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本帖最后由 lilyma06 于 2011-10-13 09:04 编辑
【中文标题】中国军力超乎预期增长的背后玄机
【原文标题】Behind China's military buildup
【登载媒体】印度斯坦时报
【来源地址】http://www.hindustantimes.com/Behind-China-s-military-buildup/Article1-755831.aspx
【译 者】山子毛毛
【翻译方式】人工
【声 明】欢迎转载,请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译 文】
China's faster-than-expected military buildup has alarmed the United States and its Asian allies and could help the Pentagon gird against deeper defense cuts threatened in some corners of Congress. But even though the sophistication of China's People's Liberation Army has exceeded US military forecasts, there is a recognition within the Pentagon that some of its most-cited conventional capabilities are still in their infancy.
中国军力增长速度超乎外界的预期,令美国及其亚洲盟国感到吃惊,并可能有助于五角大楼消除因部分国会议员提出要求军方进一步削减国防预算开支议案所带来的威胁。但是,即便中国人民解放军的发展水平已经超过美国军方的预期,五角大楼认为中国最受关注的部分常规军力仍处于初级阶段。
China's first aircraft carrier, a refurbished Soviet-era vessel known as the Varyag bought from the Ukraine, began sea trials in July. Chinese sources said Beijing is also building two indigenous carriers, a claim the US military believes is misleading at best.
Admiral Robert Willard, commander of US forces in the Pacific, told Reuters that while China might be pursuing procurement or some other embryonic action on an indigenous carrier, it would be premature to say "a keel is laid."
中国第一艘航空母舰,该舰为从乌克兰购买的前苏联时代航母“瓦良格号”改造而成,并在今年7月进行了航海测试。中国方面消息人士称,中国政府还正在建造两艘国产的航母,而美国军方人士则认为这一消息很可能是在误导人们。
美国太平洋舰队司令部司令威拉德(Robert Willard)告诉路透社,尽管中国可能致力于采购或另外着手打造国产航母的活动,但现在说他们已经具备航母能力仍为时尚早。
Not ten feet tall
Then there is question of China's stealth fighter jet, the J-20, which did its first test flight during a visit by the US defense secretary to China in January.
Despite the attention given to the J-20, the Pentagon does not expect it to achieve an effective operational capability before 2018.
There are also questions about how effective its stealth capability may be. The J-20's test flight proved its stealth design but did not reveal other attributes to help it avoid detection that might come later, sources say.
"China faces several hurdles as it moves toward J-20 production, including the mastery of high performance jet engine production," the Pentagon report said.
并非强大无比
接下来就说说中国隐形重型歼击机——歼20,中国在美国国防部长今年1月访华期间进行了歼-20首次试飞。尽管五角大楼对歼-20的进展进行了关注,但预计该战机在2018年前无法实现有效战斗力。
另外,五角大楼对歼-20的有效隐形能力也存在质疑。消息人士称,歼-20试飞验证了隐形设计,但并没有验证其他有助其躲避未来遇到侦查的能力。
“在歼-20投入生产之前,中国方面仍面临几道障碍,包括掌握高性能飞机发动机的生产技术,”五角大楼的报告称
The United States has had a proper stealth fighter since Lockheed Martin's F-117 Nighthawk made its first flight 30 years ago. That aircraft was retired from service in 2007.
At the same time, the US military believes China appears on track to field a modern, regionally focused military by 2020. A comprehensive strategy to maintain the US edge in the Pacific will require investment, a tough challenge in an era of budget cuts.
The Pentagon now counts a base budget, excluding war costs, of over half a trillion dollars. China downplays its defense spending but acknowledged in March a 12.7% rise in 2011 defense outlays to 600 billion yuan ($94 billion).
自洛克西德-马丁公司生产的F-117“夜鹰”战斗机30年前首飞以来,美国拥有了严格意义上的隐形战机。这种F-117夜鹰已于2007年退役。
与此同时,美国军方认为中国将在2020年跻身集现代化、地区化于一体的军事强国行列。要维持美军在太平洋占优的综合性战略就需要投资,而一个严峻的挑战是国会对军方年度预算的减少
如今,五角大楼给出了不包括战争消耗在内的基本预算开支超过了5000万亿美元。中国国防开支向来不透明,但在三月份曾承认2011年其国防费用上升了12.7%,达到6000亿元(940亿美元)。
The US military's estimates of China offer a more mixed view. This year's assessment noted China's lack of operational experience and large amounts of antiquated hardware but said the PLA was "steadily closing the technological gap with modern armed forces."
Dean Cheng, a China expert at the Heritage Foundation think-tank in Washington, said future Chinese advances like improvements in its anti-ship ballistic missile would influence US risk assessments when deploying near its shores.
That is not to say China will be able to flat-out deny US access to nearby waters any time soon.
"China is on the march in Asia, and its primary target remains democratic Taiwan," said the House Foreign Relations Committee's chairwoman, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.
Dorsett noted China's global aspirations are longer term, seeking to turn its navy into a global power "by the middle years of this century."
"That's their timeline," he said. "Should we expect them to be much more competent 10 years from now than they are today? As long as their economy's robust, absolutely."
美国军方对中国军力的评估观点前后也不是很一致。今年的一份评估中说道:中国军方缺乏联合军事行动的能力且大量的军事硬件设备趋于老化,但是该评估同样也说:中国人民解放军正在逐渐稳步缩小同现代化军事力量之间的差距。
华盛顿传统基金智库的中国问题专家Dean Cheng说:未来中国的优势来自于如改善提高其反舰弹道导弹的性能方面,这将增加美军舰艇在其海岸附近部署的风险。
这不是说中国很快将拥有在近海能精确阻击美军的能力。”中国正在亚洲军事扩张,它的主要目的仍旧是民主的台湾” ,众议院外交关系委员会主席,Ileana Ros-Lehtinen如是说道。
Dorsett说道中国追求全球地位是长期的,到本世纪中叶使得其海军转变为一支全球有影响力军队。
他说“这是他们的时间计划表,预计 一下:10年后中国军力相比如今是否会变得更强大?只要他们的经济持续保持绝对的强势
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