【Jul 14th 2011 The Economist】Northern Ireland:The fire this time

MacTavish_Tang

Northern Ireland

The fire this time

Violence on the streets raises questions about how deep the peace process goes


http://www.economist.com/node/18958741


BELFAST in flames once again, stones flying, police officers frantically dousing colleagues set alight by petrol bombs: where is the peace process, where the progress? Northern Ireland’s image suffered scorch damage this week as the traditional July marching season produced violence on streets across the province, and injuries both to the police and to prospects for badly needed new investment.

Trouble as usual broke out in the Ardoyne area of north Belfast, after Orangemen walked past on July 12th and local republican youths clashed with the police protecting their path. But this year there were other outbreaks too, with extreme loyalists in the lead. They flared for reasons which illustrate how localised these things have become, how worn the overarching narrative. In east Belfast a loyalist mini-warlord laid on rioting to warn police not to arrest him and his mates for old crimes. In Ballyclare near Belfast loyalists went on the rampage after police removed their flags from outside a Catholic church.

An overall plan seems more in evidence on the republican side, where the security forces take the groups that oppose the peace process, such as the Real IRA, more seriously. Dissident republicans were responsible for this year’s single terrorist-related death in Northern Ireland, that of a police officer, and they harbour ambitions to take bombs to the mainland.

The danger the dissidents pose was highlighted this week in the central government’s new counter-terrorism strategy. The likelihood of an attack by international terrorists was downgraded to “substantial”, while the threat level from Northern Ireland terrorism within the province continued to be classified “severe”. Westminster has committed “significant additional funding”—an extra £200m ($322m) over the next four years—to the Police Service of Northern Ireland to combat it.

Although public support for terrorists is low, it takes only a few hundred idle youths to stage a riot. In Ardoyne and other such places dissident activists can easily direct disaffected young Catholics to traditional flashpoints and point them at police. Little encouragement is needed, since some jobless teenagers regard “recreational rioting” as the high point of their year, offering huge excitement at little risk.

However dramatic this week’s images were, to most people on the ground in Belfast, things seem less than apocalyptic. Serious rioting, once practically routine, now breaks out only a few times a year; truly dangerous injuries are rare; and only a small proportion of rioters are even arrested. No longer are entire communities at each others’ throats. This is not yet a normal society, but it is certainly one in transition, as politics become less tribal and more concerned, as elsewhere, with jobs and growth.

MacTavish_Tang

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