【外交政策111003】美国对中国政策的十大神话

hadrienyoung

【中文标题】美国对中国政策的十大神话

【原文标题】The Top 10 Unicorns of China Policy

【登载媒体】 外交政策

【来源地址】http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/03/the_top_ten_unicorns_of_china_policy?page=0,0

【原文作者】DANIEL BLUMENTHAL

【译者】hadrienyoung

【翻译方式】人工

【声明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。

Unicorns are beautiful, make-believe creatures. But despite overwhelming evidence of their fantastical nature, many people still believe in them. Much of America's China policy is also underpinned by belief in the fantastical: in this case, soothing but logically inconsistent ideas. But unlike with unicorns, the United States' China-policy excursions into the realm of make-believe could be dangerous. Crafting a better China policy requires us to identify what is imaginary in U.S. thinking about China. Author James Mann captures some in his book, The China Fantasy.
Here are my own top 10 China-policy unicorns:
独角兽是美丽的生物，也是幻想中的生物。尽管有大量证据表明独角兽并不存在，但仍然有许多人相信它们是真实的。很多美国对华政策建立在幻想基础上，它们看起来让人宽慰，却没有逻辑。与无害的独角兽不同，将美国对华政策建立在幻想的基础上是危险的。制定更好的对华政策要求分析出美国对中国的认识哪些是幻想的成分。James Mann在他的写的书，关于中国的幻想，就提到了这方面的内容。这里我总结出对华政策的十大独角兽（幻想）。

1. The self-fulfilling prophecy. This is the argument that has the most purchase over the United States' China policy. Treat China like an enemy, the belief goes, and it will become an enemy. Conversely, treat China like a friend, and it will become a friend. But three decades of U.S.-China relations should at least cast doubt on this belief. Since the normalization of relations with China, the aim of U.S. policy has been to bring China "into the family of nations." Other than China itself, no nation has done more than the United States to improve the lot of the Chinese people and welcome China's rise peacefully. And, rather than increase its deterrence of China -- a natural move given the uncertainty attendant to the rise of any great power -- the United States has let its Pacific forces erode and will do so further. The United States may soon go through its third round of defense cuts in as many years. Here is just one example of how unserious the United States is about China: As China continues to build up its strategic forces, the United States has signed a deal with Russia to cap its strategic forces without so much as mentioning China. Unless Beijing was insulted by this neglect, surely it could take great comfort in an anachronistic U.S. focus on arms control with Russia. But despite U.S. demonstrations of benevolence, China still views the United States as its enemy or, on better days, its rival. Its military programs are designed to fight the United States. The self-fulfilling prophecy is far and away the most fantastical claim about China policy and thus the No. 1 unicorn.
1.自我实现的预言。美国对华政策中一个流行的观点是：把中国作为敌人，她就会成为敌人；把中国作为朋友，她就会成为朋友。但是三十年的中美关系对此提出了质疑。自从中美关系正常化后，美国的政策是促使中国融入国际大家庭。除了中国自己，世界上没有其他国家像美国那样致力于改善大多数中国人的生活，乐见中国的崛起。美国已经并将继续缩小在太平洋地区的军事力量，而不是增加军事力量以遏制中国崛起。如果有战略意图不明的国家崛起，对其采取遏制措施是自然的反应。美国可能很快将进行第三轮防务经费裁剪。这里有个例子可以说明美国对中国是不严厉的。当中国持续扩增其战略力量时，美国却与俄罗斯签订限制战略力量发展的条约，其中根本没有提到要限制中国。对于这个忽视，如果北京感到的不是侮辱，那一定是暗自庆幸。尽管美国向中国展示了善意，但中国仍然将美国看作自己的敌人，或者说竞争对手。中国的军事发展计划是以与美国开战为出发点的。自我实现的预言无疑是关于对华政策的最大幻想，因此列为第一神话（独角兽）。

2. Abandoning Taiwan will remove the biggest obstacle to Sino-American relations. Since 2003, when President George W. Bush publicly chided then-Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian on the White House lawn with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at his side, the United States has been gradually severing its close links with Taiwan. President Barack Obama's Taiwan policy has been the logical denouement. Arms sales have been stalled, no cabinet members have visited Taiwan since Bill Clinton's administration, and trade talks are nonexistent. There is essentially nothing on the U.S.-Taiwan policy agenda. The reaction from China? Indeed, it has moved on. But rather than bask in the recent warming of its relationship with Taiwan, China has picked fights with Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and India. It does not matter what "obstacles" the United States removes; China's foreign policy has its own internal logic that is hard for the United States to "shape." Abandoning Taiwan for the sake of better relations is yet another dangerous fantasy.
2.放弃台湾将移走中美关系中的最大障碍。2003年，当小布什总统在白宫草坪上公开批评时任台湾领导人的陈水扁时，中国总理温家宝就在小布什的旁边。从那时起，美国逐渐疏远了与台湾的关系。奥巴马的对台湾政策与此一脉相承。自从克林顿政府时代开始，对台军售陷于停滞，再没有内阁成员访台，贸易谈判也终止。事实上，在美台政策议程上已经没有什么内容了。中国对此的反应是什么呢？是的，是得寸进尺。中国对最近回暖的对台关系并不满足，开始挑衅越南、菲律宾、日本、韩国和印度。在中美关系中，重要的不是美国移走了什么障碍，而是美国很难对中国制定对外政策的内在思路施加影响。放弃台湾以改善中美关系是另外一个危险的幻想。

3. China will inevitably overtake America, and America must manage its decline elegantly. This is a new China-policy unicorn. Until a few years ago, most analysts were certain there was no need to worry about China. The new intellectual fad tells us there is nothing we can do about China. Its rise and America's decline are inevitable. But inevitability in international affairs should remain the preserve of rigid ideological theorists who still cannot explain why a unified Europe has not posed a problem for the United States, why postwar Japan never really challenged U.S. primacy, or why the rising United States and the declining Britain have not gone to war since 1812. The fact is, China has tremendous, seemingly insurmountable problems. It has badly misallocated its capital thanks to a distorted financial system characterized by capital controls and a non-market based currency. It may have a debt-to-GDP ratio as high as 80 percent, thanks again to a badly distorted economy. And it has created a demographic nightmare with a shrinking productive population, a senior tsunami, and millions of males who will be unmarriageable (see the pioneering work of my colleague Nick Eberstadt).
3.中国超越美国不可避免，美国必须正确应对自身的衰落。这是对华政策的一个新神话。直到几年以前，分析家们还信誓旦旦的说没有必要担心中国。但新的流行说法却是我们对中国的崛起已经无能为力了。中国崛起和美国衰落已成为必然。但是，国际事务中的必然性只存在于思想僵化的意识形态理论家的头脑中，他们不能解释为什么统一的欧洲并没有对美国构成问题，为什么战后的日本没有真正对美国的优势地位构成挑战，为什么自1812年以来崛起的美国和衰落的英国之间没有发生战争。事实上，中国自身存在很多难以解决的问题。以限制资本流通、非市场化的货币政策为特征的不完善的金融体系导致了资本严重不合理配置。中国极度扭曲的经济使债务量达到了GDP的80%。人为造成的噩梦是不断减少的出生人口，更为严重的是将有上千万的男性找不到老婆。

The United States also has big problems. But Americans are debating them vigorously, know what they are, and are now looking to elect the leaders to fix them. China's political structure does not yet allow for fixing big problems.
美国也有自己严重的问题。但美国人在积极地讨论这些问题，知道这些问题是什么，并选择适当的领导人来解决这些问题。中国的政治结构对这些问题是无能为力的。

4 (related to 3). China is America's banker. America cannot anger its banker. In fact, China is more like a depositor. It deposits money in U.S. Treasurys because its economy does not allow investors to put money elsewhere. There is nothing else it can do with its surpluses unless it changes its financial system radically (see above). It makes a pittance on its deposits. If the United States starts to bring down its debts and deficits, China will have even fewer options. China is desperate for U.S. investment, U.S. Treasurys, and the U.S. market. The balance of leverage leans toward the United States.
4.中国是美国的银行家。美国不能得罪银行家。事实上，中国更像储户。因为中国的经济体系不允许投资者将资金投入到其他领域，中国只能大量购买美国国债。如果不对中国的金融体系进行彻底地改革，就不能改变当前这种状况。中国从这些投资中获利甚微。如果美国开始削减债务和赤字，中国可选择的范围就更小。中国需要美国的投资、美国的国债、美国的市场。中美之间的这种杠杆平衡是有利于美国的。

5. America is engaging China. This is a surprising policy unicorn. After all, the United States does have an engagement policy with China. But it is only engaging a small slice of China: the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The party may be large -- the largest in the world (it could have some 70 million members). The United States does need to engage party leaders on matters of high politics and high finance, but China has at least 1 billion other people. Many are decidedly not part of the CCP. They are lawyers, activists, religious leaders, artists, intellectuals, and entrepreneurs. Most would rather the CCP go quietly into the night. America does not engage them. U.S. presidents tend to avoid making their Chinese counterparts uncomfortable by insisting on speaking to a real cross-section of Chinese society. Engagement seen through the prism of government-to-government relations keeps the United States from engaging with the broader Chinese public. Chinese officials come to the United States and meet with whomever they want (usually in carefully controlled settings and often with groups that are critical of the U.S. government and very friendly to the Chinese government). U.S. leaders are far more cautious in choosing with whom to meet in China. The United States does not demand reciprocity in meeting with real civil society -- underground church leaders, political reformers, and so on. China has a successful engagement policy. America does not.
5.美国正在接触中国。这是一个令人惊异的政策神话（独角兽）。美国确实制定了与中国接触的政策，但接触的仅仅是中国的极少部分，即中共，虽然中共是一个有7000万成员的世界第一大政党。美国需要在政治和金融领域与中共领导人接触，但美国没有接触到的还有一个10亿人以上的群体。他们中的许多人不是中共成员，而是律师、社会活动家、宗教领袖、艺术家、知识分子和企业家。许多人都希望中共走向黑暗的深渊。美国没有接触到这些人。美国总统往往通过直言中国社会的现实来避免让中国领导人感到不快。政府层面的接触让美国与中国公众接触的机会减少了。中国官员到访美国，会见的是他们相见的人（通常是经过精心选择的人，他们对美国政府持批评态度，但对中国政府非常友好）。美国领导人选择在中国会见什么人是非常谨慎小心的。美国没有要求会见真正的民间代表人士，例如地下教会领袖，政治改革者。中国的接触政策是成功的，但美国并不成功。

6. America's greatest challenge is managing China's rise. Actually, America's greatest challenge will probably be managing China's long decline. Unless it enacts substantial reforms, China's growth model may sputter out soon. There is little if nothing it can do about its demographic disaster (will it enact a pro-immigration policy?). And its political system is too risk averse and calcified to make any real reforms.
6.美国最大的挑战是如何应对中国的崛起。事实上，美国最大的挑战可能将是如何应对中国长期的衰落。除非中国进行切实的改革，中国的增长模式将是昙花一现。中国也缺少应对人口危机的手段（制定促进移民的政策？）。同时中国的政治体制已经极度招人厌并过度僵化，不可能进行真正的改革。

7. China's decline will make our lives easier. China's decline may make the challenge for the United States more difficult for at least a generation. It could play out for a long time, even as China grows more aggressive with more lethal weaponry (e.g., what to do with surplus males?). Arguably, both Germany and imperial Japan declined beginning after World War I and continuing through the disaster of World War II. Russia is in decline by all useful metrics. Even so, it invaded a neighbor not too long ago. A declining, nuclear-armed nation with a powerful military can be more problematic than a rising, confident nation.
7.中国衰落将使我们生活得更惬意。中国衰落可能使美国至少一代人面对更加严峻的挑战。中国的衰落会是一个长期的过程，这期间，中国因为拥有了更致命的武备（例如，过剩的男性）可能会更加咄咄逼人。历史上就有这样的例子，德国和日本帝国在第一次世界大战就开始衰落，并一直持续到二战。当俄国被大量溢美之词包围时，她已经处于衰落之中。即使如此，俄国在不久之前仍然入侵了她的邻国。与一个处于崛起中、有自信的国家相比，一个正在衰落、有核武器、有强大军事力量的国家更让人头疼。

8. America needs to extricate itself from the "distractions" of the Middle East and South Asia to focus on China. This is a very popular unicorn among the cognoscenti. But how would this work? As Middle Easterners go through a historic revolution that could lead to the flowering of democracy or the turmoil of more extremism, how does America turn its attention elsewhere? Is it supposed to leave Afghanistan to the not-so-tender mercies of the Taliban and Pakistani intelligence? This view is particularly ironic given China's increased interests in the Middle East and the U.S. need for a partnership with India to deal with China. The United States has no way of creating the kind of order it wishes to see in Asia without exerting a great amount of influence over the oil-producing states in the Middle East and by allowing India to become tied down in a struggle in South Asia. America is the sole superpower; its foreign policy is interconnected. "Getting Asia right" means "getting the Middle East and South Asia right."
8.美国应该从中东和南亚抽身出来将重心放在中国身上。这是在专家中非常流行的一个神话（独角兽）。但这可行吗？当中东的人们正在经历一场历史性的革命，这场革命或者将导致民主之花处处开遍或者导致更多的极端主义混乱，美国怎么能将注意力放在其他地方？难道将阿富汗留给毫无怜悯之心的塔利班和巴基斯坦情报机构？当中国对中东事物越来越关心、美国应对中国又需要印度参与时，这种观点显得特别具有反讽意味。如果美国放弃使用对中东产油国的巨大影响力、将印度束缚在南亚，那么美国将不可能在亚洲建立一种自己希望看到的秩序。美国是唯一超级大国，她的外交政策是相互关联的。“控制亚洲”就意味着必须“控制中东和南亚”。
9. America needs China's help to solve global problems. This is further down on my list because it is not really a fantastical unicorn. It is true. What is a fantasy is that China will be helpful. The United States does need China to disarm North Korea. It does not want to, and North Korea is now a nuclear power. The same may soon be true with Iran. The best the United States can get in its diplomacy with China is to stop Beijing from being less helpful. It is a fact that global problems would be easier to manage with Chinese help. However, China actually contributing to global order is a unicorn.
9.美国需要中国的帮助以解决全球问题。将这个放在10大神话靠后的位置是因为它不是真正的神话（独角兽），而是真实的。这个问题的幻想部分是中国愿意提供帮助。美国确实需要中国帮助去解除朝鲜的武装。但中国并不愿意这么做，而且朝鲜已经拥有了核武器。在伊朗问题上，情况也将可能如此。美国同中国的外交沟通能达到的最佳效果就是阻止北京不要减少帮助。毫无疑问，有了中国的帮助处理全球问题将更加容易。但是，中国有助于建立全球秩序将是个神话（独角兽）。

10. Conflict with China is inevitable. A fair reading of the nine "unicorns" above may lead to the conclusion that America is destined to go to war with China. It may be a fair reading, but it is also an inaccurate one. Sino-American relations will be determined by two main drivers -- one the United States can control, one it cannot. The first is the U.S. ability to deter aggressive Chinese behavior. The second is how politics develop in China. The strategic prize for Washington is democratic reform in China. Democracy will not solve all Sino-American problems. China may be very prickly about sovereignty and very nationalistic. But a true liberal democracy in China in which people are fairly represented is the best hope for peace. The disenfranchised could force their government to focus resources on their manifold problems (corruption, misallocated resources, lack of a social safety net). The United States and the rest of Asia will certainly trust an open, transparent China more, and ties would blossom at the level of civil society. Historically, the United States has almost always been on China's side. It is waiting patiently to do so again.
10.与中国的冲突不可避免。公正的看待以上九个神话（独角兽）将会得出这样的结论：美国与中国将注定走向战争。虽然看法是公正的，但也是不准确的。中美关系的走向受两个主要因素决定，即美国能控制的部分和美国不能控制的部分。美国能控制的部分是指美国阻止中国进攻性行为的能力。美国不能控制的部分是指中国国内政治的变化。对华盛顿而言，中国进行民主改革是一个战略奖赏。当然，民主不能解决中美之间的所有问题。中国可能会在主权问题上进行挑衅，可能会变得更加民族主义，但在中国施行能代表大众的、真正的自由民主将是和平的最大希望。侵犯公民的权利将迫使政府将资源用于解决诸如腐败、不合理的资源配置、社会保障网络缺乏等问题。美国和其他亚洲国家肯定会更信任一个开放、透明的中国，在民间社会层次的关系将会硕果累累。从历史上看，美国几乎总是站在中国这边。美国将耐心等待这个时刻再次来临。

重甲与巨槌

中国现有多少个神话呢？

沫☆北

作者和我是生活在同一个空间吗？

插队在德国

这篇文章把中国和美国对调其实也没有任何问题……

hadrienyoung

作者和我是生活在同一个空间吗？
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从中国的角度看，作者在这篇文章中表现出美国人的高傲，以及对中国的一知半解。站在现实的角度看，作者的观点确实代表了美国外交领域一部分人的想法，而且这些观点不可避免会或多或少影响到美国对华政策。这也正是现实中的无奈。

cofy

这帮半瓶子醋在人在帮美国出谋划策，美国不给败光还真难。

mytforu

    不知道这作者是无知还是无耻。不跟中国谈判战略武器限制条约就是对中国的善意，那美国也没跟朝鲜伊朗伊拉克阿富汗谈判限制战略武器啊，看来美国对中国的善意跟对朝鲜伊朗的善意差不太多啊。

ss00

他并不是说“不跟中国谈判战略武器限制条约就是对中国的善意”，我想他是认为美国受“把中国作为敌人，她就会成为敌人；把中国作为朋友，她就会成为朋友”观点的影响对中国采取了善意——至少他认为不是敌意的政策，从而对中国遏制不够：也就是说，他认为也应该谈判限制中国的战略武器——从另外一个角度来说，这也就可以看出美国和俄罗斯谈判这个目的何在了。