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【原文标题】China’s Yuan Convertible by 2016 in Global Poll Marking Big Investor Shift
【中文标题】全球调查推测人民币2016年可自由兑换,标志着投资者意愿或出现重大转变(此处感谢rhapsody指教)
【登载媒体】彭博
【来源地址】http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-12/china-s-yuan-convertible-by-2016-in-poll.html
【译 者】朱朱(感谢rhapsody指教~~~)
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 本翻译供Anti-CNN使用,未经AC或译者许可,不得转载。
【译 文】
根据彭博的一项投票调查,大多数跨国投资者都预测人民币到2016年将能与其他货币自由兑换,其中半数人认为在十年内人民币将加入美元、日元和欧元成为储备货币。
对1263名彭博客户中的投资者、贸易者或分析家的调查中,57%认为人民币五年之内就可以与其他货币自由兑换。持这种观点的人中有58%是亚洲受访者。19%的受访者认为五年之内人民币就会成为储备货币,另有31%的受访者认为成为储备货币需要十年的时间。
三十年前中国开始鼓励私营企业(此处感谢rhapsody指教),这使得基金经理(此处感谢rhapsody指教)可以在世界第二大经济体更自由的投资。而人民币将能与其他货币自由兑换这个决定应该标志着这三十年来中国最大的政策变化。货币自由兑换将有助于释放(此处感谢rhapsody指教)中国国内储蓄,现在中国国内储蓄高达75.6万亿人民币(11.6万亿美元),甚至比美国国内生产总值的80%还要多。
世界第三大外汇交易商瑞士银行的首席外汇策略师Mansoor Mohi-uddin说,“如果人民币能够与其他货币自由兑换,并且中国的政府债券市场是透明的并能够投资,那将意味着,人民币将成为替代美元的一个可靠选择。而欧元还没能力完成这一任务。”
中国优势
国际货币基金组织的数据显示,尽管1999年欧元的出现使美元的份额有所减少,但美元在近年来仍占据全球储备60%以上的份额,。中国对欧元的优势就在于中国有唯一的国家政府。而希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙所产生的主权债务危机,在欧盟内部引发了争论和分歧。这一点中国能够避免。
中国正在努力使人民币更被国外所接受,虽然还是不能自由兑换。例如,中国在香港为人民币兑换业务建立了一个离岸金融市场。中国还与从印尼至阿根廷的一些国家建立了货币互惠信贷,并用人民币结算一些海外债务,包括委内瑞拉。世界上最大的餐饮连锁麦当劳,去年开始在香港出售人民币债券。
人民币债券
根据彭博的数据,到今年为止,在香港出售的人民币债券已经攀升至400亿元,去年只有360亿。
中国银监会上海银监局的副局长张广平上个月说,香港的人民币储蓄在三月份已经达到4514亿元,这创了历史新高,而且今年年底有望攀至8700亿元。
法国总统萨科齐在三月份说IMF已经开始研究将人民币纳入特别提款权的货币行列内。3月31日在南京举行的一个会议上,欧洲央行行长Jean-Claude Trichet说IMF这个建议值得讨论。
2009年,中国人民银行行长周小川提议使人民币加入特别提款权,特别提款权即由中央银行来掌控的国际货币基金组织记账单位并具备充当国际储备的功能。
比预计的更快
荷兰国际集团驻新加坡的亚洲研究主管Tim Condon称,“周小川已经制定好了一整套的计划使人民币成为主要国际储备,包括成为一个扩大了的特别提款权的成员,人民币能自由兑换是这个计划的一部分。”他还说,“政府已经开始实行这个计划,并且这个计划进展的比大多数人想的都要快。我认为今后会依旧如此。”
根据中国外汇交易中心系统,上海时间11:35分,人民币与美元汇率为6.4976。4月29日汇率达到6.4892,是1993年以来的历史最低。央行每日汇率定价不允许汇率上下浮动超过0.5%。昨天的汇率是6.4948。在过去的一年里,人民币已经升值5%。
根据调查,与投资者形成对比的是,许多经济学家认为人民币在2020年前不会完全自由兑换,甚至有可能更晚。因为,推动这一进程将会加剧房地产和股市泡沫。明年将接任的新一代领导人不会冒险毁掉经济。加拿大皇家银行驻香港的策略师Brian Jackson如是说。
领导层换班
Jackson说,“这是一个缓慢推进的过程。”“有许多改革要进行,尤其是在财政领域。我认为由于领导层要换班,这一过程在接下来的几年有可能会推迟。”
驻北京的经济学家王涛(音译),同时也是瑞士银行分析师Mohi- uddin的同事,拒绝预测人民币自由兑换的日程表。她说,“中国还必须建立健全的财政,宏观调控和汇率监管框架”,这样才能开始人民币自由兑换的进程。
同时,受访者对中国政府优化投资环境的政策不如以往调查的那么乐观了。51%受访者称他们相信胡锦涛主席的政策能帮助投资者。这个数字与2010年9月份进行的三个调查相比少了10个百分点。
亚洲领导人
不过与辛格总理领导的印度、李显龙领导的新加坡以及菅直人领导的日本相比,投资者对胡锦涛政府的信心更大。这三个国家与萨科齐领导的法国一样只获得了25%的投资者的支持率,他们的政策被投资者评价为最无希望可言的。
在所有对亚洲投资的人中,63%的人对胡锦涛与中国比较乐观,而对菅直人和日本的数字为14%。
对投资者来说中国市场在明年会排在第三位仅次美国与巴西。而24%的受访者称中国的投资机会能排在世界前两位。尽管评价如此之高,但与2009年10月份的各项调查相比这个数字还是最低的,不过与2009年1月份的调查结果持平。
55%的受访者和62%的亚洲受访者预测说,摩根斯坦利亚太指数关于中国投资环境的支持率今后的六个月将会升高。在1月份的一个调查中,58%的受访者认为半年后这个指数就会升高,而11月份的一个调查显示64%的人预测该指数会升高。今年伊始该指数就有了些微变化。
日本股票
41%的受访者,包括47%的亚洲受访者预测说,日本邮船日经225指数六个月后将会升高,而23%的人认为该指数会下降。
54%的受访者,包括67%的亚洲受访者认为日本经济在今年3月11日大地震和海啸后会缩水。10%的投资者认为日本能在明年之内解决通货紧缩问题,而21%的人认为这个问题要花上日本至少五年的时间。
5月10日,高盛集团的经济学家降低了他们对日本2011年GDP的估测,认为今年日本GDP将有0.2个百分点的缩水,在2012年缩水还将扩大至2.6%。驻东京的高声分析师Naohiko Baba和Chiwoong Lee之前都预测今年缩水将增加0.7%而2012年将增加2.3%。
2009年以来的最高水平
同时,15%的受访者认为在全球市场中,日本给予了投资者最好的机会,这是自从2009年10月份以来的最高份额。
投资组合高级经理Manoj Wanzare说,日本股市很大程度上忽视了重建的影响。他参与策划了5月9日到10日的全球调查。
Wanzar说随着重建支出的增加,他期待日本经济在接下来的6到12个月能出现回升。
这项调查是Des Moines及驻爱荷华州的塞尔策公司为彭博社所作,调查存在正负2.8%的误差。
【原 文】
Most global investors predict China’s yuan will be convertible into other currencies by 2016, with 50 percent seeing it joining the dollar, yen and euro as a reserve currency within a decade, a Bloomberg poll indicated.
Fifty-seven percent of 1,263 Bloomberg customers surveyed who are investors, traders or analysts, including 58 percent of Asian respondents, said it’s likely the yuan will be convertible in five years. Nineteen percent of respondents said it will become a reserve currency in that time, with an additional 31 percent predicting that step within a decade.
The decision would mark one of the biggest policy changes since China embraced private enterprise three decades ago, enabling fund managers to more freely invest in the world’s No. 2 economy. Convertibility would help unlock domestic Chinese savings, now at 75.6 trillion yuan ($11.6 trillion), equivalent to more than 80 percent of U.S. gross domestic product.
“If we get to the stage that the yuan is convertible and there’s a liquid government bond market available to invest in, it would mean that the Chinese yuan becomes a possible viable alternative to the dollar,” said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief currency strategist at UBS AG in Singapore, the world’s third- biggest foreign-exchange trader. “The euro hasn’t been able to fulfill that.”
China Advantage
While the dollar’s share of global reserves fell after the euro’s 1999 introduction, it has held above 60 percent in recent years, International Monetary Fund data show. One advantage for China over the euro region would be a single national government, avoiding the disputes arising from the sovereign-debt crisis that enveloped Greece, Ireland and Portugal.
China is taking steps to make the yuan more accepted abroad short of convertibility, such as setting up an offshore market for yuan transactions in Hong Kong. It has also entered into currency swaps with nations from Indonesia to Argentina, and denominated some overseas loans, including to Venezuela, in yuan. In Hong Kong, McDonald’s Corp. (MCD), the world’s biggest restaurant chain, sold yuan-denominated bonds last year.
“Certainly we have seen huge steps pointing towards that direction,” said Marcelo Ricaud, a fixed-income sales manager at Standard Chartered Plc in London who participated in the poll, referring to convertibility. “It is interesting to follow the increase in volume” of the offshore yuan in Hong Kong, he said.
Yuan Bonds
Sales of yuan-denominated bonds in Hong Kong have climbed to 40 billion yuan so far this year, from 36 billion yuan last year, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Yuan deposits in Hong Kong rose to a record 451.4 billion yuan in March and may climb to 870 billion yuan by year-end, Zhang Guangping, deputy director general of the China Banking Regulatory Commission’s Shanghai branch, said last month.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said in March that work should start on including the yuan in the currency basket used for the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. At a March 31 conference in Nanjing, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the idea is “worth discussing.”
In 2009, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan proposed making SDRs, the unit of account for IMF loans that’s also held by central banks, function as a working global reserve currency.
Faster Than Expected
“Zhou Xiaochuan has laid out a coherent plan for having the yuan become a major global currency, including becoming a constituent of an expanded SDR -- convertibility is part of this plan,” said Tim Condon, the Singapore-based head of Asia research at ING Groep NV. “The authorities have started implementing the plan and progress has been faster than most expected. I think that will remain the case.”
The yuan was at 6.4976 per dollar at 11:35 a.m. Shanghai time, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The currency reached 6.4892 on April 29, the strongest level since 1993. It isn’t allowed to move more than 0.5 percent either side of the central bank’s daily fixing, which was 6.4948 yesterday. The yuan has gained about 5 percent in the past year.
By contrast with investors in the poll, many economists don’t see the yuan becoming fully convertible until 2020 or later because making the move earlier could stoke real estate and equity bubbles. A new generation of leaders, scheduled to come to power starting late next year, will not want to risk disrupting the economy, said Brian Jackson, a Hong Kong-based strategist with the Royal Bank of Canada.
Leadership Transition
“It’s a slow-moving process,” Jackson said. “There are a lot of reforms, especially in the financial sector, that need to be done. I think it could be delayed by a factor that we are going to have a transition to a new leadership over the next couple of years.”
Wang Tao, a Beijing-based economist and colleague of Mohi- uddin’s at UBS, declined to predict a time-frame for yuan convertibility. “China will have to put in place a sound financial, macro-control and exchange-rate regulatory framework” to enable the step, she said.
Meantime, respondents were less optimistic about Chinese government policies helping the investment climate than in past surveys. Fifty-one percent said they were optimistic President Hu Jintao’s policies would help investors. That is lower by about 10 percentage points than in three previous polls dating back to September 2010 where that question was asked.
Asian Leaders
Still, investors had more confidence in Hu’s government than in India under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Singapore under Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, and Japan under Prime Minister Naoto Kan, who tied with Sarkozy at 25 percent as the leader whose government policies investors judged to be the least promising.
Among Asian investors, 63 percent were optimistic about Hu and China, with 14 percent saying the same about Kan.
China ranked as the third-best market for investors over the next year behind the U.S. and Brazil, with 24 percent of respondents saying the country was among the world’s top two investment opportunities. Even so, that figure was the lowest among seven investor polls dating back to October 2009, though almost even with January’s findings.
Fifty percent of poll respondents and 62 percent in Asia predicted the MSCI Asia Pacific Index would be higher six months from now. In a January poll, 58 percent of all respondents said the index would be higher a half year later and in a November poll 64 percent predicted a rise. The index is little changed from the start of the year.
Japan’s Stocks
Forty-one percent of respondents, including 47 percent in Asia, predicted that the Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average would be higher in six months, with 23 percent saying the index would be lower.
Fifty-four percent of respondents, including 67 percent in Asia, said that Japan’s economy will shrink in the year following the March 11 earthquake and tsunami. Ten percent of investors say Japan can escape deflation within the next year, and 21 percent say it will take more than five years.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists on May 10 lowered their forecasts for Japan’s gross domestic product for 2011, saying GDP will shrink 0.2 percent this year and expand 2.6 percent in 2012. Goldman Tokyo-based analysts Naohiko Baba and Chiwoong Lee had previously seen a 0.7 percent gain for this year and 2.3 percent growth in 2012.
Highest Since 2009
At the same time, 15 percent of respondents said Japan gave investors the best opportunities among global markets, the highest percentage saying that in seven polls dating to October 2009.
“The Japanese equity market is largely discounting the reconstruction story,” said Manoj Wanzare, senior portfolio manager at Plato Investment Management in Sydney and a participant in the global poll that was conducted May 9-10.
Wanzare said he expects the Japanese economy to have an “uptick in activity” within the next six to 12 months as reconstruction spending rises.
The poll was conducted by Des Moines, Iowa-based Selzer & Co. for Bloomberg and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. |
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