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本帖最后由 逆卷炎灵 于 2011-5-15 22:55 编辑
【中文标题】中国人口增长缓慢，变化巨大
【原文标题】China’s Population Growing Slowly, Changing Fast
【登载媒体】Science
【来源地址】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=3097580&;rpid=4430164&ordertype=0&page=1#pid4430164
【译者】逆卷炎灵（三流翻译，请多指教）
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译文】
China’s population has long been something of a magic number for the rest of the world. Marketers rhapsodize about selling to 1.3 billion consumers, while agronomists worry about whether those 1.3 billion mouths will have enough to eat. Preliminary figures from the 2010 census released last week show that the country is still growing. But the census also reveals trends that could reshape the world’s view of China—and perhaps even trigger changes in the government’s controversial one-child policy.
对于其他国家来说，中国的人口数目一直以来十分神奇，如魔法一般。商家们痴狂于卖东西给13亿消费者，而农学家们则在担心13亿张嘴巴能否填满。据上周2010人口普查初步统计，这个国家的人口仍然在涨。但这次人口普查很可能会重塑世界对中国的看法，甚至会引发一直以来充满争议的“一胎政策”的变动。
After adhering to that policy for 3 decades, the world’s most populous country is aging, and fast. China grew by only 5.8% in the past decade, from 1.27 billion to 1.34 billion. That’s less than half the growth rate of 11.7% for the previous decade, as recorded in the 2000 census. Meanwhile, the proportion of Chinese aged 14 and under fell to 16.6%, compared with 22.9% in the previous census, while the share of those 60 and over increased to 13.3%—some 2.9 percentage points higher than in 2000.
在坚持这项政策30年后，这个世界最人口最多的国家在迅速变老。过去10年，中国从12.7亿变为13.4亿，增长率仅为5.8%。这比2000年统计的11.7%的增长率的一半还要少。然而，14岁以下人口数比例从22.9%降至16.6%，60岁以上人口增长至13.3%，比2000年高出2.9个百分点。
Those statistics suggest a low fertility rate, “confi rm[ing] what demographers in China have long anticipated,” says Wang Feng, a demographer and director of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy in Beijing. Wang estimates the fertility rate at below 1.5 children per couple, although others say it’s too early to know.
这些统计数据表明了一个很低的生育率。人口学家，布鲁金斯公共政策研究中心主任王丰说：“这些数据证实了人口统计学家一直以来的预测。”王丰预计，生育率会低于每对夫妻1.5人，尽管别人说这个数据为时过早。
Either way, China may soon lose the title of most populous country. Projections from the U.S. Census Bureau predict that India, which last month reported a total population of 1.21 billion, will overtake China in 2025. Now that preliminary results from both the Indian and Chinese censuses have come out, Census Bureau demographer Daniel Goodkind wrote in an e-mail, those projections “hold up fairly well.”
无论如何，中国或许会很快从人口最多的国家的头条撤下。上周，美国人口普查局的数据表明，印度人口已达12.1亿，预计在2025年超过中国。在中印双方的初步数据都统计出来后，人口普查局的人口学家丹尼尔•古德坎（Daniel Goodkind）在e-mail中写道，这些预测“相当准确”。
Of greater concern to Chinese demographers are the social and economic effects of these trends. The low birth rate points to labor shortages and the aging population to more challenges for an already overburdened social service system. If current trends continue, says Zhongdong Ma, a demographer at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, China’s fertility rate is in danger of falling below 1.3 children per couple. That would place it among countries with “lowest-low” fertility such as South Korea and Japan.
对中国人口学家们来说，最大的担心是这个人口发展趋势对社会、经济的影响。低生育率会导致劳动力的短缺，人口老龄化会对已经重负不堪的社会福利体系带来更多挑战。香港科技学院的人口学家马忠东说，如果这个趋势不能改变，中国的生育率将会低于每对夫妻1.3人一下。这将会让中国变成生育率“低中之低”的国家序列，比如南韩、印度。
Citing these disruptions to society, Chinese demographers have become increasingly vocal in pushing for an end to the one-child policy adopted in 1980 (Science, 17 September 2010, p. 1458). They hope the census results will bolster their arguments. In a speech broadcast on state television last week, President Hu Jintao stated that China will stick to its birth planning program but talked of tweaking the program—a comment Wang says could mean a “crack at the top.”
由于这些社会问题，中国的人口学家对废除自1980年以来的一胎政策的呼声越来越高。他们希望普查结果能支撑他们的论点。在上周中央电视台的广播讲话中，胡锦涛主席说中国将坚持其计生政策，但也谈到了调整政策的问题，王丰评论说，这是“来自高层的信号”。
This year’s census suggests a growing imbalance in China’s sex ratio at birth. It’s gone from 116.9 boys to 100 girls in 2000 to 118.1 to 100 in the latest census, a change most likely explained by an increase in sex-selective abortion. The effects of the imbalance will only worsen as those in the youngest birth cohorts become adults, Ma says: “In 2 to 3 years, you’ll see the number of females in the marriage market substantially decrease.”
今年的人口普查表明了中国的男女出生比例越来越不平衡。从2000年的116.9，到现在的118.1，这个变化，或许跟越来越多的选择性堕胎有关。这种不平衡带来的不良后果，在那些孩子长大成人后才会现出来，马忠东说：“在2到3年内，你会发现婚姻市场中女性的数量会大幅减少。”
And yet, even as the sex ratio at birth increased, the country’s overall sex ratio—including adults and seniors—fell, from 106.7 males per 100 females in 2000 to 105.2 per 100 now. That drop is puzzling, says Cai Yong, a demographer at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. The 2000 census found that Chinese females were living an average of 3 years longer than males. The 2010 results suggest that the life expectancy gap has widened to about 8 years—a shift Cai calls “almost impossible.” He hopes more detailed data, expected later this year, will explain the mystery.
然而，尽管男孩出生比例变高了，这个国家的整体性别比却从2000年的106.7降至105.2。教堂山北卡罗莱纳学院的一位人口学家蔡勇认为这个现象令人费解。2000年的人口普查发现中国女性的平均寿命比男性高三年。2010年的结果却表明这个寿命差扩大到了8年。蔡勇认为这个变化“难以置信”。他希望得到更详细的数据，在今年晚些时候，他或许能解释这个谜团。
On another note, the census revealed that 49.7% of Chinese now live in cities, compared with 36.2% in the previous census. This decade was the fastest period of urbanization in China’s history. The country’s population is moving eastward, into booming cities like Beijing, while the less developed western provinces of Sichuan, Gansu, and Shaanxi recorded drops in their share of the overall population. Leading the pack is Shanghai, whose 23 million people now account for 1.7% of China’s population.
另一方面，这次普查表明，与上一次36.2%的数据相比，49.7%的中国人居住在城市里。这十年是中国历史书城市化最快的。这个国家的人口在向东移，入驻像北京这样发达的城市，相反的，西部欠发达地区，如四川、甘肃、山西这样的省份，在整体人口数中占的很少。最典型的就是上海，2300万人口，占中国总人口的1.7%
Kam Wing Chan, a geographer at the University of Washington, Seattle, who studies migration in China, wrote in an e-mail that some of the rise could be explained by a new method of counting people that supplemented registration data with a head count and comprehensive interviews in an effort to track down more temporary residents (Science, 22 October 2010, p. 436). The census found 261.4 million unregistered people who have lived at their current residence for at least 6 months—a whopping 81% increase over 10 years ago. But the shift also reflects China’s booming economy, he added.
西雅图华盛顿学院地理学家，在中国研究迁徙现象的陈金永（Kam Wing Chan），在e-mail中写道，其中一些数据的变化可能是新人口统计方法所致，综合调查，增补登记数据，记录了更多的临时居民。这次普查发现有26140万流动居民未登记，这比10年前猛增了81%。但这种变化也表面了中国的经济在飞速发展，他补充道。
As China urbanizes, its population is also rapidly becoming more educated. The number of Chinese with a college degree more than doubled since 2000, to 119.6 million, and the literacy rate rose slightly, to 95.9%. And for the first time the survey, in addition to mainlanders, counted foreigners and residents of Hong Kong and Macau. They total 1 million, including 71,000 Americans. About half of that population has stayed for longer than 2 years.
随着中国的城市化，其人口受教育程度也变高了。中国有大学学历以上的人口数比2000年高出一倍，增至11960万，识字率略微上升，增至95.9%。在第一次调查的时候，除了大陆居民，外国人和港澳居民共有100万，包括71000美国人，他们其中的多半人待在中国两年以上。
Demographers are waiting to see the full census results before drawing conclusions about data quality. But China’s National Bureau of Statistics, at least, is confident about the survey. Its reported undercounting rate dropped to 0.12%, down from 1.81% in 2000, a year the census is thought to have missed 22.5 million Chinese.
人口学家们在等更完整的普查数据出台，再对数据的质量做出结论。但中国国家统计局对这个数据倒是满怀信心。据报道，统计误差率从2000年的1.81%降至0.12%，一年的人口普查被认为少算了2250万中国人。
Chan says the new counting method may have contributed to the drop. Ma, meanwhile, chalks up the change to good publicity and an army of 6.5 million census takers. Such a low undercounting rate, he says, is “amazing for such a large country.” And even as India is closing in on the title of most populous nation, there’s no debate that “large” still applies to China.
陈永金说数据变动主要是因为采用了新的统计方法。而马忠东则归咎于良好的宣传以及650万人口普查工作者的努力。他说，如此低的误差率对这么大的国家来说是惊人的。就算印度正在人口最多的国家的称号，这种程度的“大”，毫无疑问，归中国所有。 |
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