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美报:中国应听取基辛格的建议领导世界
2011年06月30日 14:26:58 来源： 新华国际 【字号 大小】【收藏】【打印】【关闭】 分享到新华微博
【美国《基督教科学箴言报》网站6月28日文章】题：中国应听取基辛格的建议：你现在高居首位，开始领导吧
而今已88岁高龄的亨利·基辛格，在20世纪70年代与毛泽东坐下来商谈中国开放时，美国正处于鼎盛时期。当时基辛格肯定没有想到，过了还不到半个世纪，在中国共产党充满信心地庆祝建党90周年之际，他会重返北京，将象征着全球领袖地位的指挥棒交给他的东道主。
上周六，中国主办的一个全球化研讨会开幕时，这位伟大的政治家将当今中国比作1947年的美国。
基辛格指出，1947年，英国这个处于没落时期的帝国的外交大臣欧内斯特·贝文迫不得已地对美国国务卿说：“作为最大的债权国，美国现在必须在建立新秩序方面承担领导责任。”由此，美国发起了战后重建的“马歇尔计划”，在20世纪余下的岁月里，美国进入蒸蒸日上的轨道。
作为世界最大债权国，中国现在相当于1947年的美国，处于下一个世界秩序建立的起点。基辛格对他的东道主说，尽管这种从一种体制到另一种体制的转变可能需要30年，但是中国的作用只会扩大，因为从自身利益考虑，在改变全球体制的问题上，它责无旁贷。
在基辛格看来，中国进入领导角色的步伐将加快，因为西方当下停滞不前。
基辛格说的没错。在过去两个世纪，英国和美国先后成为霸权国家，将安全、金融稳定、主要储备货币和开放贸易等“全球公共物品”强加于人。今天，美国以及七国集团越来越没有能力来提供“全球公共物品”。然而以中国为首的新兴国家也没有这种能力。
作为世界最大的债权国，中国可以发挥重要作用的一个领域是，通过经济发展，帮助中东和北非稳定局势———这符合全世界的利益，对能源安全尤其重要。毕竟，中国通过购买遭危机重创的国家的债券，在欧洲发挥了重要作用。
阿拉伯革命爆发后，人们对在中东和北非推行“马歇尔计划”议论纷纷。最近在多维尔召开的八国集团会议上，法国总统萨科齐为此争取到200亿美元的承诺。鉴于发达经济体深陷赤字和主权债务危机，那基本上是个空口承诺。
且不提“马歇尔计划”，二十国集团为何不发起一个“胡锦涛计划”？中国可以与海湾国家一道，从其大量的过剩外汇储备中拿出一部分，造福全世界？
正如基辛格所言，在20世纪下半叶世界秩序的形成过程中，“马歇尔计划”兼顾了正在崛起的美国的责任及其自身利益，现在不正是中国按照这种方式担当新角色的时候吗？美国听取了欧内斯特·贝文的建议是对的。中国听取亨利·基辛格的建议也不会错。(作者内森·加德尔斯)
China should listen to Kissinger: You're on top now, start leading
China has surpassed the US as the world's largest creditor. Beijing must now take on the accompanying leadership role. Instead of a 'Marshall Plan,' why not a 'Hu Jintao plan' that recycles some of China's surplus to benefit the whole global system?
By Nathan Gardels / June 28, 2011
Beijing
When the now 88-year-old Henry Kissinger sat down with Chairman Mao to discuss opening up China back in the 1970s, America was at the peak of its power. It surely never entered Mr. Kissinger’s mind at the time that less than half a century later, as the Communist Party of China confidently celebrates its 90th anniversary, he would be back in Beijing passing the baton of global leadership on to his hosts.
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Opening a conference of China’s most important think tank on globalization last Saturday, the great statesman compared China today to the US in 1947.
After the Napoleonic Wars, Kissinger observed, Britain emerged as the top world power and stayed that way for over a century. But by 1947, Ernest Bevin, foreign secretary in the waning days of the empire, felt compelled to tell his American counterpart that, “as the largest creditor, the US must now take the lead in shaping the new order.” Hence the Marshall Plan launched by the Americans to rebuild after the war, the dominant role of the dollar, and America’s ascendant path for the rest of the 20th century.
As the world’s largest creditor, China is now where America was in 1947, on the cusp of the next world order. Kissinger told his hosts that while this transition from one system to another will likely take another 30 years, China’s role will only grow because it is obliged by its own self-interest to shape the global system that has shifted away from its “North Atlantic pole” toward China and the emerging economies.
RELATED: World's top 5 economies: Most Americans already think China is No. 1
In Kissinger’s view, China will be drafted into leadership at an accelerating pace because of the ongoing paralysis in the West. America, he put it politely, “is absorbed in a debate over the role of government and the sources of vitality in the United States; over how much government we should have and who should pay for it.” Europe is gripped by both “a financial and conceptual crisis, suspended between a national framework and its substitute.”
“A sense of cooperation is critical,” said Kissinger, “because we have entered a new era of complexity and are looking for an overriding framework. We have to adjust to the entry of a whole series of new players” on the global scene. For Kissinger, the “principal instrument of adjustment is the G-20,” where each country must fit its national aspirations into an international arrangement “that avoids a zero sum competition for economic growth.”
A shifting world order
Kissinger is right. In the past two centuries, Britain and then the United States were the hegemonic powers that imposed the “global public goods” of security, financial stability, a major reserve currency, and open trade. Today, the US and the G-7 advanced economies are increasingly unable to provide them. Yet, the emerging economies, led by China, are not yet able to do so.
For this reason, the G-20, which combines both the advanced and emerging economies, must collectively provide these global public goods. In a truly multi-polar world, even one in which China will be the largest economy by 2050, this will be the “new normal” for the foreseeable future |
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发表于 2011-6-30 22:12
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