官员迈克尔•耐奇特(Michael Nacht),相信拉登的死会减少恐怖主义的威胁。耐奇特相信本拉登的死会减少恐怖主义对美国的威胁,他将拉登时代的恐怖主义比作“致命疾病”,现在,他说,更像是个慢性病了,“它仍然会惹些麻烦,但并不再是致命的了”
But this may turn out to be wishful thinking. The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that at the time of the 9/11 attacks, Al Qaeda had maybe 200 members; today, it is vaster and “more far-reaching than before the U.S. sought to take it down.” Independent offshoots have sprung up in Yemen, Somalia and elsewhere. New terrorist leaders include Nasir al-Wahishi, who leads Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and Anwar al-Awlaki, an American-born cleric who has been involved in several terrorist plots, including the attempt to blow up a plane on Christmas Day in 2009. Although America does a much better job of rooting out planned attacks, the threat remains very real, with or without Bin Laden.
但这可能只是个美好的愿望。华尔街报社报道911的时候,基地组织才200人,今天,它更加壮大,而且比美国想抓住它的时候更加逍遥。在也门、索马里及其他地方,独立的分支机构不断兴起。新的恐怖主义领导人,如Nasir al-Wahishi,领导阿拉伯半岛的基地组织,Anwar al-Awlaki,美国出生的传教士,卷入了多起恐怖活动,包括试图在09年圣诞节炸毁一家飞机。尽管美国很在行破坏这些袭击策划,但威胁仍然存在,不管有没有拉登。
RELATIONS WITH THE MUSLIM WORLD Let’s face it: Much of the Muslim world today is deeply distrustful of anything America does. For this, certainly, a good portion of the blame goes to the misguided invasion of Iraq and its aftermath — which, in turn, was a response to 9/11 and Bin Laden. In that sense, America played right into Bin Laden’s hands.
与穆斯林世界的关系
让我们直面:今天大多数穆斯林世界的人对美国做的事都深深地表示怀疑。当然,对于此,一大部分责备之声源自对伊拉克的失误入侵与战后的种种事情,最终,还是对911及本拉登的回应。在这个层面上,美国抓本拉登是对的。
The clock can’t be turned back just because he’s dead. The distrust remains strong. A friend who recently returned from to Turkey — a Muslim country that is ostensibly a close ally — told me that the Turkish media were united in their virulent opposition to NATO’s actions in Libya, even though those actions were intended to prevent a cruel dictator from killing his own people.
时间不会仅仅因为他的死而回流。这种不信任会持续很久。一个从土耳其回来的朋友说,土耳其的媒体团结一致,反对北约在利比亚的行动,即使这些行动旨在组织一个杀自己人的残酷独裁者。
“The image of Westerners dropping bombs on Muslims is very hard for Muslims to accept,” he said.
他说:“美国向穆斯林们丢炸弹的画面很难让那些人接受。”
One hopes that this is not Bin Laden’s enduring legacy. But that’s something only we can fix.
希望这不会成为本拉登死后的遗留问题,希望我们能够解决。 |
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