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【中文标题】中国究竟伟大在哪里？
【原文标题】What's So Great About China?
【登载媒体】福布斯
【原文作者】Kenneth Rapoza
【原文链接】http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2011/07/31/whats-so-great-about-china/
哪个国家通过其对资源无止境的需求和膨胀的中产阶级主导着世界经济的走向？中国。哪个国家是除美国人固定收入投资者之外的美国经济的最大资助方？还是中国。一提到投资，几乎没有人对中国恶语相向，它正在取代美国成为全球经济增长的引擎。它的14亿人口把台湾菠萝蛋糕这种不值一提的旅游商品迅速捧红，甚至台湾都没有足够的菠萝来让中国旅游者购买。简而言之，中国对世界经济的作用就像奥普拉•温弗瑞（译者注：当今世界上最具影响力的黑人女性之一。控股哈普娱乐集团的股份，个人财富超过10亿美元。她主持的电视谈话节目“奥普拉脱口秀”，平均每周吸引3300万名观众，并连续播出23年。）对出版商的作用一样。
当然，永远会有一些中国看衰论者。他们的观点是，由于房地产业的泡沫现象，中国的银行被不良贷款侵蚀得千疮百孔。具体程度不得而知，因为中国的信息相当不透明。中国四大国有银行的确曾经出现过问题，它们不过是和美国政府一样，通过创建一个实体来买下所有不良贷款，以便让四大银行的账面干净一些。中国的房地产和信贷泡沫具体糟糕到什么程度？香港霸菱资产管理（亚洲）有限公司旗下的大中华基金（GCH）投资经理邓鸿文说，中国的不良贷款比例其实相当的低。那些看空者所预测的让中国步下神坛的金融危机或许永远不会成为现实。
邓最近在接受福布斯采访时说：“从香港的角度看来，我个人认为中国并不存在信用和资产泡沫。”
她说：“大笔资金投入到建筑行业，这在整个银行系统中占据了很大的比重。但这完全是讲得通的。说到房地产，我不认为这里有任何全国性的泡沫现象。我们的确看到像北京和上海这样的一线城市，房地产泡沫以虚高的价格呈现出来。但是中国整体的需求和经济增长在过去许多年里是相当稳定的，我们有理由相信，在未来，中国还会延续过去2到5年里的那种发展势头。所以，最终我们还是会调整供应量。我认为中国不会发生房地产开发商破产或者大范围的资产泡沫现象，北京的领导层有能力解决这样的问题。”
中国中央政府采取了一些行动来延缓经济增长步伐。通货膨胀依然较高，大部分原因在于消费者的需求、强大的人民币汇率、走高的收入水平和进口商品价格的上涨。然而，政府在压制对居住类建筑和现存房地产需求方面，表现出了特别的兴趣。
如果政府能够成功地控制通货膨胀，那么中国的经济或许不会再以两位数增长，但投资者都期望增长幅度不要低于7％。房地产价格会依旧上涨，但是不会超过通货膨胀5.5％的幅度。人民币的继续升值，以及收入水平的上升都会让中国消费者更加富有。邓说，中国是一个具有同质化的社会，如果一个中国人喜欢Twinkletoes鞋子，那么另外一百万中国人也会喜欢。
她手中的4.43亿美元资金更加侧重房地产行业，与拉塞尔大中华指数相比较，金融方面的投资稍显不足。她持有中国建设银行——目前他们最大的投资对象——和中国工商银行这两家国有银行的股份。尽管银行业GCH中的比重并不大，但是邓认为银行是长期投资者最可靠的财产。
中国建设银行的贷存比例不到80％，所以她认为目前还没有调整的必要。对银行来说，如果你有10美元存款，仅借出75美分，那么你就太保守了。如果你有10美元，借出100美元，那么你是高盛。
中国人民银行曾经要求银行的存款准备金率为20％。中国总体的不良贷款（NPL）比例不到2％，尽管市场上出于对政府大规模发展项目的考虑认为这个数字应当更高。对中国金融发展持乐观态度的邓说：“即使加上2008年金融危机之后开始的那些大型项目，NPL也不到5％。如果看具体金额，5％的确是一个庞大的数字。但是如果看看中国建设银行和其它银行的贷款总金额，这就变得微不足道了。”2008年之后，中国的金融监管机构成功地让各大银行迅速减债。
邓对中国的看好得到了回报。2011年3月31日，大中华基金的销售额增长了10％，而中国基金行业类别证券平均跌价22％。邓的基金长期回报率维持在20.3％，拉塞尔大中华指数是16.3％，行业平均指数是15.9％。
截止到目前，大中华基金超过了安硕新华富时中国25指数（FXI）。由于他们在房地产方面的投资策略和金融机构的新政，他们的增长都有所降低，但是新华富时截止到2011年7月31日下降了1.7％，而GCH只下降了1.1％。在过去12个月里，GCH以11.4％的增长全面超越了FXI的2.7％增长。邓的基金收益率达8.7％，甚至超过了马修中国基金和另外一个来自波士顿的封闭式基金竞争者CHN，后者到目前为止的增长是6.3％。自从大中华在90年代初期开展业务以来，它不断刷新自己的纪录。截止到2011年6月30日，它的增长幅度为9.1％，而拉塞尔大中国平均指数为0.5％。
除了房地产行业，邓的基金还青睐电信和科技业。在电信领域，邓喜欢中国联通（CHU），因为它是唯一一家使用iPhone和iPad的无线通讯服务商，还有苹果（AAPL），它主导了中国的平板电脑市场。
她说：“中国联通可以销售iPhone和iPad，这是它股票升值的增长点。中国移动、中国联通和中国电信有不同的技术策略，而苹果只选择了中国联通。中国移动的卖点是3G，这种本土技术基本上不被国际大品牌所采纳。中国移动因此丢失了市场份额，而中国联通乘虚而入。我们当然也喜欢中国移动，因为它有一些折扣措施。但是中国联通的战略更符合一个成功者的背景，这就是为什么投资者在中国投资的原因。”
在科技领域，新浪公司一家独大。新浪是一家互联网和社交网络巨人，它的微博平台用户比推特全球的用户还要多。
“中国的网络渗透率依然很低，有漫长的发展前景。很多中国互联网公司的股票价格已经非常高了，比如腾讯几年前单股售价2到3美元，现在是140美元。百度的股价一直很高，但他们依然持续发布令人惊讶的赢利报表，其盈利率自从上市以来已经翻了50倍。”
不久之前，中国政府为了向其隔海相望的政治对手示好，允许中国公民到岛上旅游。从政治意义上讲，这样的法令就好像华盛顿允许美国人到古巴去旅游，并且可以带回雪茄。虽然中国人并没有从台湾带回雪茄，但是他们带回了台湾标志性的食品菠萝蛋糕。邓说，菠萝蛋糕的销量因为中国人的需求而每年增长40％。中国与台湾之间不断加强的关系也有利于台湾上市公司。
中国的伟大之处就在于它在过去十年里的伟大历程。当1％的人口有了足够了钱来买汽车，把手中的自行车变为别克，就可以让中国成为通用汽车的最大市场，就可以解释油价在前几年超过每桶100美元的原因。当同样这些人想多吃一些东西时，大豆的价格就会像受到天气因素影响一样飙升，从衣阿华到巴西帕拉那的农民就有了一个稳定的客户群。
国际基金组织预测中国经济在2011年将增长9.1％。
原文：
What country is basically carrying the world economy, both as a resource vacuum and with its growing middle class? China. Which country outside of the US fixed income investor is the largest financier of the US? China…again. When it comes to investing, few people are bearish about China. It’s fast replacing the US as the engine of growth worldwide. It’s 1.4 billion people can turn something as unglam and ordinary as a touristy Taiwenese pineapple cake into an item so hot that Taiwan barely has enough pineapples to keep China visitors buying. In short, China is to the world economy what Oprah Winfrey is to book sellers.
Sure there are China naysayers out there. Their argument is that China banks are riddled with bad loans from real estate projects gone sour, and nobody truly knows how bad it is because China is not transparent. China’s had this problem before with its big four government owned banks and basically did what the US government did by creating an entity to buy up all that bad debt in order to keep the big four’s books squeeky clean. How bad is the real estate and credit bubble in China? Agnes Deng, the portfolio manager at the closed-end Greater China Fund (GCH) run by Baring Asset Management Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong says China’s non-performing loans are actually quite low. The banking crisis that the bears are forecasting will take China down from its pedastal may never prove valid.
“From where we sit here in Hong Kong, I personally don’t believe there is a credit or asset bubble in China,” Deng told Forbes recently.
“A lot of money has been going into construction and that kind of debt is heavy in the overall banking system. But it is reasonably OK. In terms of property, we don’t believe there is any national bubble for the property sector. We do see it in the first tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai, but notice that the overall demand and economic growth in China has been quite steady over the last many years and that growth will continue to carry out the momentum we have seen in the last two to five years. So we will eventually adjust to some of the oversupply in construction projects in the pipeline,” she says. “I wouldn’t bet on a housing developers crash or a broadbased asset bubble in China. The leadership in Beijing should be able to solve this issue.”
China’s central government has been forcing a slowdown of the national economy. Inflation remains high, mostly due to consumer demand, a stronger currency, higher incomes, and imported inflation from commodities. However, the government has taken a special interest in reducing demand for residential construction and existing properties.
If the government is successful at keeping inflation in check, then China’s growth might not be in the double digits, but investors expect it to remain well above 7%. Housing will trend higher, but grow below inflation levels of 5.5%. A gradual appreciation of the currency, the yuan, and higher incomes is making Chinese consumers richer. It’s a homogenous society, so if one Chinese person likes Twinkletoes shoes, then a million more are sure to like it, too, says Deng.
Her $443 million fund is overweight real estate, but underweight financials compared to the benchmark Russell Greater China index. She holds China Construction Bank — their biggest holding currently — and the Industrial and Commerical Bank of China, both state owned. Even though banks are an underweight for the fund, Deng thinks China banks are solid assets for long term investors.
China Construction Bank’s loan to deposit ratio is less than 80%, so it is not leveraged at all, she says. For banks, if you have 10 dollars and lend out 75 cents, you’re conservative. If they have 10 dollars and lend out 100, they’re Goldman Sachs.
The People’s Bank of China has been requiring banks to keep 20% of their reserves in central bank reserves as a guarantee. China’soverall non-performing loans (NPL) is below 2%, even though the market is thinking the numbers are higher because some government development projects have gone sour. “If you include those projects since the financial crisis of 2008, then the NPL ratio is still going to be below 5%,” she says, cheerleading for China’s financials. “As an aggregate amount, five percent is quite big. Computed with the overall loan book that the China Construction Bank or Chinese banking overall has, then it is really quite small. China’s banking regulators have done a good job getting the financials to deleverage quickly after 2008.”
Deng’s take on China has paid off. The Greater China Fund’s sales growth percentage as of March 31, 2011 was 10% compared to a sell-off in the China fund category averages of 22%. Deng’s fund’s long term earnings percentage is 20.3% compared with 16.3% for the Russell Greater China index and 15.9% for the category average.
Year-to-date, the Greater China Fund has outperformed the iShares FTSE Xinhua China 25 (FXI). Both are down on the year thanks to their real estate and banking positions, but the FTSE China is down 1.7% as of July 31, 2011 and GCH is down 1.1%. Over the last 12 months, GCH has clobbered the FTSE China, up 11.4% to the iShares’ gain of 2.7%. Deng’s fund has even outperformed the Matthews China Fund (MCHFX), up 8.7% and another closed-end competitor from Boston, the China Fund (CHN), which is up 6.3% YTD. Since the fund launched in the early 1990s, its beat its benchmark. It’s up 9.1% as of June 30, 2011, while the benchmark Russell Greater China is down 0.5%.
Besides real estate, the fund is also overweight telecom and technology. On the telecom side, Deng likes China Unicom (CHU) because it is the only wireless mobile provider that uses the iPhone and iPad, and Apple (AAPL) dominates China’s tablet market.
“China Unicom sells iPhones and iPads and that’s a big plus for that stock. China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom all use different technology, so Apple is just China Unicom,” she says. “China Mobile is 3G and uses a home grown technology that the overall big brand names do not use. China Mobile ends up losing market share because of that and China Unicom gains market share. We still like China Mobile because it trades at a discount, but China Unicom is more of a growth story and that is the main reason why investors invest in China…for growth.”
On the tech side, it’s SINA Corporation (SINA) all the way. Sina’s an internet and social networking powerhouse that runs the weibo platform, a China microblog that has more users nationwide than Twitter has worldwide.
“China’s internet penetration is still low. There is a long way to grow. Many China internet stocks have been quite expensive, like Tencent Holdings a few years ago it was around $2 to $3 and now its around $140. Baidu (BIDU) has always been expensive, but they just keep reporting amazing earnings with upside and that has them trading at fifty times p/e because they are growing phenomonally.”
Not too long ago, the Chinese government, in its attempt to lend a fig leaf to its offshore political rival, Taiwan, allowed for Chinese nationals to travel to the island. Politically, the permission slip is like Washington letting Americans travel to Cuba and bring back cigars. While Chinese aren’t returning from Taiwan with cigars, they are returning with Taiwan’s signature pineapple cakes. As a result, says Deng, Pineapple cake sales are up 40% year over year because of China demand. China’s growing relationship with Taiwan is also good for Taipei listed companies.
What’s so great about China is basically what’s been great about China for the last 10 years. When 1% of the population earns enough to buy an automobile and trades in a bicycle for a Buick, it makes China General Motors’ biggest market; it drives the fundamentals behind oil futures over $100 on average in the years ahead. When the same amount are eating more, it drives the price of soybeans as much as the weather and keeps farmers from Iowa to Parana, Brazil with a reliable customer.
The International Monetary Fund expects China to grow around 9.1% in 2011.
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发表于 2011-10-18 10:10
