纲领性文献？中国硬着陆"Meaningful probability" of a China hard landing: Roubini

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"Meaningful probability" of a China hard landing: Roubini

By Kevin Lim
SINGAPORE | Mon Jun 13, 2011 9:31am EDT

(Reuters) - China faces a "meaningful probability" of a hard economic landing and the euro zone is storing up problems for the future by not tackling the debt crisis head on, said Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the global financial crisis.

He said U.S. Treasury prices, which have risen sharply as investors sought a safe haven from the euro area debt crisis and worries about a slowdown in the global economy, were fairly valued although he was cautious about U.S. equities.

New York-based Roubini is closely followed by Wall Street because he predicted the U.S. housing meltdown that precipitated the global downturn.

China avoided a hard landing during the global credit crunch but faces a downturn after 2013 as it will struggle to keep increasing fixed investments, Roubini said.

"There is a meaningful probability of a hard landing in China after 2013," he told a financial conference in Singapore.

Roubini said investment was already 50 percent of gross domestic product. Sixty years of data had shown that over- investment led to hard landings, he said, citing the Soviet Union in the 1960s and 70s, and East Asia before the 1997 financial crisis.

"I was recently in Shanghai and I took their high-speed train to Hangzhou," he said, referring to the new Maglev line that has cut traveling time between the two cities to less than an hour from four hours previously.

"The brand new high-speed train is half-empty and the brand new station is three-quarters empty. Parallel to that train line, there is a also a new highway that looked three-quarters empty. Next to the train station is also the new local airport of Shanghai and you can fly to Hangzhou," he said.

"There is no rationale for a country at that level of economic development to have not just duplication but triplication of those infrastructure projects."

U.S., EUROPE

Roubini said the risks confronting the global economy were evenly balanced. U.S. corporates had strong cash balances of some $2 trillion and the fact that the global financial crisis was not followed by a great depression were positives.

Persistent debt problems in advanced economies and the fact that U.S. consumption is being sustained by tax cuts and other government support were negatives, he said.

"It is a glass that is half full and half empty," said Roubini, head of an investment advisory firm that bears his name.

Asked about his outlook on U.S. financial markets, Roubini said he would stay defensive on equities but he did not believe there was a bubble in treasuries.

"At current levels, U.S. treasuries are fairly valued. I don't think there is a bond bubble," he said, adding U.S. 10-year bond yields at 3 percent or slightly lower were consistent with the low growth and low inflation outlook for the world's largest economy.

"Every time there is a global bout of risk aversion, and every other week there is another tail risk or black swan event, people dump the euro, dump yen and go to the safety of the U.S. dollar and U.S. treasuries," he added.

U.S. 10-year yields edged up just over half a basis point in Europe on Monday to 2.9802 percent. But they have fallen from 3.7 percent in February and 3.9 percent in April last year.

Other risks to the global economy include the debt problem in Europe's so-called periphery countries and the euro zone's reluctance to address issues head on.

Greece, Portugal and Ireland have been financially bailed out over unsustainable debt levels.

The EU is currently thrashing out a second package for Greece to ensure the country is funded through 2014 but many analysts believe Athens will struggle even then to avoid a harsh debt restructuring in the future.

"Kicking the can down the road, muddling through, extending and pretending that Greece will be better and you buy time... may make the collapse more disorderly over time," he said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2 ... USTRE75C1OF20110613
〔全球经济〕中国硬着陆可能性很大,欧元区料面临更多问题--鲁比尼
2011年 6月 14日 星期二 10:08 BJT

路透新加坡6月13日电---美国经济学家鲁比尼(Nouriel Roubini)表示,中国经济出现硬着陆的可能性很大,欧元区如果不能解决眼下的债务危机,未来可能面临更多问题.

他表示,美国公债价格合理,但他对美国股市心存谨慎.美国公债价格已大幅上涨,因欧元区债务危机以及担忧全球经济放缓,投资者寻求避险投资.

华尔街密切关注鲁比尼的言论,因为他精准预言了美国楼市崩盘.

鲁比尼说,中国在全球信贷紧缩期间避免了经济硬着陆,但2013年以後可能面临下滑,因为其难以一直维持固定投资增长.

"中国经济2013年以後出现硬着陆的可能性非常大,"他在新加坡举行的一个金融会议上说.
http://cn.reuters.com/article/vb ... NnCN109652820110614

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